{"id":46752,"date":"2019-04-08T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2019-04-07T20:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=46752"},"modified":"2019-05-21T13:46:26","modified_gmt":"2019-05-21T03:46:26","slug":"the-uncertain-geopolitics-and-geoeconomics-of-the-federal-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-uncertain-geopolitics-and-geoeconomics-of-the-federal-election\/","title":{"rendered":"The uncertain geopolitics and geoeconomics of the federal election"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"576\" height=\"384\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-46753\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/0504election.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/0504election.jpg 576w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/0504election-205x137.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/0504election-332x221.jpg 332w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Australia zipped through budget week and now zooms off to the May federal election.<\/p>\n<p>The country will get to vote on the budget before the parliament, which means its tax-and-spend promises are written in sand.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s chiselled in the budget documents\u2014enduring beyond the election\u2014is a set of geopolitical and geoeconomic judgements about the state of the world.<\/p>\n<p>The geo settings in the budget outlook document and the portfolio statements are always revealing. Look for the caveats and cautions offered, plus the way surprises and shifts are acknowledged or hinted. What are the trends and how blow the winds?<\/p>\n<p>The nods towards surprise from the Defence and Foreign Affairs and Trade departments last week are how things have shifted since their big policy statements\u2014the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defence.gov.au\/whitepaper\/docs\/2016-defence-white-paper.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2016 defence white paper<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpwhitepaper.gov.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2017 foreign policy white paper<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>DFAT gives the flavour with the \u2018strategic direction statement\u2019 in its <a href=\"https:\/\/dfat.gov.au\/about-us\/corporate\/portfolio-budget-statements\/Documents\/2019-20-foreign-affairs-and-trade-pbs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">budget document<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Since the White Paper\u2019s release, many of the international trends identified within it have intensified \u2013 rising nationalism and geo-political competition, anti-globalisation and trade protectionism, a shift in power in the Indo-Pacific without precedent in Australia\u2019s modern history, rapid technological advances that are changing the way economies and societies work, and mega trends such as climate change and urbanisation. These trends are testing Australia\u2019s policy settings and demanding new efforts in several areas.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Distil the department\u2019s prognosis, its geo crystal balling, from the second paragraph of the strategic musings:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The global environment is more uncertain than any time since the end of World War 2.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Indo-Pacific is in the midst of a major strategic realignment.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The world is moving to a new, more multipolar era.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia and the region face fundamental challenges to long-term prosperity and security.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Add to those points the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-new-era-of-great-power-competition%ef%bb%bf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">top-of-mind issue for the era<\/a> offered by Defence Minister Christopher Pyne in December: \u2018The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.minister.defence.gov.au\/minister\/cpyne\/speeches\/address-australian-financial-review-national-security-intelligence-summit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">first priority<\/a> is to manage great power competition in the Indo\u2011Pacific.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Such settings mean cash flows to national security. ASPI followed the budget money trails <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/national-security-wrap-budget-special\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>. As Marcus Hellyer reported, the defence budget <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/boring-is-the-new-black-defence-budget-2019-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">continues to deliver as expected<\/a>, hovering a little over 1.9% of GDP on the long march \u2018to the promised land of 2% of GDP\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Defence\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defence.gov.au\/Budget\/19-20\/2019-20_Defence_PBS_00_Complete.pdf\">budget statement<\/a> refers back to the 2016 white paper forecast of greater strategic uncertainty because of <em>\u2018<\/em>changes in the distribution of power in the Indo-Pacific and globally\u2019. The shift\/surprise that\u2019s then singled out is in the South Pacific:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Since the release of the 2016 Defence White Paper, some strategic trends have accelerated \u2013 arguably faster than was anticipated when the White Paper was drafted. Defence responded to some of these trends, along with other agencies, in devising new measures under the <a href=\"https:\/\/dfat.gov.au\/geo\/pacific\/engagement\/Pages\/stepping-up-australias-pacific-engagement.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pacific Step-Up<\/a> announced by Government in late 2018.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>You don\u2019t have to mention China by name to be talking about China. In the South Pacific, Australia sees its strategic interests <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-challenges-australia-in-the-south-pacific\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">directly challenged<\/a> by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-china-relations-effort-must-reflect-strategic-reality\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">China<\/a>. That\u2019s the pointy end of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-purposes-of-the-pacific-pivot\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pacific pivot<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The geoeconomic report card from Treasury comes from a relatively sunnier place than the geopolitical climate described by Defence and DFAT.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.budget.gov.au\/2019-20\/content\/bp1\/download\/bp1_bs2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">international economic outlook <\/a>pins its hopes to the notion that US President Donald Trump will cut a deal with China, declare victory, and end the trade war:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>There have been recent signs that an escalation of trade tensions between the US and China is less likely; however, trade policy uncertainty remains elevated between a number of economies and global trade growth has eased. This uncertain outlook for trade tensions has been weighing on confidence, new export orders and investment intentions. Escalation of tensions would be expected to negatively affect growth in a number of countries including in Australia\u2019s major trading partners. Conversely, a resolution of tensions could result in global growth that is stronger than forecast.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The uncertainty meme keeps recurring. Treasury lists a high degree of uncertainty around the global growth outlook, uncertainty surrounding measures of global confidence, risks around the Italian financial sector, Brexit, and the fact that financial markets now expect monetary policy to remain accommodative or neutral for longer than before.<\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s trade, as Treasury notes, is oriented more towards Asia than Europe. So along with the geostrategic winds roiling the Indo-Pacific, there\u2019s a lot of work to be done and money to be made: \u2018Growth in Australia\u2019s major trading partners has outpaced global growth over the past decade and this is expected to continue over the forecast horizon as growth in the Asian region remains relatively strong.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>When it lifts its eyes beyond that horizon, Treasury goes to the basics of people, production and productivity:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Over the longer term, unfavourable demographics will constrain potential growth rates in some of the world\u2019s major economies. Slower productivity growth could also limit productive capacity in many countries. Future global productivity growth will depend on the dispersion of technology, the mobility of capital and the degree of openness and competition maintained across economies.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The geo report cards are in. Thanks for that, world. We\u2019ll get back to you after May. Australia is off to enjoy, and endure, a festival of democracy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia zipped through budget week and now zooms off to the May federal election. The country will get to vote on the budget before the parliament, which means its tax-and-spend promises are written in sand. &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":46753,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,120,753,376],"class_list":["post-46752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-budget","tag-election","tag-politics","dinkus-indo-pacific-election-pulse-2019"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The uncertain geopolitics and geoeconomics of the federal election | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-uncertain-geopolitics-and-geoeconomics-of-the-federal-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The uncertain geopolitics and geoeconomics of the federal election | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia zipped through budget week and now zooms off to the May federal election. 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