{"id":45986,"date":"2019-03-07T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2019-03-07T00:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=45986"},"modified":"2019-03-07T10:46:34","modified_gmt":"2019-03-06T23:46:34","slug":"zimbabwe-its-the-subculture-stupid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/zimbabwe-its-the-subculture-stupid\/","title":{"rendered":"Zimbabwe: \u2018It\u2019s the subculture, stupid\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

It\u2019s like watching a drunken sailor go down in increments. A stumble, a forehead to the counter, a wild grasping, followed by a crash of bottles. That\u2019s the trajectory of Zimbabwe\u2019s post-Mugabe \u2018new dispensation\u2019\u2014all in not-so-glorious, super-slow-mo Technicolor.<\/p>\n

There were the post-election shootings<\/a> last August, a currency crisis<\/a>, fuel price protests<\/a> in January\u2014and another round of violence<\/a> by the security forces that reportedly left at least 17 dead and more than 80 with gunshot wounds.<\/p>\n

So the instalments of this very public debacle are clear to all. But it\u2019s in the quest to find explanations that things become almost infinitely murky. Theories and rumours abound.<\/p>\n

For some, there\u2019s a breach<\/a> between the president and his deputy, Constantino Chiwenga, an alleged hawk (among doves, no less?) who has the backing of the military and is attempting to sabotage the reformist agenda of his boss, Emmerson Mnangagwa. Others contend that the pair are playing a sophisticated \u2018good cop, bad cop\u2019 routine<\/a>, with Chiwenga doing the dirty work at home while Mnangagwa seeks re-engagement abroad.<\/p>\n

The problem is, efforts to disentangle the interpersonal relationships and factions within the ruling party, Zanu-PF, are fraught with peril. The confidence of assertions about intraparty ferment tends to be inversely proportional to the grounds for such conviction. When someone claims to know what\u2019s going on, it\u2019s usually a sure sign that they don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

One of the reasons is that neat factions simply don\u2019t exist in the party. Self-interest and distrust are perennial; alliances are ephemeral. Often, not even those on the inside know precisely what\u2019s going on, let alone those on the outside. That doesn\u2019t mean factional moods and movements can\u2019t become important\u2014they ebb and flow and flare\u2014but there usually isn\u2019t enough reliable data to make a judgement in real time.<\/p>\n

The realms of harder data yield some answers. \u2018It\u2019s the economy, stupid\u2019, as the Americans might say. Certainly, the government is in a jam. Many recent events are the outworkings of complex economic problems.<\/p>\n

The twofold increase<\/a> in the price of fuel is not \u2018inexplicable<\/a>\u2019, as some have described it. Nor is Zimbabwean fuel now the most expensive in the world, as the media have repeatedly<\/a> told us<\/a>. Fuel had been massively subsidised<\/a>, making it some of the cheapest in Africa. Demand surged, and the consumption of petrol rose 650%<\/a> between April and October 2018. On-selling and cross-border smuggling became rife\u2014all at the expense of the public purse, and it couldn\u2019t go on, even if (as usual) Zanu\u2019s crony capitalists were, behind the scenes, the life of the latest party. The price change was a correction, bringing Zimbabwe\u2019s fuel closer to parity with regional prices in US dollar terms.<\/p>\n

Yet that abrupt volte-face also dealt a blow to the already-screaming hip pocket of ordinary Zimbabweans. Most get paid in \u2018bond notes\u2019 or e-dollars, a local currency that the government\u2014until recently\u2014said was equal to the US dollar, but which was in fact trading at a ratio of 4.3\/1 and climbing at an annual rate of 183%<\/a> (a month later, it\u2019s heading towards 6 and inflation is over 250%<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The Mnangagwa administration has virtually no productive tax base and no one who will lend to it on the scale required, so policy on the fly is the order of the day\u2014layers of contradiction, distortion, graft and increasing chaos\u2014a \u2018ramshackle edifice<\/a>\u2019 that will grow larger and more precarious as the months roll by.<\/p>\n

Downward trends and further economic shocks may trigger more instability before the year is out, but they are, ultimately, symptoms, not causes. They are weather vanes that speak of the present and warn us of the imminent, yet they are not seminal and are poor indicators of the longer term.<\/p>\n

For those who would try to read the swirling tea leaves, broader and deeper factors are the better bet. The word \u2018system\u2019 is inadequate because the core of it is more profound, more organic and more enduring than that. Zimbabwe is what it is because of a political subculture, centred on the ruling party, that has hegemony and subjugation as its highest ideals. Violence, disdain, paranoia and plunder are among its natural progeny. It is fundamentally antithetical to genuine political competition, dissent and notions of stewardship.<\/p>\n

The attitudes and instincts that together comprise the culture are audible at every turn, if we are tuned to the right frequency. Asked during a trip to Ethiopia about the numerous allegations of rape during the recent crackdown, Mnangagwa retorted<\/a>: \u2018It\u2019s all stage-managed. We are challenging anybody, anybody, local or foreign, to produce the women, so that the world can see them, and say this is what happened.\u2019 Regarding the killings: \u2018We\u2019d want to see evidence. We see all this in social media. But we\u2019d want to see evidence where the 17 people were killed. Where were they buried?\u2019 And then the sterile references to external manipulation; the protests were part of \u2018a regime change agenda which is not new\u2019.<\/p>\n

Back at home, speaking at a rural rally<\/a>, he went on: \u2018Those who we fought during the liberation struggle, the whites, are still fighting so they can claim power again \u2026 Our enemies are not resting.\u2019 But, away from the international glare, he was unable to restrain the urge to brag. \u2018We don\u2019t want violence, so I said soldiers go and silence these people, they were silenced.\u2019 Protestors were of \u2018Legion\u2019\u2014a multitude of demons\u2014and the government would \u2018sort them out \u2026 We will crush our enemies, and they are being crushed.\u2019<\/p>\n

It\u2019s another of those moments in Zimbabwe when time seems to stand still. Semper eadem<\/em>, as Elizabeth I described herself. Ever the same. In some respects, at least. In the 1980s, when Zanu\u2019s violence reached its zenith, reports of atrocities were \u2018utterly false and fabrications of \u2026 fertile imagination\u2019. \u2018Show us the graves\u2019, they jeered. Critics were \u2018megaphonic agents of their external manipulative masters\u2019. They were \u2018in league with Satan\u2019 and other \u2018evil forces\u2019 who sought to overthrow the government, and they had to be \u2018crushed with all the force possible\u2019.<\/p>\n

History is littered with unexpected events and the shattered reputations of those who sought to prophesy. Yet for those who would dare to guess, the longer threads\u2014not the frayed edges of Zimbabwe\u2019s social fabric\u2014suggest that it\u2019s not going to make any real difference if Mnangagwa, or Chiwenga, or any of their fellow travellers, rule\u2014much as it\u2019s made little difference that Mugabe has gone. Lest we forget: as long as the generation of supremacist nationalists and its proselytes remain, so will the mindset.<\/p>\n

For those occasions when the cut, thrust and chaos of current events may seek to distract and confuse, both part-time analysts of Zimbabwe and those who hope to be more should leave a note to self in a prominent place: \u2018It\u2019s the subculture, stupid.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s like watching a drunken sailor go down in increments. A stumble, a forehead to the counter, a wild grasping, followed by a crash of bottles. That\u2019s the trajectory of Zimbabwe\u2019s post-Mugabe \u2018new dispensation\u2019\u2014all in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":829,"featured_media":45988,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[177,2230,554],"class_list":["post-45986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-africa","tag-emmerson-mnangagwa","tag-zimbabwe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nZimbabwe: \u2018It\u2019s the subculture, stupid\u2019 | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/zimbabwe-its-the-subculture-stupid\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Zimbabwe: \u2018It\u2019s the subculture, stupid\u2019 | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s like watching a drunken sailor go down in increments. 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