{"id":45914,"date":"2019-03-05T12:05:20","date_gmt":"2019-03-05T01:05:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=45914"},"modified":"2019-03-05T12:10:18","modified_gmt":"2019-03-05T01:10:18","slug":"crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/","title":{"rendered":"Crashing and burning in Hanoi"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The world had high hopes for the outcome of the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi on 27 and 28 February. The possibility of a breakthrough was overstated<\/a> and now we\u2019ve been burned by the irrational exuberance about a North Korea willing to denuclearise. It never planned to do that.<\/p>\n

The summit came to a crashing halt on the 28th when the two leaders turned their backs on each other, and on a rather nice lunch<\/a>. At the post-summit press conference, Trump said<\/a> that \u2018sometimes you have to walk\u2019, reasoning that the US couldn\u2019t agree to a deal that involved a complete lifting of US economic sanctions in return for North Korea\u2019s dismantling of its Yongbyon nuclear facility. That would have left much of North Korea\u2019s nuclear infrastructure intact\u2014including the undeclared facilities that have been discovered since the 2018 Trump\u2013Kim summit\u2014and would have meant that the US would, in effect, have been subsidising<\/a> the further development of Pyongyang\u2019s nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n

The North Korean riposte<\/a> came later that evening, with a claim by Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho that North Korea only called for a partial lifting of sanctions in return for the dismantling of Yongbyon under the gaze of US inspectors. A North Korean official also suggested<\/a> that Kim \u2018may have lost the will for further negotiation\u2019.<\/p>\n

All the signs out of Hanoi suggest that the future of diplomacy between Trump and Kim is uncertain at best. There might be lower level talks between the US and North Korea, but it\u2019s not likely that they would lead to a resolution that satisfies all parties. The North Koreans are also watching Trump\u2019s growing domestic woes, including the testimony<\/a> by his former lawyer, Michael Cohen\u2014which burst political bombshells all over Capitol Hill as the Hanoi summit was getting underway\u2014and the impending release<\/a> of the Mueller report.<\/p>\n

So where to from here?<\/p>\n

According to Trump, Kim has promised<\/a> not to conduct further missile or nuclear tests. That may hold for the time being, but if the North Koreans decide that there\u2019s an impasse or that domestic US politics have undermined the ability of the US to deliver on any deal, it would be quite easy for Kim to reverse course. It just takes a phone call, after all, to order a new missile test, or even a nuclear test.<\/p>\n

The rationale for further testing could be tied to a perceived need to perfect long-range missile systems, including getting more data on warhead designs to ensure a future nuclear-armed North Korean ICBM can accurately deliver a warhead on a target. And the North Koreans have talked about a \u2018Juche Bird<\/a>\u2019 nuclear test involving an atmospheric nuclear detonation.<\/p>\n

Despite Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo putting a positive spin in the post-summit press conference about future opportunities for diplomacy, there\u2019s broad consensus in the US intelligence community\u2014notably highlighted in a recent assessment<\/a> by Director of National Intelligence Daniel R. Coats\u2014that North Korea won\u2019t denuclearise, at least not in the way the US seems to interpret that term.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration must therefore address a fundamental dilemma. Washington\u2019s stated policy of seeking North Korean denuclearisation is based on a false assumption that Pyongyang will give up its nuclear weapons if it\u2019s offered the right inducements. But if Kim is determined to hang onto nuclear weapons no matter what, then the US policy must reinforce deterrence.<\/p>\n

That means that the US should avoid making further concessions, such as signing a peace treaty\u2014a move supported by South Korea<\/a>. A peace treaty raises the risk that Kim could put new demands on the table. For example, North Korea could challenge<\/a> the continued presence of US military forces and the United Nations Command on the Korean peninsula, or even the continued provision of extended nuclear deterrence security guarantees to South Korea and Japan.<\/p>\n

The North Korean definition<\/a> of denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula broadly focuses on the presence of US nuclear and nuclear-capable forces around the peninsula rather than Pyongyang eliminating its nukes. That interpretation has been reinforced by North Korea\u2019s recent raising of the prospect of links<\/a> between progress towards denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula and Japan\u2019s potential for an independent nuclear deterrent capability.<\/p>\n

The expectation that North Korea will agree to final fully verifiable denuclearisation (FFVD<\/a>) needs to be hosed down. Diplomacy can and should certainly play a continuing role in getting a meeting of minds to address the drivers of tension, and it can play a useful role in working on confidence-building measures to reduce the potential for misunderstandings or lower the risk of sliding back to the \u2018fire and fury\u2019 type tensions last seen in 2017. But the US shouldn\u2019t proceed with further diplomacy with the expectation of convincing Kim to give up his nukes.<\/p>\n

Above all, the emphasis in any future talks should be on ensuring that the North Koreans are not tempted to go back to more missile and nuclear testing. Such a development would certainly precipitate a slide back to pre-war tensions and the prospect of a major military crisis on the Korean peninsula.<\/p>\n

To prevent such an outcome, the US must seek to boost deterrence against Pyongyang and increase dialogue with Seoul and Tokyo, to reassure them of the stability of alliance agreements.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s now a real challenge given Trump\u2019s wrecking-ball approach to US alliances. Even as the Hanoi summit ended, he couldn\u2019t resist challenging the value<\/a> of US \u2013 South Korea military exercises\u2014and then cancelled<\/a> the major Foal Eagle and Key Resolve exercises. That\u2019s not the best signal to send to a key ally as concerns grow that further tensions between Pyongyang and Washington may be on the horizon. The Japanese will take note\u2014and so should Canberra.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The world had high hopes for the outcome of the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi on 27 and 28 February. The possibility of a breakthrough …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":45916,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2225,1428,702,86],"class_list":["post-45914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-denuclearisation","tag-donald-trump","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-north-korea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCrashing and burning in Hanoi | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crashing and burning in Hanoi | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The world had high hopes for the outcome of the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi on 27 and 28 February. The possibility of a breakthrough ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-05T01:05:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-03-05T01:10:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0503trumpkimtshirt.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"772\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"448\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Malcolm Davis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Malcolm Davis\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0503trumpkimtshirt.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0503trumpkimtshirt.jpg\",\"width\":772,\"height\":448},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/\",\"name\":\"Crashing and burning in Hanoi | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-05T01:05:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-03-05T01:10:18+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Crashing and burning in Hanoi\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7\",\"name\":\"Malcolm Davis\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Malcolm Davis\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/malcolm-davis\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Crashing and burning in Hanoi | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Crashing and burning in Hanoi | The Strategist","og_description":"The world had high hopes for the outcome of the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi on 27 and 28 February. The possibility of a breakthrough ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-03-05T01:05:20+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-03-05T01:10:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":772,"height":448,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0503trumpkimtshirt.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Malcolm Davis","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Malcolm Davis","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0503trumpkimtshirt.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0503trumpkimtshirt.jpg","width":772,"height":448},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/","name":"Crashing and burning in Hanoi | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-03-05T01:05:20+00:00","dateModified":"2019-03-05T01:10:18+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/crashing-and-burning-in-hanoi\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Crashing and burning in Hanoi"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/004d5acd1b50c90b8d3af1ddfe0146e7","name":"Malcolm Davis","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e30138c7970d42c9a573bddc38c3101b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Malcolm Davis"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/malcolm-davis\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45914"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/147"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45914"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45914\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45926,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45914\/revisions\/45926"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}