{"id":48699,"date":"2019-06-28T13:00:04","date_gmt":"2019-06-28T03:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=48699"},"modified":"2019-06-28T13:41:13","modified_gmt":"2019-06-28T03:41:13","slug":"china-and-the-geopolitics-of-the-pacific-islands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/china-and-the-geopolitics-of-the-pacific-islands\/","title":{"rendered":"China and the geopolitics of the Pacific islands"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australian debates about the geopolitics of the Pacific islands in many ways represent the broad contours of discussions about Australia\u2019s foreign and strategic policy, notably our relations with China. It\u2019s possible to identify two dominant perspectives in these debates.<\/p>\n

The first concerns the risk that, over the coming decades, a potentially hostile China establishes a strategic foothold in the Pacific islands from which it could threaten Australia. Preventing this has been identified<\/a> as one of Australia\u2019s primary strategic interests for the past 30 years. These concerns have recently been heightened by, for example, the assertive stance<\/a> taken by Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, or the comment by Professor Yu Lei from Liaocheng University, at a workshop<\/a> at the Australian National University on 3 June, that it would be helpful for Beijing to have military bases in the Pacific islands to break the \u2018encirclement\u2019 of China.<\/p>\n

Having been part of conversations about Pacific islands\u2019 geopolitics in Canberra, Washington and Wellington over the past six months, I\u2019m concerned that this viewpoint risks creating self-fulfilling prophecies about the perceived threat posed by China.<\/p>\n

The second perspective is characterised by scepticism about what China\u2019s presence in the Pacific islands means for Australia and Pacific island states and criticism of Australia\u2019s increasingly securitised approach to its relations with the region. Concerns about potential militarisation of the region have been heightened by recent Australian defence-related announcements, including the signing of a memorandum of understanding<\/a> with Papua New Guinea to redevelop the Lombrum naval base on Manus Island.<\/p>\n

This perspective emphasises the autonomy and agency of Pacific island states<\/a> when dealing with China and other external powers, as well as their desire to be \u2018friends to all\u2019<\/a>. My concern is whether Pacific island states will be able to maintain their autonomy, exercise their agency or avoid the wider geopolitical debates.<\/p>\n

At the 3 June ANU workshop, participants from Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific islands considered the implications of the changing geopolitics of the region. It was clear from the discussions that Pacific islanders are concerned<\/a> about being dragged into debates about geostrategic competition that they don\u2019t want to be part of. Pacific islanders are well aware of the consequences of geopolitical competition; the front lines of World War II in the Pacific were largely in their neighbourhood.<\/p>\n

It was also clear that Pacific island states don\u2019t always share Australia\u2019s geopolitical perspective. In particular, many don\u2019t necessarily see China as potentially threatening. In fact, Pacific island states have developed \u2018tactical, shrewd and calculating approaches<\/a>\u2019 to exercising their agency in relation to the \u2018often ignorant and patronizing attitudes\u2019 of partners such as China and Australia.<\/p>\n

And this is an important point for Australians to remember in discussions about the potential for a \u2018new Cold War<\/a>\u2019.\u00a0 While it\u2019s important not to be too relativistic and treat Australia and China as morally equivalent\u2014one is an (admittedly imperfect) liberal democracy and the other is an authoritarian state\u2014for many Pacific islanders, Australia is not seen as inherently \u2018good\u2019.<\/p>\n

We can\u2019t assume that our attempts to exercise leadership<\/a> will result in Pacific islands\u2019 \u2018followship\u2019. \u00a0Australian colonialism is within the living memory of many Nauruans and Papua New Guineans; Bougainvilleans have vivid memories of Australian-donated helicopters being turned into gunships, and Manusians and Nauruans live with the consequences of Australia\u2019s \u2018Pacific solution\u2019.<\/p>\n

Most significantly, as Collin Beck, Permanent Secretary of the Solomon Islands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and External Trade, said in his keynote speech<\/a>, climate change is a \u2018death sentence for the Pacific\u2019. Indeed, climate change was recognised as the \u2018single greatest threat<\/a>\u2019 to the region in the Pacific Islands Forum\u2019s 2018 Boe Declaration. Australia\u2019s failure to take serious domestic action to meet its Paris Agreement targets raises questions about our commitment to our Pacific \u2018family<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

The most encouraging thing to come out of the workshop was the recognition that there are opportunities for moving the Australian debate forward by addressing the gap between these differing perspectives.<\/p>\n

First, while scepticism about the potential consequences of China\u2019s increased presence in the Pacific islands is sometimes characterised as, at best, naive, or, at worst, appeasement, no participant denied the emerging strategic and geopolitical realities facing the region. The contentious debate is around their likely consequences.<\/p>\n

Second, Pacific island states want their interests to be respected, and can creatively use their political authority to pursue them when dealing with China, Australia and other partners. Australians need to be circumspect about our ability to exercise influence and not assume that the strategic interests of Pacific island states will necessarily mirror our own.<\/p>\n

So instead of Australian debates about the geopolitics of the Pacific islands being framed as a \u2018China choice<\/a>\u2019, they could instead represent a \u2018China chance\u2019: the opportunity to identify interesting ways for Pacific island states to exercise their agency to facilitate partners such as Australia, New Zealand and China working together to build confidence and defuse tensions in the region. Given the alternatives, this approach at least seems worthy of further debate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australian debates about the geopolitics of the Pacific islands in many ways represent the broad contours of discussions about Australia\u2019s foreign and strategic policy, notably our relations with China. 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