{"id":46996,"date":"2019-04-17T13:00:45","date_gmt":"2019-04-17T03:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=46996"},"modified":"2019-04-17T12:53:35","modified_gmt":"2019-04-17T02:53:35","slug":"chinas-crushing-of-dissent-could-lead-to-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-crushing-of-dissent-could-lead-to-disaster\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s crushing of dissent could lead to disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Lou Jiwei may not be a household name in the West, but the former Chinese finance minister is well known and highly respected among financiers and economic policymakers. Yet, earlier this month, China\u2019s government announced Lou\u2019s dismissal from his post as chairman of the country\u2019s national social security fund. The move reflects a change in the Chinese leadership\u2019s approach to governance that is likely to have profound implications for the country\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

The removal of Lou from his post represents a break from precedent: his three predecessors served 4.5 years, on average, and all retired after reaching age 69. Lou is 68 and served for only a little over two years. China\u2019s leaders didn\u2019t provide a reason for sacking him, but a likely explanation<\/a> stands out. Lou has recently emerged as an outspoken critic of China\u2019s ambitious industrial policy agenda, calling \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 a waste of public money.<\/p>\n

Made in China 2025 had already aroused suspicion among China\u2019s Western trading partners. They view the program as an effort by China to use unfair means\u2014namely, government support for strategic sectors\u2014to displace the West as the world\u2019s leader in advanced technologies. The scheme was one of the factors that precipitated US President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war with China.<\/p>\n

Since the trade war erupted, China\u2019s leaders have deliberately toned down the hype surrounding Made in China 2025, suggesting that they recognise the high cost of moving forward with the program. In this context, Lou\u2019s criticism is not particularly scandalous\u2014unless, of course, China\u2019s leaders are merely pretending to back off the policy until trade tensions ease.<\/p>\n

But the implications of Lou\u2019s dismissal extend beyond Made in China 2025. Lou is a hard-charging reformer with an illustrious record of accomplishments. His dismissal underscores the extent to which, under President Xi Jinping\u2019s leadership, China\u2019s government has become intolerant of even the slightest internal policy disagreements, even on the subject of economics, which used to be debated quite openly among the leadership. It is an approach that could well prove disastrous.<\/p>\n

Since Xi came to power in 2012, decision-making processes at the top level of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have changed beyond recognition. Previously, collective leadership allowed dissenting views to be aired, and decisions were reached largely by consensus\u2014a slow process that sometimes resulted in missed opportunities. But it was also an important risk-management mechanism. Openness to a variety of perspectives helped ensure that impractical or dangerous ideas were rejected and the CCP made no catastrophic policy mistakes under Xi\u2019s two predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.<\/p>\n

Xi, however, has replaced collective decision-making with centralised leadership. The space for legitimate differences of opinion has been crowded out by the expectation of political loyalty and conformity. In fact, the CCP has effectively criminalised voicing opinions that are at odds with the top leadership\u2019s stance. That offence\u2014called wangyi zhongyang<\/em>, or \u2018recklessly speaking about the party centre\u2019\u2014probably played a larger role than actual wrongdoing in Xi\u2019s crackdown on official corruption in recent years.<\/p>\n

The resulting lack of constructive opposition means that excessively risky or inadequately considered ideas can become national policies in Xi\u2019s China. And so they have: in the past five years, China has made several major policy mistakes, owing to inadequate internal debate.<\/p>\n

One such mistake was the hasty decision in the summer of 2015 to use public funds to support equity prices when markets plunged. That policy failed to stabilise prices, wasted trillions of renminbi and weakened the credibility of China\u2019s new leaders.<\/p>\n

Another major policy mistake was China\u2019s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea and subsequent installation of military facilities on them. This might have seemed like a smart strategic move to some in Xi\u2019s government. But, by giving the impression that China is intent on dominating East Asia through coercion, it was a major factor contributing to the rapid deterioration of China\u2019s relations with the United States.<\/p>\n

Similarly, beyond being economically dubious, Xi\u2019s massive Belt and Road Initiative\u2014featuring more than $1 trillion in planned infrastructure investment in Eurasia and beyond\u2014stoked Western suspicions about China\u2019s geopolitical agenda. This mistake has ended up hurting relations not just with the US, but also with key allies, which view China\u2019s involvement in developing countries\u2014and, thus, their own relations with China\u2014with deepening unease.<\/p>\n

If the CCP continues to adhere to centralised decision-making, more\u2014and more calamitous\u2014mistakes are likely. China\u2019s leaders could, for example, decide to attack Taiwan, risking a catastrophic war with the US. In such a situation, one can only hope that, somewhere in the government, there is still a bold figure like Lou willing to stand up to express dissent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lou Jiwei may not be a household name in the West, but the former Chinese finance minister is well known and highly respected among financiers and economic policymakers. 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