{"id":47303,"date":"2019-05-03T14:36:36","date_gmt":"2019-05-03T04:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=47303"},"modified":"2019-07-01T11:39:47","modified_gmt":"2019-07-01T01:39:47","slug":"forward-from-the-hardened-north-of-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/forward-from-the-hardened-north-of-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Forward \u2026 from the (hardened) north of Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australia faces a rapidly changing\u2014and worsening\u2014defence and security outlook that is increasingly at odds with the policy assumptions that underpinned the formulation of the 2016 defence white paper. That reality demands a rethink of our defence policy and a new defence white paper early in the term of the next government. The next white paper needs to deal more directly and robustly with a rising China that\u2019s intent on challenging US strategic primacy across the Indo-Pacific and exploiting opportunities arising from any US strategic miscalculations, such as reducing visible support for key allies.<\/p>\n

Thankfully, US policy<\/a> statements<\/a> suggest that Washington isn\u2019t simply acceding to Beijing\u2019s desire for a new regional hegemonic role. There\u2019s now an intensifying strategic competition between Washington and Beijing\u2014some call it a \u2018new cold war<\/a>\u2019\u2014that will last decades, and could easily flare into direct military confrontation. The potential for China to instigate a conflict, perhaps over Taiwan<\/a> or in the South China Sea<\/a>, is quite real.<\/p>\n

Far from being a distant backwater, as was the case in the Cold War, Australia, because of its geostrategic location and vital strategic relationship with Washington, has become a frontline state in this new era of major-power competition. Within this strategic reality, northern Australia is emerging as a region of key defence significance. The hosting of US forces in the north, including a US Marine Corps deployment<\/a> in Darwin for training, and the enhanced air cooperation<\/a> initiative have elevated the Northern Territory\u2019s defence importance. Key facilities such as Pine Gap<\/a> and Northwest Cape remain essential components of our alliance, and must be kept secure.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve already argued that our traditional approach of relying on the strategic moat of the sea\u2013air gap for defence is outdated and needs to be reviewed, and that we should switch to a strategy of \u2018forward defence in depth\u2019 (see here<\/a>, here<\/a> and here<\/a>). Rather than hide behind a sea\u2013air gap which, like the French Maginot Line defences of 1940, is rapidly being overtaken by advances in military technology, we must build an Australian Defence Force that can quickly respond to threats with minimal warning and exploit greater speed and longer reach.<\/p>\n

Australia should invest in long-range power-projection capabilities that can rapidly deploy from the north deep into the Indo-Pacific to blunt an adversary\u2019s campaign before it can threaten our northern air and maritime approaches. Most importantly, we must acquire new capabilities quickly and not emulate the future submarine program, which won\u2019t deliver the first operational Attack-class submarine until 2035.<\/p>\n

In adopting a new strategy of \u2018forward defence in depth\u2019, we should seek capabilities that will enable the ADF to project power responsively and at long range, but we must not ignore the rear area of northern Australia. An essential first step to secure the rear is to harden pieces of military infrastructure to make them tougher targets for threats ranging from special forces attacks to missile strikes.<\/p>\n

In particular, we need to ensure that we can defend against emerging ballistic and cruise missile threats to Australia\u2019s northern bases. The starting point for this is the Royal Australian Air Force\u2019s integrated air and missile defence project, AIR 6500<\/a>, which will link together sensors, platforms and shooters to create a \u2018system of systems\u2019 for detection, decision and response to air and missile threats. Phase 1 of the project will provide the battle management system<\/a> and phase 2 will shape the medium-range air defence component<\/a> (though details on this are vague to say the least). AIR 6500 is due for delivery in the second half of the next decade. LAND 19 phase 7B<\/a>, meanwhile, will provide a short-range air defence solution for deployed forces.<\/p>\n

In developing our integrated air and missile defence capability, greater consideration needs to be given to how long-range sea- and land-based ballistic missile defence might also play a role. It\u2019s certainly not a panacea for the defence of the north of Australia.<\/p>\n

Andrew Davies and Rod Lyon are sceptical<\/a> of the effectiveness of either land- or sea-based ballistic missile defence options for Australia. Their scepticism is certainly justified in terms of what would be called \u2018national missile defence\u2019. Defence of critical facilities such as RAAF Tindal and Pine Gap would be a more achievable goal. They note the potential of the sea-based combination of the Aegis Baseline 9 and Standard Missile 3 against shorter-range ballistic missiles, concluding that such a capability could be incorporated into the navy\u2019s Hobart-class destroyers. They also note that a ballistic missile defence system for Australia should be tailored to defend vital facilities rather than the whole continent.<\/p>\n

The missile defence equation is only going to get more difficult for the defender as hypersonic weapons emerge in coming years. Any investigation of, and investment in, long-range defences needs to recognise the risk that disruptive offensive innovations may lock out our ability to maintain an effective defence.<\/p>\n

Hardening against non-kinetic threats\u2014including defending sites against special forces attacks, electronic attacks, cyberwarfare and the indirect effects of counterspace capabilities\u2014also needs to be considered. The growing importance of space, cyber and the electromagnetic spectrum as warfighting domains should shape basing requirements in the north and may demand that specialised capabilities be concentrated near critical facilities.<\/p>\n

With these threats in mind, we also have to consider dispersed forces as a part of a comprehensive solution. RAAF Tindal, for example, is a high-value target because it is so central to the RAAF\u2019s defence of our northern air approaches. We have \u2018bare bases\u2019 at RAAF Curtin, RAAF Scherger and RAAF Learmonth, as well as RAAF Darwin, but given Chinese advances in long-range strike capabilities, particularly with hypersonic weapons, these too are vulnerable. They are likely to be prized targets, especially if they\u2019re hosting US forces in a crisis. We have too many critical units concentrated on too few air bases that can be too easily struck from long range.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time to undertake a northern basing analysis which looks at innovative ways to operate from non-traditional airfields and considers dispersal to non-traditional operating locations in a crisis. A lesson could be learned from Sweden\u2019s use of roads<\/a> to disperse vital airpower away from vulnerable bases. The US Marine Corps is using rough fields<\/a> to create forward arming and refuelling points for its F-35B as part of its island-hopping expeditionary advanced base concept. The Australian Army already supports its Tiger helicopters this way, so we need to examine whether civil northern infrastructure can be better adapted to support the ADF in wartime. That analysis could include consideration of greater civil\u2013military integration as part of a northern Australia \u2018total force\u2019 that expands the use of reserve units.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s well past time to end the comfortable coast of defence policy on autopilot. To paraphrase analyst Ross Babbage, it\u2019s a coast too long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia faces a rapidly changing\u2014and worsening\u2014defence and security outlook that is increasingly at odds with the policy assumptions that underpinned the formulation of the 2016 defence white paper. That reality demands a rethink of our …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":47305,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,17,1114,1005],"class_list":["post-47303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-australia","tag-defence","tag-northern-australia","dinkus-north-of-26-south"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForward \u2026 from the (hardened) north of Australia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/forward-from-the-hardened-north-of-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forward \u2026 from the (hardened) north of Australia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia faces a rapidly changing\u2014and worsening\u2014defence and security outlook that is increasingly at odds with the policy assumptions that underpinned the formulation of the 2016 defence white paper. 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