{"id":45380,"date":"2019-02-12T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2019-02-12T00:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=45380"},"modified":"2021-01-27T09:38:18","modified_gmt":"2021-01-26T22:38:18","slug":"us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

If the past year is any indication of the year ahead, US policy in Asia will be erratic and self-serving. The beginnings of an\u00a0Indo-Pacific strategy<\/a>\u00a0notwithstanding, the Trump administration continues to work out its issues with countries in the region bilaterally and sporadically.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s trade confrontation with China is yet to produce a negotiated solution. The challenge is\u00a0structural<\/a>\u00a0and no amount of\u00a0Chinese promises to \u2018buy American\u2019<\/a>\u00a0will fix the underlying problems.<\/p>\n

The challenge posed by Chinese companies is felt far beyond the US government. The Department of Justice\u2019s enforcement of US law on companies accused of commercial espionage and cyber theft is only strengthening. Beyond the high-profile detention in Canada and pending extradition of Huawei\u2019s CFO Meng Wanzhou, numerous indictments of\u00a0Chinese companies<\/a>\u00a0are being pursued.<\/p>\n

Without real change in Beijing\u2019s enforcement of intellectual property theft, simply shifting the trade balance towards a more favourable direction for the United States will be insufficient to address the economic strain.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s approach to China is not only about commerce. Vice President Mike Pence\u2019s\u00a0speech<\/a>\u00a0in October made that clear. A wide-ranging critique of China\u2019s behaviour in the US and efforts to expand its influence abroad, the speech was welcomed by some in Asia as evidence that the US is ready to stand up to China.<\/p>\n

But across the\u00a0Indo-Pacific<\/a>\u00a0a more openly pugilistic US relationship with China unsettles nerves. Is it a \u2018new cold war<\/a>\u2019? Not yet, but the US and China are clearly on a deeply contentious path. It\u2019s an open question whether Washington is up to the challenge of engaging in sustained, strategic competition with Beijing and whether it can maintain the like-minded regional coalition that will be necessary.<\/p>\n

A second challenge for Washington is realising the promise of threat reduction claimed by Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore. The president is fond of declaring his administration\u2019s diplomacy with Kim a success, but his own\u00a0intelligence agencies<\/a>\u00a0disagree that North Korea is prepared to denuclearise.<\/p>\n

Over the past year, to be sure, there were no missile or nuclear tests. Yet there was also no progress in getting Pyongyang to catalogue its nuclear and missile facilities or to open its production sites for international inspection. The on-again, off-again diplomacy to set up a second summit suggested a major setback. But Trump and Kim will now meet in Vietnam on 27 and 28 February.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the most pervasive problem for US foreign-policymakers is not the behaviour of other global actors, in Asia or elsewhere. Crippling divisions within the Trump administration itself, and between the administration and the legislative and judicial branches of the US government, could make any attempt to marshal US resources into foreign relations almost impossible.<\/p>\n

With the government shutdown, the Mueller investigation and its criminal indictments, and the increased scrutiny of Congress on the administration, it will be a year of domestic entanglement for the president and his White House.<\/p>\n

The foreign policy consequences of this domestic turbulence cannot be overlooked. Already, the Trump administration\u2019s decision-making has led to the loss of advisers with critical foreign policy expertise, such as former defence secretary Jim Mattis. There also seems to be a much-diminished capacity within the White House for organised intra-agency debate over US strategic priorities.<\/p>\n

Some think that the president is now more empowered to act in line with his ambitions, and so foreign policy will become\u00a0more aligned<\/a>\u00a0with his \u2018America First\u2019 premise. Perhaps that\u2019s true. But even if there are fewer experts in the government to challenge Trump\u2019s vision, he will still have to implement his goals. And that may become more difficult than ever.<\/p>\n

Frustrations at home could just as easily produce even more brittle and reactive decision-making by the president, making it impossible to reach or implement meaningful agreements with others around the globe. Also worrisome is that, with all this domestic contest, the Trump administration will be overly eager to create evidence of foreign policy successes. Prematurely declaring victory in the trade war with China or in negotiations with North Korea could leave the region, and the globe, less stable.<\/p>\n

As former deputy secretary of state Antony Blinken pointed out, for all the Trump administration\u2019s breathless talk of crises, the president has yet to face a real challenge<\/a>\u00a0to US interests. A crisis could expose the administration\u2019s haphazard decision-making procedures and its intragovernmental divisions. Congress is growing more active in trying to assert its role in a crisis, with some members proposing\u00a0limits<\/a> on the president\u2019s use of nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

US success in mitigating strategic tensions with China is unlikely, and no US president has yet found the magic solution to persuading Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear quest.<\/p>\n

Nor does Washington seem well placed to assist its friends and allies with their own problems. Of particular concern is the deteriorating relationship between Japan and South Korea. This is a moment that cries out for diplomatic assistance from countries like the US, which see what the heightened risk of a military clash could mean for the future of Northeast Asia.<\/p>\n

Add to that the alarming signs that Trump really does want to step back from US treaty commitments to allies in NATO, South Korea and perhaps even Japan, and 2019 could end up being a far bigger watershed in US policy towards Asia than anyone cares to imagine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If the past year is any indication of the year ahead, US policy in Asia will be erratic and self-serving. The beginnings of an\u00a0Indo-Pacific strategy\u00a0notwithstanding, the Trump administration continues to work out its issues with …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":913,"featured_media":45393,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[354,52,1428,86,2070],"class_list":["post-45380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-asia","tag-china","tag-donald-trump","tag-north-korea","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS policy in Asia heads from bad to worse | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If the past year is any indication of the year ahead, US policy in Asia will be erratic and self-serving. The beginnings of an\u00a0Indo-Pacific strategy\u00a0notwithstanding, the Trump administration continues to work out its issues with ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-02-12T00:00:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-01-26T22:38:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/47006678031_72ed2212a1_z.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"427\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sheila A. Smith\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sheila A. Smith\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/47006678031_72ed2212a1_z.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/47006678031_72ed2212a1_z.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":427},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/\",\"name\":\"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-12T00:00:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-01-26T22:38:18+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8346da0b408c793929e21619971798d0\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8346da0b408c793929e21619971798d0\",\"name\":\"Sheila A. Smith\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/49c1e857fce1b168ffb358a662f913aa?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/49c1e857fce1b168ffb358a662f913aa?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Sheila A. Smith\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/sheila-a-smith\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse | The Strategist","og_description":"If the past year is any indication of the year ahead, US policy in Asia will be erratic and self-serving. The beginnings of an\u00a0Indo-Pacific strategy\u00a0notwithstanding, the Trump administration continues to work out its issues with ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-02-12T00:00:26+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-01-26T22:38:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":640,"height":427,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/47006678031_72ed2212a1_z.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Sheila A. Smith","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Sheila A. Smith","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/47006678031_72ed2212a1_z.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/47006678031_72ed2212a1_z.jpg","width":640,"height":427},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/","name":"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-02-12T00:00:26+00:00","dateModified":"2021-01-26T22:38:18+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8346da0b408c793929e21619971798d0"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/us-policy-in-asia-heads-from-bad-to-worse\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"US policy in Asia heads from bad to worse"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8346da0b408c793929e21619971798d0","name":"Sheila A. Smith","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/49c1e857fce1b168ffb358a662f913aa?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/49c1e857fce1b168ffb358a662f913aa?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Sheila A. Smith"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/sheila-a-smith\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45380"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/913"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45380"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62056,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45380\/revisions\/62056"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}