{"id":47817,"date":"2019-05-24T15:16:21","date_gmt":"2019-05-24T05:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=47817"},"modified":"2019-05-24T15:32:29","modified_gmt":"2019-05-24T05:32:29","slug":"aspi-suggests-130","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/aspi-suggests-130\/","title":{"rendered":"ASPI suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The world<\/strong><\/p>\n

How good are elections?<\/a> There\u2019s been a lot of voting around the world so we\u2019re dedicating a large part of this week\u2019s \u2018Suggests\u2019 to those festivals of democracy.<\/p>\n

In Australia, Indonesia and India, the incumbents have all been returned to power in what should mean a general maintenance of the status quo in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

The biggest surprise was in Australia, where most pundits and the polls tipped a win for Labor and Bill Shorten. See the Guardian<\/em>\u2019s eight charts<\/a> that show some of the reasons why the Coalition was able to retain power. This piece<\/a> in The Conversation<\/em> argues that Labor\u2019s defeat is partly explained by some key historical trends.<\/p>\n

There are now questions about the value of the hold that opinion polling seems to have on Australian politics and politicians. The Coalition\u2019s Newspoll results were famously quoted by Malcolm Turnbull when he rolled Tony Abbott as prime minister, something that haunted him<\/a> until his own demise last year when Scott Morrison took over. Poor polls<\/a> were partly behind the ousting of Kevin Rudd for Julia Gillard in 2010 and, in turn, for Rudd 2.0 before the 2013 election.<\/p>\n

As Labor pollster John Utting asked<\/a> in the Financial Review<\/em>, \u2018Did polling create a parallel universe where all the activity of the past few years, especially the leadership coups and prime ministerial changes, were based on illusions, phantoms of public opinion that did not exist?\u2019<\/p>\n

The Sydney Morning Herald<\/em> and the Age<\/em> have said they\u2019re looking at <\/a>the value of polling and how the reporting of it serves voters, and have already dropped<\/a> polling company Ipsos.<\/p>\n

The New York Times<\/em> argued<\/a> that Morrison\u2019s win was down to a populist wave similar to that which propelled Donald Trump to the US presidency. Matthew Knott rebuffed <\/a>that argument, writing in the Sydney Morning Herald<\/em> that the Morrison victory represents an upholding of the status quo and wasn\u2019t Australia\u2019s \u2018Trump moment\u2019.<\/p>\n

Narendra Modi\u2019s victory in the Indian election, by all measures of logic, was more or less guaranteed; however, nobody could\u2019ve predicted the landslide in his party\u2019s favour, let alone the complete annihilation of the major opposition parties. It wasn\u2019t a Modi wave, it was a TsuNaMo (for the uninitiated, NaMo is the equivalent of ScoMo). The Strategist<\/em>\u2019s two pieces on the theme, one<\/a> looking at the structural reasons for the BJP\u2019s victory and the other<\/a> exploring the possible next steps for India\u2019s foreign policy, are well worth your time. Milan Vaishnav\u2019s article<\/a> in the Hindustan Times<\/em> tries to make sense of the Indian electorate\u2019s behaviour. Meanwhile, a piece<\/a> in The Print<\/em> sets out a six-point economic agenda for the new government.<\/p>\n

Not everyone\u2019s happy with the Indian election outcome, of course. Much like in Australia, a certain section of the liberals and moderates find themselves in despair. Pratap Bhanu Mehta\u2019s opinion piece<\/a> in the Indian Express<\/em> ruminates on how the BJP\u2019s sweeping victory stands to damage the liberal traditions of the Indian polity. And if you\u2019re interested in a deep dive into the tough foreign policy choices facing the new Modi government, Ashley Tellis\u2019s long read<\/a> published by the Carnegie Endowment is unmissable.<\/p>\n

Indonesia\u2019s so-called \u2018surprisingly quiet\u2019<\/a> election has ceased to be so\u2014Joko Widodo\u2019s re-election as president has led to widespread backlash from opposition leader Prabowo Subianto\u2019s supporters. This article<\/a> in the Sydney Morning Herald<\/em> explains why the results have sparked mob violence on the streets of Jakarta. Yohanes Sulaiman\u2019s article<\/a> in the South China Morning Post <\/em>last month explores the link between Prabowo\u2019s political problems and his supporters\u2019 radical Islamic orientation. Alexander Arifianto\u2019s article<\/a> in The Strategist<\/em> this week succinctly lays out the broad contours of the Islamic challenge that Jokowi faces in his new term. Al Jazeera<\/em> published a photo series<\/a> documenting the violent protests that took place in Jakarta this week.<\/p>\n

Voters in Europe are heading to the polls for the European Parliament election. There are predictions that Nigel Farage\u2019s Brexit Party will receive up to 30% of the vote in the UK. The results won\u2019t be announced until Sunday, but Farage may have already won<\/a> by helping to unseat another prime minister. Theresa May is expected to be out of a job within days<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Using the collapse of the far-right party in Austria\u2019s coalition government as an example, this piece<\/a> in Foreign Policy<\/em> argues that now may be the time when European voters begin to return to establishment politics.<\/p>\n

Tech geek<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US Air Force is testing new decoy technology. BriteCloud<\/a>, developed by Leonardo, is an advanced expendable decoy system which captures signals from an incoming missile, analyses them against an on-board threat library, and emits a spoofing signal to cloak the targeted aircraft. It can be ejected from existing flare and chaff dispensers. See the video here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

South Australian company DEWC Systems is developing a constellation of electronic warfare satellites<\/a> which will be launched from the proposed Whalers Way<\/a> launch complex on the Eyre Peninsula. The constellation will comprise 20 cubesats that can detect electronic emissions on the earth\u2019s surface from low-earth orbit.<\/p>\n

How might asteroid mining be done? Greg Rowlands<\/a> provides an overview of various methods and the practical risks.<\/p>\n

CSIS\u2019s ChinaPower project has put out a great interactive infographic<\/a> on how China is modernising its navy. The People\u2019s Liberation Army Navy is already larger than the US Navy, and it is rapidly eroding the US Navy\u2019s qualitative edge. By the mid-2030s, China might have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines.<\/p>\n

Japan looks like it may set up its own (smaller) version of the proposed US space force\u2014the Space Domain Mission Unit<\/a>\u2014by 2022, which will have a focus on space situational awareness.<\/p>\n

Staying in space, NASA has released the full plan<\/a> for project Artemis\u2014the return to the moon by 2024. But getting money from Congress<\/a> may be challenging.<\/p>\n

With tensions between the US and Iran still high, and continuing on from last week\u2019s tech geek, there\u2019s a great article<\/a> by Max Boot on the risks of a US\u2013Iran war in the Washington Post<\/em>.<\/p>\n

This week in history<\/strong><\/p>\n

The \u2018Pact of Steel<\/a>\u2019 between Germany and Italy was signed this week in 1939. The deal agreed that in the event of war, the two countries would support each other economically and militarily, and that neither country would agree to peace without the other\u2019s consent. Japan was set to join the pact but pulled out only to join the Axis powers the next year<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Multimedia<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ABC\u2019s The Party Room<\/em> sifts through<\/a> Australia\u2019s election result and looks at what next for Labor and who is likely to make up the new Morrison cabinet when it\u2019s sworn in. [34:18]<\/p>\n

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran\u2019s podcast<\/a> in The Diplomat<\/em> dissecting the Huawei crisis and geopolitical rivalry between the US and China is worth a listen. [26:21]<\/p>\n

Touching on the same theme of great-power competition, don\u2019t miss Lowy\u2019s newly launched podcast\u2019s first episode<\/a> by David Shambaugh. [31:08]<\/p>\n

Planet Money <\/em>examines<\/a> why Deutsche Bank kept lending money to Donald Trump after his businesses defaulted on loans and when other major banks wouldn\u2019t. [26:41]<\/p>\n

A documentary<\/a> on Al Jazeera<\/em> features interviews with Russia\u2019s foreign policy thinkers and delves into the drivers behind Moscow\u2019s decision-making. [47:59]<\/p>\n

Events<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brisbane, 28 May, 6\u20137.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, Queensland, \u2018India\u2019s national security election, 2019: The rise of the watchmen\u2019. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Melbourne, 28 May, 6\u20137.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, Victoria, \u2018Strangers next door? Australia and Indonesia after elections\u2019. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canberra, 6 June, 9 am \u2013 5 pm, Australian National University, \u2018Workshop: How does the \u201cPacific\u201d fit into the \u201cIndo-Pacific\u201d? The changing geopolitics of the Pacific Islands\u2019. Register here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The world How good are elections? There\u2019s been a lot of voting around the world so we\u2019re dedicating a large part of this week\u2019s \u2018Suggests\u2019 to those festivals of democracy. 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