{"id":47416,"date":"2019-05-08T12:37:02","date_gmt":"2019-05-08T02:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=47416"},"modified":"2019-05-08T11:38:40","modified_gmt":"2019-05-08T01:38:40","slug":"could-unmanned-underwater-vehicles-undermine-nuclear-deterrence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/could-unmanned-underwater-vehicles-undermine-nuclear-deterrence\/","title":{"rendered":"Could unmanned underwater vehicles undermine nuclear deterrence?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Nuclear deterrence rests on the ability of strategic assets to survive an enemy\u2019s first strike and to retaliate, ensuring mutually assured destruction.<\/p>\n

Nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) are considered to be the most survivable of all nuclear platforms due to their stealth capabilities, mobility and discretion. Placing nuclear assets underwater puts them at a safer distance from a crippling first strike. But as technology improves and the ocean battlefield becomes more complex, these advances could undermine the survivability of strategic forces around the world and make them far more vulnerable.<\/p>\n

Emerging technologies like unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) add to the complexity of the battle space and disrupt the status quo. Swarms of autonomous underwater drones could be deployed to hunt ballistic-missile submarines, targeting a cornerstone of nuclear deterrence.<\/p>\n

In their 2017\u00a0article<\/a>\u00a0\u2018The new era of counterforce\u2019, Keir A. Lieber and Daryl Press argue that for most of the nuclear age, the survivability of retaliatory forces seemed straightforward. However, improvements in counterforce technology have eroded this cornerstone of nuclear deterrence. As new technology continues to raise the potential for major shifts in the military realm, the rapid advent of these drones may reduce the credibility and effectiveness of SSBNs.<\/p>\n

UUVs can function without the direction of a human operator and have wide\u00a0dual-use\u00a0(that is, civilian and military) applications<\/a>. Some are used for commercial purposes, hydrography and oceanographic research. Lockheed Martin\u2019s yellow Marlin drone submarine inspects<\/a>\u00a0offshore rigs and underwater pipelines, a task that\u2019s worth around a billion dollars a year in the Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n

But UUV technologies have been evolving from defensive to more offensive roles. UUVs increasingly play a\u00a0critical role in antisubmarine warfare<\/a>\u00a0(ASW) and perform missions such as placing and monitoring sensors on the sea floor to track enemy submarines. They can gather intelligence on opponents, detect and neutralise mines, hunt submarines and chart the ocean floor. They could, potentially, detonate warheads. And they could take part in a coordinated attack on an enemy submarine in conjunction with \u2018friendly\u2019 submarines and surface vessels.<\/p>\n

The United States, Russia and China are investing in this technology to bolster their ASW capability and it\u2019s evident that UUVs will be deployed in the near future in combat operations.<\/p>\n

The US Navy released a\u00a0UUV masterplan<\/a>\u00a0in 2004 that set out nine priority areas for future UUV capabilities. In 2015, Brigadier General Frank Kelly became the\u00a0first deputy assistant secretary of the US Navy for unmanned systems<\/a>. In 2016, the Department of Defense\u00a0reportedly spent<\/a>\u00a0US$232.9 million on procuring UUVs (US$86.7 million more than in 2015). In 2018, the US Office of Naval Research\u00a0awarded Raytheon<\/a>\u00a0a US$29.7 million contract for developing a naval prototype of a \u2018low-cost UAV swarming technology\u2019, or LOCUST, system that can overwhelm an adversary.<\/p>\n

Russia and China aren\u2019t far behind. Several\u00a0reports<\/a>\u00a0indicate that Russia has been working on a \u2018killer underwater drone\u2019 since 2015. The \u2018Cephalopod\u2019 is designed for the underwater battlefield. Undersea warfare expert H.I. Sutton\u00a0says<\/a>\u00a0that it can target shipping but its torpedoes are intended to destroy submarines. In a March 2018 speech to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin\u00a0highlighted<\/a>\u00a0Russian military development of an underwater drone aimed at transforming underwater warfare. A RAND Corporation\u00a0report<\/a>,<\/u> Emerging trends in China\u2019s development of unmanned systems<\/em>, said Beijing had been funding 15 different universities for research programs for UUVs. Reports\u00a0indicate<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0China is also developing low-cost unmanned UUVs for a variety of military applications, including \u2018suicide\u2019 attacks on enemy vessels.<\/p>\n

These trends indicate that the proliferation of UUVs will have an impact on the stability of the undersea warfighting domain. Emerging capabilities suggest that the sea-based leg of the triad of missile submarines, land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and crewed bombers will increasingly become vulnerable.<\/p>\n

However, some experts argue that underwater drone technology is still in a nascent stage of development and faces challenges in autonomous operations and communication. The density of seawater makes it difficult for UUVs to complete complex tasks that require real-time decision-making. Former Chief of US Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert noted<\/a>\u00a0that one of the biggest obstacles for underwater drones is that they run on batteries that last only a few hours and communication is difficult because data passes very slowly through water.<\/p>\n

It will take time for underwater drone technology to mature and pose a serious threat to well-hidden SSBNs, but when drones swarm in packs, it will become harder for submarines to escape detection. Advances in UUV technology will undermine the stability of deterrence and usher in a new underwater arms race that will increase the risks of escalation in a crisis.<\/p>\n

As countries expand their underwater drone inventories, managing and controlling them could become challenging. It\u2019s vital that operating nations develop a global code of conduct for their use.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nuclear deterrence rests on the ability of strategic assets to survive an enemy\u2019s first strike and to retaliate, ensuring mutually assured destruction. Nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) are considered to be the most survivable of all …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":862,"featured_media":47417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[402,116,223,1418],"class_list":["post-47416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-drones","tag-nuclear-deterrence","tag-submarines","tag-uuvs"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCould unmanned underwater vehicles undermine nuclear deterrence? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/could-unmanned-underwater-vehicles-undermine-nuclear-deterrence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Could unmanned underwater vehicles undermine nuclear deterrence? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nuclear deterrence rests on the ability of strategic assets to survive an enemy\u2019s first strike and to retaliate, ensuring mutually assured destruction. 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