{"id":47991,"date":"2019-06-03T12:52:25","date_gmt":"2019-06-03T02:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=47991"},"modified":"2019-06-03T16:09:19","modified_gmt":"2019-06-03T06:09:19","slug":"the-slow-burn-continues-in-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-slow-burn-continues-in-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"The slow burn continues in South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Elizabeth II may have had her annus horribilis<\/em> in the early 1990s, but she would\u2014in the minds of many South Africans, at least\u2014be thought to have escaped lightly. The \u2018rainbow nation\u2019 went to the polls in early May after its decennium horribilis<\/em>, a lost decade in which GDP growth stagnated, unemployment skyrocketed and corruption ran amok. Among other things.<\/p>\n

For the romantics, the worm began to turn in late 2017 when the ruling African National Congress (ANC) belatedly axed Jacob Zuma, a president who had achieved little besides synonymity with systemic sleaze over the course of two terms.<\/p>\n

His successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has since proclaimed a \u2018new era of renewal<\/a>\u2019, but the election shows that it\u2019s been a hard sell. Reading electoral macro figures may be a flaky exercise at the best of times, yet there\u2019s one conclusion that appears safe in this instance: there are pessimists aplenty to match those who cling to the notion that the glass is half full.<\/p>\n

The ANC took 57% of the vote, a drop of 5% since the 2014 vote, and its lowest number since apartheid ended in 1994. There were also records to be found in those who didn\u2019t bother voting. Of the 75% registered, only 65% turned up to vote, meaning that the ANC\u2019s \u2018mandate\u2019 is drawn from 28%<\/a> of the electorate. Figures among the youth are more stark again. A mere 50%<\/a> of those under the age of 29 registered, down from 64% in 2014. And a meagre 16% of 18- and 19-year-olds registered.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s difficult to gainsay the sense of cynicism that pervades the majority. There\u2019s no sign of the country escaping the vortex of high unemployment and low economic growth anytime soon. According to one recent study<\/a>, South Africa\u2019s performance across a range of economic, social and governance measures deteriorated more over the past 12 years than any other nation not at war. Describing the outlook as \u2018dismal<\/a>\u2019, former senior South African National Treasury official Michael Sachs has said that the \u2018realisation is slowly dawning that this is permanent\u2014an endemic and chronic condition. There is no magic bullet to take us out of this situation.\u2019<\/p>\n

At the political level\u2014from where the real problem emanates\u2014the ANC is riddled with factionalism, and Ramaphosa\u2019s support base within the party is thin and unstable<\/a>. Zuma\u2019s allies are clearly circling<\/a>, hoping to wrest back control. There\u2019s also the uncomfortable truth that representations of Ramaphosa as a political messiah are less the reality than a (largely white) fantasy. One of South Africa\u2019s richest men, he symbolises not the poor, but an oligarchic elite<\/a> that trades in political access and patronage\u2014and that has shown little to no genuine interest in the great unwashed. Even if he wanted to take a wide broom to his own soiled house, he couldn\u2019t do it, because that would remove the ANC\u2019s remaining purpose. Conspicuous consumption is, effectively, all that\u2019s left\u2014the grimy residue of a party that once strutted the world stage as the answer to moral decay.<\/p>\n

The political room for broader economic reform is equally constrained. Looking over the fence at the opulent black political class and the still-wealthy whites, the mood among the underclass is more instant redistributive gratification than it is painful, long-term growth.<\/p>\n

And so it follows that the solutions offered by the ANC are becoming increasingly perverse. In a situation where reform would be political suicide\u2014with knives being drawn by those inside and outside\u2014the temptation to reach for populist answers (aka national economic suicide) is overwhelming. Here, there are no \u2018good\u2019 or \u2018bad\u2019 factions of the ANC. Insanity becomes a matter of degree. Ramaphosa\u2019s party enemies, throwing all caution to the wind, charge headlong down the path of radical populism. The party\u2019s secretary general, Ace Magashule, deeply mired in the corruption of the Zuma era and facing investigation, has fulminated<\/a> against those who eat at the \u2018well laden table of white monopoly capital\u2019 and declared that \u2018for as long as the poor are poor, the rich cannot sleep at night \u2026 [W]e are surely coming for what is ours.\u2019 As he\u2019s a man who appears to lack a scintilla of imagination, it has to be assumed that the layers of irony were unintended.<\/p>\n

His prescription for revival was equally unimaginative, a simple parroting of the pseudo-far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, who took an unprecedented 10.8% in the elections: expropriation of white farmland, nationalisation of the reserve bank, a raising of the minimum wage, free national health insurance and free universal education, just for starters.<\/p>\n

Most other policy positions seem sane by comparison, and so it is that Ramaphosa\u2019s schizophrenia comes as a relief to some. But drifting in and out of the twilight zone isn\u2019t going to rebuild the nation either. He has announced<\/a> that South Africa is on a concerted drive to restore business confidence, attract new investment, enhance the country\u2019s global competitiveness, and deal with the rot at bloated state-owned enterprises.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, much is done to ensure the opposite. Another government bailout of the state-owned power utility\u2014already in debt to the tune of around $50 billion\u2014is in the pipeline<\/a>, despite the fact that the government is itself massively overextended. For the debt-ridden public, a domestic debt-forgiveness bill<\/a> has been passed, which will force the banks to write off hundreds of millions in loans. That\u2019s hardly a move that will encourage prospective investors to bring their money to South Africa\u2014and it will inevitably result in the tightening of credit terms for the poor.<\/p>\n

In the mining sector, where policy uncertainty, strikes and rising costs have deterred investment, the government is doubling down<\/a> on commandist rhetoric, telling two major companies with unprofitable businesses that they must reverse decisions to cut jobs, thereby balancing \u2018shareholder expectations and societal expectations\u2019. Of course, the takeaway for investors is, again, that funds sent to South Africa aren\u2019t safe from political tampering. Better to go elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Sometimes the attempt to have it both ways can be seen in a single sentence. The miners were told to reverse job cuts in order to<\/em> boost investor confidence and grow the economy. Elsewhere, Ramaphosa told a conference of investors<\/a> that his administration would push ahead with land expropriations \u2018but we must make sure that it doesn\u2019t have a negative effect on the economy\u2019. That\u2019s an exquisite non sequitur if ever there was one. In other words, investors can be assured that the dismantling of private property rights will be done with the greatest of delicacy.<\/p>\n

Even with the most disciplined government and populace in the world, South Africa would be facing a gargantuan task to turn around its waning fortunes. But with its politics firmly centred on the quick fix and the blameworthy Other, the gap between the key indicators and where they need to be will widen further. At best, the slow burn will continue. Considering the alternatives, that\u2019s where the optimists might wish to pin their hopes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Elizabeth II may have had her annus horribilis in the early 1990s, but she would\u2014in the minds of many South Africans, at least\u2014be thought to have escaped lightly. The \u2018rainbow nation\u2019 went to the polls …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":829,"featured_media":47992,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[177,2295,376,2146],"class_list":["post-47991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-africa","tag-cyril-ramaphosa","tag-politics","tag-south-africa"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe slow burn continues in South Africa | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-slow-burn-continues-in-south-africa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The slow burn continues in South Africa | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Elizabeth II may have had her annus horribilis in the early 1990s, but she would\u2014in the minds of many South Africans, at least\u2014be thought to have escaped lightly. 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