{"id":48532,"date":"2019-06-24T11:07:24","date_gmt":"2019-06-24T01:07:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=48532"},"modified":"2019-06-24T11:07:24","modified_gmt":"2019-06-24T01:07:24","slug":"russias-strategic-priorities-viewed-from-within","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-strategic-priorities-viewed-from-within\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s strategic priorities, viewed from within"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

While the European Union gears up for new leadership in the northern autumn and US President Donald Trump gets his 2020 re-election campaign going, Russian President Vladimir Putin is sitting steady in the saddle with a mandate stretching to 2024. But what, exactly, does Putin intend to do with his next five years in the Kremlin?<\/p>\n

Like leaders of all major powers, Russia\u2019s elite must regularly try to divine the future in order to shape the country\u2019s strategic priorities in a way that anticipates likely challenges. The United States conducts such assessments every four years under the direction of the National Intelligence Council; the EU does so every five years<\/a>, and has just published a semi-independent study<\/a> of likely global trends between now and 2030.<\/p>\n

In Russia\u2019s case, geostrategic forecasting is one of the activities of the semi-official Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), which has published a global outlook for 2035. Generally speaking, its assessment of future trends is similar to that of the US and the EU. Where the report gets interesting is in its appraisal of the implications for Russia. The authors identify several strategic dilemmas the country will face.<\/p>\n

For example, according to the report, Russia\u2019s top priority is \u2018preserving and improving its position in the world hierarchy of powers and responsibility\u2019. But achieving that will require a \u2018structural reconstruction of the Russian economy\u2019. Without far-reaching economic reforms\u2014or what the authors describe as \u2018radical changes\u2019\u2014Russia\u2019s international standing will almost certainly decline. The same point is made with great force in Anders \u00c5slund<\/a>\u2019s acclaimed book Russia\u2019s crony capitalism<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Following the discussion of Russia\u2019s economic plight, which is no small matter, the report addresses a number of complicated geostrategic issues. The authors expect an \u2018inevitably long political conflict with the West in connection with Russia\u2019s role in the post-Soviet space, first of all in defining the future of Ukraine and neighboring territories\u2019. In the near term, they conclude that such tensions will make it necessary for Russia to turn to China and other parts of Asia.<\/p>\n

The implication is that the authors see no possible resolution to the conflicts that Russia has created in its attempts to undermine its immediate neighbours\u2019 sovereignty. The study simply takes for granted that the Kremlin will continue to pursue revanchist policies abroad, despite the obvious negative impact its aggressive behaviour has had on Russia\u2019s international standing<\/a> and domestic economy<\/a>. It is as though Russia\u2019s illegal incursions into Georgia and Ukraine are mere historical matters, admitting of no solution in the present.<\/p>\n

As for moving closer to China, this has been a hallmark of the Kremlin\u2019s foreign policy at least since Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 provoked Western sanctions. Already this year, Putin has paid a visit to Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, and Xi has met with Putin in Moscow and St Petersburg.<\/p>\n

The problem, as the IMEMO study shows, is that pursuing closer cooperation with China is not really a viable option for ensuring Russia\u2019s long-term development. \u2018In the long run\u2019, the authors point out, \u2018cooperation with China and other Asia\u2013Pacific countries cannot become a strategic alternative to cooperation with the West\u2019. Accordingly, the authors believe the Kremlin should be directing its efforts towards \u2018working out its own agenda for possible active cooperation with\u2019 Europe and the US.<\/p>\n

The upshot, then, is that Russia has not only failed to modernise as it should, but it has also enmeshed itself in regional conflicts that have precipitated a crisis with the powers upon which its own development depends. This has forced Russia to rely ever more on China, even though it knows that becoming a junior partner to its eastern neighbour is not a desirable way forward. One way or another, Russia must find a way to restore relations with the West. This cannot happen immediately, given that the conflict in Ukraine remains a live issue, but it must be on the long-term agenda.<\/p>\n

The obvious solution to the dilemma\u2014admit that the conflict with Ukraine was a huge strategic mistake and seek an honest settlement\u2014was probably beyond the mandate of a study like this.<\/p>\n

The question, of course, is whether Putin himself takes IMEMO studies seriously, or even reads them at all. I sincerely doubt it. Most likely, shorter-term security assessments are what command his attention. Nonetheless, it\u2019s notable that a respected semi-official institution with strong support among influential members of the Russian elite has produced such a report. Though its language is often cautious and obscure, it is a clear critique of Putin\u2019s entire approach to foreign policy.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the IMEMO is absolutely correct: Russia has created a situation in which its global standing might well deteriorate. Continued conflicts with its neighbours at the expense of its relationship with the West will inevitably prevent it from pursuing economic modernisation and development. And without a strong economic foundation, it will have no chance of securing a respectable \u2018position in the world hierarchy of powers and responsibility\u2019 that Putin seems to find so important.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the European Union gears up for new leadership in the northern autumn and US President Donald Trump gets his 2020 re-election campaign going, Russian President Vladimir Putin is sitting steady in the saddle with …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":527,"featured_media":48534,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,325,772,163],"class_list":["post-48532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-europe","tag-geopolitics","tag-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRussia\u2019s strategic priorities, viewed from within | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/russias-strategic-priorities-viewed-from-within\/\" 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