{"id":48440,"date":"2019-06-20T11:00:40","date_gmt":"2019-06-20T01:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=48440"},"modified":"2019-06-20T11:00:40","modified_gmt":"2019-06-20T01:00:40","slug":"dont-feed-the-donald","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/dont-feed-the-donald\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t feed the Donald"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

What do French President Emmanuel Macron<\/a> and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe<\/a> have in common? For one thing, they both believe that, by stroking US President Donald Trump\u2019s fragile ego, they can coax him into maintaining the traditional alliances that he has proved all too willing to abandon. But, while America\u2019s narcissist-in-chief is undoubtedly susceptible to flattery, there are limits to this approach.<\/p>\n

Macron is already learning this. The \u2018friendship tree\u2019 that he gave Trump last year\u2014which the leaders and their wives planted in the White House lawn\u2014is now dead<\/a>. It\u2019s an apt metaphor.<\/p>\n

But Abe\u2019s charm offensive is still in full swing. The first world leader to meet with Trump after his election victory in 2016, Abe returned to Washington in April. The next month, Trump was in Japan, where Abe pulled out all the stops.<\/p>\n

Trump presented to a sumo wrestling champion the \u2018United States President\u2019s Cup\u2019, a 137-centimetre trophy that was made up for the occasion. He also became the first foreign leader to be received by Emperor Naruhito. He was, in his own boastful words<\/a>, \u2018the guest of honor at the biggest event that they\u2019ve had in over 200 years\u2019.<\/p>\n

Abe has reportedly nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize\u2014at the request of the US\u2014for opening talks with North Korea. And he has offered to mediate in America\u2019s dispute with Iran. (Abe\u2019s recent visit to Tehran\u2014where he reportedly asked Iran\u2019s leaders, at Trump\u2019s request, to release detained Americans\u2014made clear that, even squeezed by sanctions, Iran has no interest in negotiating with a serial violator of signed agreements.)<\/p>\n

What Trump calls<\/a> an \u2018incredible partnership\u2019 is, in reality, a largely one-sided relationship. But, for Abe, appeasing Trump is not so much a choice as a necessity: he must prove to Japan\u2019s people and their neighbours, particularly the Chinese, that he knows how to keep Trump on his side.<\/p>\n

The problem is that, no matter how hard Abe tries\u2014no matter how many complimentary words are spoken or friendship displays are photographed\u2014the US and Japan remain divided on the same issues as always: North Korea, trade and the reliability of US security guarantees in Asia.<\/p>\n

On North Korea, Trump reacts assertively to tests of long-range missiles, which could reach the US mainland, but has declared<\/a> that he is \u2018personally\u2019 unbothered by tests of short-range missiles, which could reach Japan. In contrast not only to Abe, but also to his own national security adviser, John Bolton, and former acting defence secretary, Patrick Shanahan, Trump refused to acknowledge that the short-range tests violated United Nations Security Council resolutions banning all ballistic missiles. \u2018Perhaps [Kim Jong-un] wants to get attention, and perhaps not\u2019, Trump said flippantly. \u2018Who knows? It doesn\u2019t matter.\u2019<\/p>\n

America\u2019s withdrawal from the Middle East, after opening the way for Russia to gain a foothold in the region, has only intensified Japan\u2019s fears for its own security, and not just with regard to North Korea. China\u2014the world\u2019s second-largest economy and home to 20% of the world\u2019s population\u2014may be a vital trading partner for its neighbours, but its aggressive, destabilising and largely unchecked actions in the East and South China Seas raise serious risks for the region.<\/p>\n

Abe is well aware of Japan\u2019s vulnerability. For years, he has been pushing to amend Japan\u2019s pacifist constitution to expand the mandate of the country\u2019s self-defence forces. In the meantime, Japan plans to spend US$245 billion\u20141% of its GDP\u2014on defence over the next five years, more than France or the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

But, of course, that investment won\u2019t put Japan in any position to confront China, whose defence budget is more than four times larger. That leaves Japan with little choice but to keep trying to improve the odds that the US will uphold its commitments.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, Trump has made no concessions on trade either. On the contrary, he complains<\/a> that the US has an \u2018unbelievably large\u2019 trade deficit with Japan, and has threatened\u2014invoking national security concerns\u2014to raise tariffs on US imports of Japanese automobiles.<\/p>\n

Such a move would hurt Japan far more than the steel and aluminium tariffs Trump imposed last year; in fact, it would probably send Japan into recession. Such an outcome would be all the more likely in view of the Trump administration\u2019s pushback against the Bank of Japan\u2019s stimulatory monetary policies, which it insists are unfairly driving down the yen\u2019s value.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s plans to purchase 105 F-35 fighter jets will go some way towards reducing Japan\u2019s trade surplus with the US and may help to persuade Trump not to follow through with the auto tariffs. But the truth, as Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso recently observed, is that as long as the US doesn\u2019t produce the goods it consumes at competitive prices, tariffs on one country will merely shift its deficit to other trading partners.<\/p>\n

For Trump, however, tariffs aren\u2019t logical. Rather, they are a knee-jerk reaction to any disagreement or challenge. Nowhere is that more apparent than in his threats to slap tariffs on US imports from Mexico, unless the country\u2019s government curbs illegal immigration to the US\u2014a move so reckless that even Senate Republicans, who have been all too willing to fall in line behind Trump, publicly oppose it.<\/p>\n

Trump did make one small concession to Abe: a trade deal will be reached only after Japan\u2019s parliamentary elections next month. But while that may ease pressure on Abe in the immediate term, it\u2019s cold comfort coming from a US administration as fickle and self-serving as Trump\u2019s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What do French President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have in common? 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