{"id":48749,"date":"2019-07-01T11:00:58","date_gmt":"2019-07-01T01:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=48749"},"modified":"2019-07-01T10:51:47","modified_gmt":"2019-07-01T00:51:47","slug":"australia-must-do-more-than-flag-wave-in-the-south-china-sea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-do-more-than-flag-wave-in-the-south-china-sea\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia must do more than flag-wave in the South China Sea"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

There\u2019s a credibility problem in the South China Sea. When ASEAN states consider China\u2019s commitment to dominating maritime Southeast Asia, its capability<\/a> and the risks it\u2019s willing to take, they undoubtedly come up with a pretty clear-eyed assessment. It\u2019s knowledge won through painful<\/a> experience<\/a>.<\/p>\n

ASEAN states also know that opposing Beijing too strongly will bring punishment<\/a>, while conformity can bring rewards. And they have a good deal of certainty that China\u2019s strategic intent won\u2019t be changing anytime soon<\/a>.<\/p>\n

They don\u2019t, however, share similar confidence in America\u2019s commitment to upholding a \u2018free and open Indo-Pacific\u2019. The failure of the pivot to Asia, the derailment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, President Donald Trump\u2019s transactional approach to international relationships, resource challenges<\/a> in Asia and growing strategic<\/a> distractions<\/a> all help to reduce America\u2019s credibility in the eyes of ASEAN states. And from their position on the frontline of China\u2019s rise, they know that American talk<\/a> is cheap<\/a>.<\/p>\n

ASEAN states may not like a lot of what China is doing, but it\u2019s easy to see why acknowledging the realities imposed by a rising power next door might seem more attractive than betting on the vague promises of a superpower thousands of kilometres away.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not surprising, then, that at least some<\/a> ASEAN countries have shifted more support to China, and that China is becoming even more emboldened<\/a>. And as time goes by without any real, practical checks on Beijing\u2019s behaviour, its momentum continues to build. The growing credibility gap has real consequences.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s most visible military responses to China\u2019s maritime aggression and territorial expansion have been in the form of freedom-of-navigation operations (FONOPs) around some of China\u2019s claims, as well as some high-profile port visits<\/a> and exercises with regional partners. But these initiatives don\u2019t provide the level of reassurance needed to encourage ASEAN states to really help balance China\u2019s power.<\/p>\n

Although US FONOPs attract a huge volume of media coverage and elicit creative diplomatic responses from Beijing, as James Goldrick has pointed out<\/a>, these operations aren\u2019t specifically about China. Rather, they\u2019re part of a 40-year-old US program designed to challenge all states\u2019 excessive maritime claims. The US carries out FONOPs against its own partners, including against ASEAN states\u2019 own South China Sea claims, and a program partly aimed at those states is unlikely to help build much confidence with them.<\/p>\n

Similarly, port visits and military exercises don\u2019t really do much to bolster ASEAN states in the face of growing Chinese power, and this goes for visits and exercises by Australian units too. Traditionally, these types of activities carry significant diplomatic value, because the highly visible presence of sovereign power can reassure or deter as the case requires. But what exactly are we reassuring Southeast Asian nations of? And how much power is necessary to do it effectively?<\/p>\n

According to Australia\u2019s chief of navy, Michael Noonan, the recent Indo-Pacific Endeavour deployment demonstrates to our regional partners the fleet\u2019s \u2018growing capability<\/a>\u2019. That may be true, but in maritime Southeast Asia, capability needs to be seen in relative terms, and I\u2019m not sure that the arrival of a couple of Australian ships provides much confidence to countries staring down the People\u2019s Liberation Army Navy, which in raw numbers is now the largest navy<\/a> on earth.<\/p>\n

Moreover, when Noonan speaks of the deployment sending a \u2018strong message\u2019 that Australia is a \u2018committed partner\u2019, the obvious question arises: committed to what? Commitment to exercises and partnerships is terrific, but we hold exercises<\/a> and have a partnership<\/a> with China too, so what reassurance are we actually giving? \u2018Committed to the region\u2019 is a common cliche, but it\u2019s so vague as to be meaningless.<\/p>\n

If the US and Australia want to build real credibility with Southeast Asian nations in an effort to collectively balance China\u2019s power in the South China Sea\u2014and it can\u2019t be done without collective commitment\u2014then we need to demonstrate more than just capability while repeating vague platitudes. We need to clearly demonstrate intent and a willingness to take risks to counter China\u2019s aggression. The environment has changed and we can\u2019t just do what we\u2019ve done before.<\/p>\n

Joint South China Sea maritime patrols with ASEAN partners would be one way of signalling this commitment. While ASEAN states have previously regarded<\/a> joint patrols with the US as overly inflammatory, the same isn\u2019t necessarily true for Australia. Our involvement would be less outwardly provocative than that of the US and more likely to gain support from ASEAN countries.<\/p>\n

Indonesia, for one, has repeatedly<\/a> raised<\/a> the possibility with Australia, and been given a quiet \u2018no thanks<\/a>\u2019. But joint patrols of the southern reaches of the South China Sea with Indonesia would be a good starting point in clearly signalling our rejection of China\u2019s aggressive actions, while also expanding military-to-military links in an operational environment.<\/p>\n

Admittedly, such patrols would have to confront an extremely complex and sensitive geopolitical and operational environment and would require some carefully crafted and workable rules of engagement. These difficulties aren\u2019t to be understated, but they\u2019re also not impossible to resolve.<\/p>\n

Such a move would risk worsening the \u2018deep freeze<\/a>\u2019 in Australia\u2013China relations. But focusing only on the short-term consequences ignores the bigger problem: with all hopes of China becoming a \u2018responsible stakeholder\u2019 now dead<\/a>, the capacity for China to constrain our maritime freedom of movement will only grow as its power grows. Without action, at some point we\u2019re likely to find ourselves strategically reliant on the benevolence of an expansionist dictatorship.<\/p>\n

To change the dynamics, we need to help foster a meaningful, US-led collective balance to China\u2019s maritime power within Southeast Asia. And the same old flag-waving won\u2019t cut it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a credibility problem in the South China Sea. When ASEAN states consider China\u2019s commitment to dominating maritime Southeast Asia, its capability and the risks it\u2019s willing to take, they undoubtedly come up with a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":919,"featured_media":48752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,52,1522,56,471],"class_list":["post-48749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-china","tag-fonops","tag-indo-pacific","tag-south-china-sea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia must do more than flag-wave in the South China Sea | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/australia-must-do-more-than-flag-wave-in-the-south-china-sea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia must do more than flag-wave in the South China Sea | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s a credibility problem in the South China Sea. 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