{"id":46098,"date":"2019-03-12T11:06:19","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T00:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=46098"},"modified":"2019-03-12T11:06:19","modified_gmt":"2019-03-12T00:06:19","slug":"why-the-nexus-between-pakistan-and-terrorists-persists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/why-the-nexus-between-pakistan-and-terrorists-persists\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the nexus between Pakistan and terrorists persists"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Once again, an attack on India by a Pakistan-based terrorist group has raised the spectre of a major confrontation on the Indian subcontinent\u2014and fuelled international pressure for Pakistan to take concrete action against the 22 UN-designated terrorist entities<\/a> it hosts. But this time, the pressure is compounded by fury over attacks by Pakistan-based terrorists on the country\u2019s other key neighbours, Iran and Afghanistan. Will Pakistan finally respond convincingly?<\/p>\n

Over the years, the footprints of many terrorist attacks in the West have been traced to Pakistan. The United States found al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden ensconced<\/a> in the high-security garrison town of Abbottabad, in the shadow of the Pakistan Military Academy. Other terrorist leaders captured since the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US\u2014including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, al-Qaeda\u2019s third in command, and Abu Zubaydah, the network\u2019s operations chief\u2014were also found living in Pakistan\u2019s heartland.<\/p>\n

Such revelations have often fuelled calls for Pakistan to tackle its transnational terrorism problem. Last year, US President Donald Trump tweeted<\/a> that, though Pakistan received more than US$33 billion in American aid since 2002, it has returned \u2018nothing but lies and deceit\u2019, including providing \u2018safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan\u2019. The US, which has long had contingency plans to seize Pakistan\u2019s nuclear weapons<\/a>, if necessary, to prevent terrorists from getting their hands on them, then cut security aid.<\/p>\n

Recent attacks have reinvigorated demands for Pakistan to take action\u2014amid threats of reprisal. On 14 February, a suicide bombing claimed by the group Jaish-e-Mohammed killed 41 Indian paramilitary soldiers in India-administered Kashmir. In the same week, another suicide bombing\u2014this one claimed by a group called Jaish ul-Adl\u2014killed 27 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members and injured 13 others in southeastern Iran, and a Taliban strike killed 32 Afghan troops at a remote base.<\/p>\n

Since then, India and Pakistan have engaged in tit-for-tat aerial incursions, and Iran has vowed<\/a> to retaliate. The US has stressed<\/a> the \u2018urgency\u2019 of Pakistan taking meaningful action against terrorist groups. If Pakistan is moved from the \u2018grey\u2019 to \u2018black\u2019 list of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF)\u2014which recently chastised the country for failing to cut off terrorist financing and demanded concrete action<\/a> by May\u2014Western sanctions will probably follow<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s position as a mecca of terrorism<\/a> is now raising concerns among even its main patrons\u2014China, which has long stood with it against India, and Saudi Arabia, its bulwark against Iran\u2014which have lent it no support in its present crisis with India. More than ever, Pakistan finds itself internationally isolated and risks becoming a global pariah.<\/p>\n

Beyond the geostrategic repercussions, this outcome poses a grave threat to Pakistan\u2019s economy, which is teetering on the brink of default. Despite having secured emergency loans<\/a> from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan desperately needs a large International Monetary Fund bailout. And while a US$12 billion IMF deal is in the works<\/a>, the situation will only deteriorate further if the FATF blacklists Pakistan.<\/p>\n

To avoid this, Pakistan\u2019s government is signalling its intent to crack down on terrorist groups. But the international community should not get its hopes up. With the military still dominant, the toothless civilian leadership is offering only tentative, reversible measures\u2014suggesting a likely return to business as usual once external pressure has eased.<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s all-powerful military establishment\u2014which includes the rogue Inter-Services Intelligence agency\u2014is loath to sever its cosy alliances with terrorist groups. It would prefer to continue nurturing armed jihadists as a force multiplier in its low-intensity asymmetric wars<\/a> against neighbouring countries. Pakistan\u2019s nuclear weapons enable this approach, because they shield its military and state-nurtured terrorist groups from retaliation.<\/p>\n

This constraint is reflected in India\u2019s response to the Pakistani military\u2019s long-term strategy<\/a> of inflicting on India \u2018death by a thousand cuts\u2019. Pakistan\u2019s protracted terrorism-centred asymmetric warfare has, cumulatively, proved costlier<\/a> for India than any past full-fledged war on the subcontinent, including the 1971 war that resulted in the creation of Bangladesh. But, as India\u2019s patience wears thin, a limited war that calls the Pakistani generals\u2019 nuclear bluff is no longer inconceivable.<\/p>\n

But nuclear weapons are not the only factor protecting Pakistan\u2019s generals. Despite Trump\u2019s complaints, the US has yet to strip<\/a> Pakistan of its \u2018major non-NATO ally\u2019 status or to add the country to its list of state sponsors of terrorism<\/a>. The reason is simple: Pakistan is now a gatekeeper of America\u2019s geopolitical interests.<\/p>\n

Not only does the US supply its Afghanistan-based troops largely via Pakistan, but it is depending on Pakistani help in finalising a peace deal with the Taliban. In other words, Pakistan\u2019s generals are now being rewarded for sponsoring terror in Afghanistan through their brutal proxies\u2014the Taliban and the Haqqani network<\/a><\/span>\u2014which, according to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, have killed as many as 45,000 Afghan security personnel<\/a> since 2014. The message is clear: sponsoring cross-border terrorism pays.<\/p>\n

The battle against international terrorism cannot be won unless the nexus between terrorist groups and Pakistan\u2019s military is severed. A good place to start would be to make the IMF bailout contingent on concrete counterterrorism action. In the longer term, however, civilian\u2013military relations must be rebalanced: the Pakistani generals\u2019 vice-like grip on power must be broken, and the military, intelligence and nuclear establishment must be subordinated to the civilian government.<\/p>\n

The international community has enough leverage to force change in debt-ridden and dysfunctional Pakistan. But, to use it, Trump would need to rethink his Faustian bargain with the Taliban. And, unfortunately, that seems unlikely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Once again, an attack on India by a Pakistan-based terrorist group has raised the spectre of a major confrontation on the Indian subcontinent\u2014and fuelled international pressure for Pakistan to take concrete action against the 22 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":46102,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[69,2423,251,1088,2070],"class_list":["post-46098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-india","tag-jaish-e-mohammed","tag-pakistan","tag-taliban","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the nexus between Pakistan and terrorists persists | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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