The conclusion I came to is that the most compelling reason for us to operate in that theatre isn\u2019t the military impact we could have, which with only a boat or two at sea would necessarily be modest in the big picture, but because the US would welcome our efforts. In other words, the biggest payoff is the alliance benefit<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
is seriously defective. The future, as Aristotle pointed out nearly two and a half millennium ago, is indeterminate and whether or not there will be a war between China and the US will be determined by currently inconceivable and unknowable factors, but include the impacts of human volition and the vagaries of fortune (or non-linear complexity in contemporary parlance). The first of these submarines is optimistically 25 years away but the simple act of justification of their procurement on the basis of siding with the US in a war on China potentially affects the likelihood of that eventuality. Aristotle\u2019s conclusion that under circumstances of precariousness, where the ultimate survival of the political entity is a stake\u2014a reality were Australia to side against the China that emerges over the next decades, prudence in decision makers is to be highly valued.<\/p>\n
Mike Scrafton is a consultant and former senior defence executive and chief of staff to the Minister for Defence.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For a sovereign democratic nation, Andrew Davies\u2019 contribution \u2018The who, what, where, and why of the future submarine\u2019 posits some alarming notions. The first relates to an assumption that irrespective of a direct threat to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[223],"class_list":["post-4668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-submarines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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