{"id":488,"date":"2012-08-02T11:55:59","date_gmt":"2012-08-02T01:55:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=488"},"modified":"2012-08-06T14:55:06","modified_gmt":"2012-08-06T04:55:06","slug":"thinking-about-defence-and-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/thinking-about-defence-and-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Thinking about defence and risk"},"content":{"rendered":"

Paul Monk initiated a valuable debate<\/a> on these pages about the role of risk in defence planning. As it happens, I\u2019ve been thinking along similar lines for sometime myself. So here\u2019s my take on the role of risk in defence planning.<\/p>\n

Just to be clear, I\u2019m not talking about \u2018risk management\u2019 in the sense used in the 2009 White Paper. That was about hedging against changes in the strategic environment through the maintenance of a robust capability base coupled with regular reassessments. Sensible as that is, it\u2019s at best a fragment of true risk-based approach to defence planning. My agenda is more ambitious; I contend that defence and strategic planning begins and ends with the management of strategic risk.<\/p>\n

Let me begin by explaining what I mean by a strategic risk. I define a strategic risk to be an adverse event whose likelihood can be diminished <\/em>by the possession of armed forces or consequences mitigated <\/em>through the use of armed force. Other definitions of strategic risk are of course possible\u2014there is at least one for each of the myriad ways in which the word strategic can be used\u2014but this one suits my purposes. (As an aside, Hugh White\u2019s carefully circumscribed definition of strategic interests<\/a> bears close examination.)<\/p>\n

Note that a risk-based approach to defence planning implicitly assumes that a country\u2019s military posture is defensive rather than aggressive\u2014which is undoubtedly the case for Australia. Note also, that there is nothing in my definition to preclude non-military remedies. It will often be more cost effective to prevent a problem from emerging through diplomacy or foreign aid than to threaten or employ armed force.<\/p>\n

Although Australian Defence White Papers have not traditionally depicted defence planning as an exercise in managing risk (in the sense I mean it), the essential features of a risk-based approach are present. Setting aside the various chapters dealing with the inputs to capability (personnel, industry, science, etc.), in one way or another every White Paper since 1976 has included the following elements:<\/p>\n