{"id":46761,"date":"2019-04-08T11:25:11","date_gmt":"2019-04-08T01:25:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=46761"},"modified":"2019-04-08T13:10:13","modified_gmt":"2019-04-08T03:10:13","slug":"natos-stoltenberg-paradox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/natos-stoltenberg-paradox\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO\u2019s Stoltenberg paradox"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

As it turns 70, NATO is facing its most severe challenges since the Cold War ended nearly three decades ago. The alliance has been rocked by Russia\u2019s illegal annexation of Crimea and its invasion of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, US President Donald Trump\u2019s stinging criticism, and the United Kingdom\u2019s Brexit-fuelled metamorphosis into little England. Despite these setbacks, NATO has significantly strengthened its commitment to Central and Eastern Europe in recent years. Yet it needs to do more.<\/p>\n

True, the United States and its European NATO allies disagree on important issues such as defence spending, trade, climate change and the Iran nuclear deal\u2014as the alliance\u2019s current secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, acknowledged<\/a> during a recent visit to Warsaw. But, as Stoltenberg correctly pointed out, military cooperation within NATO is better than it has been in years. This \u2018Stoltenberg paradox\u2019 is arguably most evident in NATO\u2019s progressive strengthening of its Eastern flank, including Poland.<\/p>\n

Stoltenberg justifiably highlights NATO\u2019s recent reforms. For example, the alliance has built up its new \u2018very high readiness joint task force<\/a>\u2019. In addition, NATO has developed a series of large-scale military exercises along its eastern flank to show Russia that the alliance treats its obligations toward each member state seriously. This is especially important for Poland and the Baltic states, all of which have a border with Russia.<\/p>\n

The rotational deployment of multinational NATO battalions in the Eastern flank countries has also demonstrated the alliance\u2019s resolve. This enhanced forward presence<\/a> has included the transfer of American military personnel and equipment to the region.<\/p>\n

As a result, there are now 4,400 US troops stationed in Poland. This marks a great leap forward from the initial agreements signed by Poland\u2019s former foreign minister, Radek Sikorski<\/a> (regarding a missile defence base in the town of Redzikowo), and by me as defence minister (regarding a permanent US Air Force establishment in Lask).<\/p>\n

The allies took another step forward at the NATO summit in Brussels in July last year, when they approved the new NATO readiness initiative<\/a>, or \u2018four thirties.\u2019 The initiative requires the alliance to have an additional 30 mechanised ground battalions, 30 air squadrons and 30 combat vessels ready to deploy within 30 days. This is at the heart of NATO\u2019s current doctrine of \u2018deterrence by rapid reinforcement\u2019.<\/p>\n

And yet a key question remains unanswered: will allied deterrence prevent possible Russian aggression during those 30 days? NATO\u2019s existing forward-deployed forces would not be able to provide protection, especially if Russia seized the Suwalki Gap (on the Poland\u2013Lithuania border) or one of the Baltic states before reinforcements arrived. The alliance must do more to resolve this \u201830-day gap\u2019.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s interventions, meanwhile, have raised other, knottier political questions. His statement<\/a> that NATO was obsolete shook many in Europe and was a gift to Russia. And whereas Trump favours a business-oriented approach, the alliance is based on the binding principle of \u2018all for one, one for all\u2019. Without it, NATO would not exist. The UK\u2019s decision to leave the EU further deepened European concerns.<\/p>\n

But fears about the transatlantic alliance are not an excuse for Europe\u2019s policymakers to float wildly unrealistic proposals, such as a European army independent of NATO.<\/p>\n

French President Emmanuel Macron<\/a>\u2019s idea of \u2018strategic autonomy\u2019 seems equally nebulous. Macron recently proposed<\/a> a European security and defense treaty\u2014a kind of defensive Schengen agreement\u2014and the creation of a European security council that would include the UK after it leaves the EU. This concept would establish an alternative structure to NATO and go beyond the EU\u2019s common security and defence policy, which is just being rebuilt.<\/p>\n

Faced with new threats, Europe should use the mechanisms and tools it already has. These have been on the table for a decade, but only in the past three years have policymakers been willing to use them.<\/p>\n

For example, in 2017, EU leaders established \u2018permanent structured cooperation<\/a>\u2019 to increase defence collaboration among member states and invoked the EU\u2019s \u2018solidarity clause\u2019 at France\u2019s request in the wake of terrorist attacks in that country. Furthermore, the EU signed a declaration of cooperation<\/a> with NATO last year and has agreed to create a European defence fund<\/a>. All of these initiatives will strengthen Europe without undermining the alliance.<\/p>\n

The EU can continue to improve its military capabilities without having to create new structures that go beyond its existing legal framework. For starters, European leaders need to decide on the future of the EU battlegroups, which have been on duty for years but have never been deployed. They should also seriously consider expanding the EU\u2019s existing military planning and conduct capability<\/a> in order to have a fully fledged EU operational command in place after 2020. The EU has undertaken over 30 military, civilian and mixed missions, and the bloc plans to be even more active internationally under the recently adopted EU global strategy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

All those initiatives within the legal framework of the EU would strengthen Europe without undermining the role of NATO. And this should be our principle for long-term strategy and policy.<\/p>\n

NATO enters its eighth decade amid continued disagreements between the US and Europe. We must hope that the Stoltenberg paradox disappears, and that the alliance further strengthens its military efforts to deter possible Russian aggression while reducing political tension between American and European allies. Poland and the rest of NATO\u2019s eastern flank will be watching closely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As it turns 70, NATO is facing its most severe challenges since the Cold War ended nearly three decades ago. The alliance has been rocked by Russia\u2019s illegal annexation of Crimea and its invasion of …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":941,"featured_media":46763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[959,325,261,163,31],"class_list":["post-46761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-eu","tag-europe","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNATO\u2019s Stoltenberg paradox | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/natos-stoltenberg-paradox\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NATO\u2019s Stoltenberg paradox | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As it turns 70, NATO is facing its most severe challenges since the Cold War ended nearly three decades ago. 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