{"id":48540,"date":"2019-06-24T14:30:26","date_gmt":"2019-06-24T04:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=48540"},"modified":"2019-06-24T14:17:03","modified_gmt":"2019-06-24T04:17:03","slug":"doing-business-with-trump-the-perils-of-a-transactional-approach-to-alliances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/doing-business-with-trump-the-perils-of-a-transactional-approach-to-alliances\/","title":{"rendered":"Doing business with Trump: the perils of a transactional approach to alliances"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

President Donald Trump\u2019s position on the value of the US\u2019s alliances predated his inauguration. Recently, Uri Friedman<\/a> drew attention to Trump\u2019s consistency on this issue. Australia\u2019s newly re-elected Coalition government might find itself at a critical juncture in the history of the postwar alliance system and be forced to question some truisms of national security.<\/p>\n

That Trump might destabilise the US\u2019s system of alliances was recognised<\/a> early in his candidature. Previously, US policymakers were concerned about losing the global access provided through alliances because of external developments<\/a> and not because of the US\u2019s own policies.<\/p>\n

The RAND Corporation\u2019s Stacie Pettyjohn<\/a> has pointed out that Trump\u2019s approach to alliances is not simply increased burden-sharing. Historically, alliance nations hosting US forces have been treated \u2018as partners who provided bases because of shared interests and oftentimes values\u2019. By contributing direct and indirect support, including essential infrastructure and services such as hospital treatment, and forgoing rents, allies helped defray the costs of US basing.<\/p>\n

Trump favours treating \u2018US partners as client states that must pay for protection\u2019. In 1987, he complained<\/a> that, \u2018The world is laughing at America\u2019s politicians as we protect ships we don\u2019t own, carrying oil we don\u2019t need, destined for allies who won\u2019t help.\u2019 In 1990, he said, \u2018The Japanese have their great scientists making cars and VCRs and we have our great scientists making missiles so we can defend Japan.\u2019 He believes<\/a> allies exploit the shield provided by the US military to grow prosperous while avoiding responsibility for their own security.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s preferred formula is \u2018cost plus 50<\/a>\u2019, whereby allies pay the full cost of basing US forces, including salaries, plus a substantial premium. There\u2019s been a suggestion that the Trump administration would be prepared to give discounts to allies that decided to align their own foreign and strategic policies with those of the US.<\/p>\n

Acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan told Congress<\/a>, \u2018We won\u2019t do cost-plus-50\u2019, but added, \u2018We\u2019re not going to run a business and we\u2019re not going to run a charity.\u2019 The first test of the administration\u2019s future intentions will come in the renegotiations of basing costs with South Korea, which are due in the coming months. It was during discussions with the Koreans on an interim funding agreement that the push for allies to pay full cost plus a premium surfaced in a note from the president to his national security adviser<\/a>. Insiders indicate that Germany and Japan are also in the administration\u2019s sights.<\/p>\n

Aggressive pursuit of this policy would force US allies into difficult terrain. Although Trump\u2019s offering is more than just the provision of mercenary services, it is also that. In The Prince<\/em><\/a>, Machiavelli observed that, \u2018Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous. If a prince holds on to his state by means of mercenary armies, he will never be stable or secure.\u2019<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear whether the US would withdraw forces from an ally\u2019s territory if the ally refused these terms or what the impact would be on security guarantees. Even if a state hosts US forces on a cost-plus-50 basis, it will always face the risk that the US will either stand aside for or support an antagonist that has a similar agreement with the US and perhaps pays a bigger premium.<\/p>\n

As US forces aren\u2019t equally distributed around Europe, for example, would European NATO states be better off contributing together to the cost of all US forces in Europe, or would states without US bases seek to push the costs on to those that host them? And if Germany or Italy had to pay cost plus 50 for US forces on their soil, would they be willing to see them deployed against Russia to defend Moldova without compensation?<\/p>\n

A requirement to align national policies with those of the US in return for bargain-basement security would degrade allied sovereignty. Once the transaction was done, subsequent governments would find both their freedom to manoeuvre heavily restricted and their security compromised. States so compromised might be expected to join in US-led operations even if their own interests weren\u2019t engaged.<\/p>\n

It would be a protection racket. It would take to ridiculous lengths Trump\u2019s transactional approach to international relations. The US would be a suzerain with a system of tributary states paying for occupying forces. Most US allies that could afford to enter into a cost-plus-50 agreement would seriously question the value it would offer. The alliance system would wither.<\/p>\n

The preponderance of opinion<\/a> in the US is that the benefits of the global suite of alliances significantly outweigh the costs. They serve the interests of the national security of the US. That doesn\u2019t mean Trump won\u2019t pursue his inclination, but he would encounter strong resistance across the political spectrum.<\/p>\n

Australian strategists place great importance on the community of US allies in the Asia\u2013Pacific. If Japan and South Korea were to find accepting a cost-plus-50 arrangement unpalatable for reasons of security or domestic politics, and US forces based in those countries were to withdraw, the balance of power in the region would transform dramatically.<\/p>\n

If Australia were asked to pay the full cost of US troops based here, the amount would be small, but policymakers would have to recognise that the character of the alliance with the US would be irretrievably altered. The basic nature of the role of the US will be transformed and the viability of the alliance system damaged if Trump has his way. The last shreds of the US\u2019s postwar leadership would dissipate. The leader of the free world would have become a cross between a condottiero<\/em> and a mob boss.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump\u2019s position on the value of the US\u2019s alliances predated his inauguration. Recently, Uri Friedman drew attention to Trump\u2019s consistency on this issue. Australia\u2019s newly re-elected Coalition government might find itself at a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":48549,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1428,31,2397],"class_list":["post-48540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-donald-trump","tag-united-states","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDoing business with Trump: the perils of a transactional approach to alliances | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/doing-business-with-trump-the-perils-of-a-transactional-approach-to-alliances\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Doing business with Trump: the perils of a transactional approach to alliances | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Donald Trump\u2019s position on the value of the US\u2019s alliances predated his inauguration. 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