{"id":48077,"date":"2019-06-05T15:15:55","date_gmt":"2019-06-05T05:15:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=48077"},"modified":"2019-06-06T12:09:19","modified_gmt":"2019-06-06T02:09:19","slug":"south-pacific-security-at-shangri-la","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/south-pacific-security-at-shangri-la\/","title":{"rendered":"South Pacific security at Shangri-La"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The South Pacific calls global warming its top security threat. And China\u2019s arrival is warming discussion of island security.<\/p>\n

Both trends explain why, for the first time in its 18-year history, Singapore\u2019s Shangri-La Dialogue<\/a> had a session on the islands: \u2018Strategic interests and competition in the South Pacific\u2019.<\/p>\n

The secretary general of the Pacific Islands Forum, Dame Meg Taylor, said not since World War II and the Cold War had the islands been so strategically relevant.<\/p>\n

Drawing on the words and spirit of last year\u2019s Pacific Islands Forum communique<\/a>, Taylor said the region is \u2018complex and competitive\u2019, with a dynamic marked by both \u2018cooperation and competition\u2019.<\/p>\n

The commander of Fiji\u2019s military, Rear Admiral Viliame Naupoto, observed that three major powers are having an impact on the South Pacific: the US, China and climate change.<\/p>\n

\u2018Of the three\u2019, Naupoto said, \u2018climate change is winning and climate change exerts the most influence on countries in our part of the world. If there\u2019s any competition, it\u2019s with climate change.\u2019<\/p>\n

Taylor said the islands had decided to \u2018securitise the climate emergency\u2019 by expanding the concept of security. Like all the speakers on the South Pacific panel, she referred to the first point of the forum\u2019s Boe declaration on regional security<\/a>:<\/p>\n

We reaffirm that climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific and our commitment to progress the implementation of the Paris Agreement.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Philip Davidson, said in all his visits to the islands he was confronted by the region\u2019s description of climate change\u2014\u2018robustly and literally\u2019\u2014as an existential threat, from fresh water and liveable land to natural disasters.<\/p>\n

The head of international relations and strategy at the French defence ministry, Alice Guitton, said France, Australia, New Zealand and the US must coordinate responses to island security needs. She said the four powers should improve their cooperation for maritime surveillance, preparedness for humanitarian and natural disasters, and measuring infrastructure at risk.<\/p>\n

Sitting with Guitton, the secretary of Australia\u2019s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Frances Adamson, said that it was a mark of changing times that Australia and France were \u2018embracing each other\u2019 in the islands. That was a wry Adamson nod to the way Australia\u2019s 20th-century dread<\/a> of France in the Pacific has now turned into a desire<\/a> that France stay and contribute as a key strategic partner.<\/a><\/p>\n

Australia, the quintessential status quo power in the South Pacific, sees France as a bastion of the existing order. No longer is France the feared outsider prone to blowing up both bombs and its own interests in the region.<\/p>\n

New outsiders are causing Canberra to fret.<\/p>\n

Adamson said Australia has \u2018an abiding interest in the sovereignty and security of the South Pacific\u2019, but added that \u2018Australia does not see our region through a narrow lens of strategic competition…Our approach should be driven by the wellbeing of the blue Pacific and its peoples.\u2019<\/p>\n

In an elegant alliteration, the foreign affairs secretary said Australia wants a South Pacific that is \u2018secure, stable and sovereign\u2019.<\/p>\n

During questions, China joined climate change in the security discussion.<\/p>\n

Taylor\u2019s response was a brief recap of the friends-to-all policy she laid out in her February speech, \u2018The China alternative: changing regional order in the Pacific islands<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

The Pacific Islands Forum saw expanded roles for other countries in the region, she said, and China has \u2018a very strong and valued relationship with many members of the forum\u2019.<\/p>\n

Davidson repeated recent US criticism<\/a> that Beijing is putting pressure on the government of Manasseh Sogavare in Solomon Islands to drop diplomatic recognition<\/a> of Taiwan in favour of China.<\/p>\n

\u2018The concern is the coercive approach to force Solomon Islands to switch recognition\u2019, he said. \u2018That is certainly not the objective of our free and open Pacific vision, nor is it in alignment with that free and open vision.\u2019<\/p>\n

The admiral\u2019s description of China\u2019s actions draws on the critique he offered the US Senate in February<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Beijing is leveraging its economic instrument of power in ways that can undermine the autonomy of countries across the region. Beijing offers easy money in the short term, but these funds come with strings attached: unsustainable debt, decreased transparency, restrictions on market economies, and the potential loss of control of natural resources.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Davidson\u2019s language was what you\u2019d expect from a US admiral. When it comes to senior diplomats, usually you get a certain flexibility that presents as nuance. There was no softness, though, from Adamson.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s top diplomat was asked about the decision by Australia and the US to redevelop the Lombrum naval base<\/a> on Papua New Guinea\u2019s Manus Island.<\/p>\n

First, Adamson did proper diplomatic duty, stating that PNG had \u2018invited\u2019 Australia and the US to help and that \u2018this is definitely not going to be an Australian naval base or a US naval base.\u2019<\/p>\n

The thought that follows is that, crucially, it won\u2019t be a Chinese naval base.<\/p>\n

Canberra was galvanised last year by the prospect of a Chinese-developed\u00a0<\/a>port\u00a0on Manus, along with possible Chinese\u00a0development\u00a0of other PNG harbours at Wewak, Kikori and Vanimo.<\/p>\n

As ASPI commentary noted, the real strategic value<\/a> of Manus lies in its forward position to monitor and control air and sea activities in the archipelagic approaches to Australia and the wide sweep of the Pacific from Micronesia to Kiribati and Nauru to Solomon Islands.<\/p>\n

The Shangri-La session on strategic interests and competition in the South Pacific heard Adamson express Oz interests in language any admiral would endorse: \u2018The Australian government made it clear that any foreign base in the region would not be welcome. We would strongly condemn and oppose that. It would have obvious negative impact on Australia\u2019s strategic situation and the strategic situation of the region.\u2019<\/p>\n

Strongly condemn and oppose. No code there.<\/p>\n

Welcome to a complex and crowded South Pacific.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The South Pacific calls global warming its top security threat. And China\u2019s arrival is warming discussion of island security. 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