{"id":49259,"date":"2019-07-22T15:20:50","date_gmt":"2019-07-22T05:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=49259"},"modified":"2019-07-22T16:04:16","modified_gmt":"2019-07-22T06:04:16","slug":"sociable-nuclear-proliferation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/sociable-nuclear-proliferation\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Sociable\u2019 nuclear proliferation"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In recent weeks a lively debate has swirled around Hugh White\u2019s canvassing<\/a> of a possible indigenous nuclear-weapon program in Australia\u2019s future\u2014or, more accurately, in that version of Australia\u2019s future where the US presence in Asia and extended nuclear deterrence have collapsed and Australia, \u2018home alone\u2019, is attempting to defend itself against a hostile, powerful China. In this post, I want to transplant that scenario to the broader regional framework and unpack some preliminary thoughts about what Australian strategy\u2014as opposed to Australian defence\u2014might look like.<\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve observed in a previous post<\/a>, the failure of US extended nuclear deterrence would result in a profound imbalance of residual nuclear capabilities in Asia. The remaining nuclear powers would be\u2014in order of arsenal size\u2014Russia, China, Pakistan, India and North Korea. (Russia\u2019s arsenal is currently measured in the thousands, China\u2019s in the hundreds, Pakistan\u2019s at about 140 warheads, India\u2019s at perhaps 120 warheads, and North Korea\u2019s at roughly 40\u201370 warheads.) Only one of the five is a democracy and it has the second smallest nuclear arsenal and a strategic doctrine that still bears the marked imprint of non-alignment. Even without a single warhead being fired in anger, the gravitational effects of that imbalance would be felt\u2014intolerably\u2014across the region.<\/p>\n

Now, that\u2019s the scenario which underpins the current debate over whether Australia might reconsider its nuclear options. But, so far, much of our debate has centred too narrowly on our immediate defence needs and on whether we even have the capabilities<\/a> to build nuclear weapons anyway. There\u2019s a much bigger question that arises, and it\u2019s one that concerns a range of regional countries and not merely Australia. Isn\u2019t this a situation where a\u2014measured\u2014cascade of proliferation would enhance regional stability rather than undermine it?<\/p>\n

If we judged that rectifying the regional nuclear imbalance was important to us, we\u2019d see our policy options in a different light. Australian proliferation would probably be part of the rectification, but a small and slow part. By ourselves, it would take decades to build a credible arsenal. And geography still wouldn\u2019t be our friend\u2014the brutal truth, which in many ways is a virtue for Australian security too, is that Australia stands too far back from the critical force balances along the Eurasian rimlands to be seen as a central player. In short, regional stability would continue to turn primarily upon balances other than the China\u2013Australia one.<\/p>\n

So, might we see nuclear-weapon programs unfold elsewhere across the region? Yes. And we shouldn\u2019t expect them to look like the proliferation efforts of the past, which were typically national-centric efforts. The nuclear-weapon states the world has now are\u2014broadly\u2014great powers and rogues. Great powers needed little help to proliferate; rogues attracted little help to proliferate. But we shouldn\u2019t automatically expect status quo middle powers, driven by a sudden imperative to proliferate, to behave the same way. \u2018Sociable\u2019 proliferation, where partners work together to obtain nuclear capabilities, is much more likely\u2014particularly if those middle powers share a set of strategic interests that they see as stabilising and regionally beneficial. Thus we might see both a new, cooperative model of proliferation and a different region emerge at the same time.<\/p>\n

Of course, sociable proliferation would still mean the end of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. A range of status quo states would have to leave the treaty, and they\u2019d probably be leaving not one by one but two by two. Their doing so would, in all probability, collapse the tent. After all, Asia\u2019s not the only region where a sudden cascade of proliferation might make sense. Nuclear-weapon programs would likely spring up elsewhere\u2014in both the Middle East and Europe, for example\u2014whether Asia acted or not. Some would succeed, some would fail; not all countries are well placed to proliferate sociably.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s wrench the argument back closer to home. Would there be a case for Australia to do more to support rectification of the nuclear imbalance in Asia and, if so, what should we be doing? (Just as a forewarning, readers should remember that the following recommendations are scenario-dependent\u2014they are not <\/em>designed for the world we live in now, or even for the world most likely to come into being.)<\/p>\n

Since the fundamentals of Australian security are set at the Eurasian rimlands, yes, Australia should be doing more to correct the nuclear imbalance the scenario depicts. We might do so, timidly, by signalling our understanding of other countries\u2019 proliferation efforts in cases which we saw as regionally stabilising. Signalling is cheap but not especially sociable. More practically, we might consider a range of supportive or cooperative linkages to other countries\u2019 efforts. At the other end of the spectrum from supportive signalling are actual joint proliferation programs where countries share both the burdens and the rewards of proliferation.<\/p>\n

Northeast Asian countries are generally further down the track in terms of nuclear latency than their Southeast Asian counterparts. So we would be talking a lot more to Japan and South Korea about shared interests and prospects for cooperation. Within Southeast Asia, we would probably be canvassing with Indonesia and Vietnam the opportunities to enhance bilateral or even trilateral cooperation. And we would likely be talking to New Delhi about how Australia could help India strengthen its position on the regional nuclear ladder.<\/p>\n

Thinking about Hugh White\u2019s scenario in its strategic dimensions highlights just what a different world that might yet turn out to be. Big questions would confront Australia\u2014and none of them would have simple, rules-based answers. But the big questions would likely reinforce our core strategic principle: that partnerships have been the basis of real Australian leverage in the world and we should work with others, not alone, even in the hard area of proliferation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent weeks a lively debate has swirled around Hugh White\u2019s canvassing of a possible indigenous nuclear-weapon program in Australia\u2019s future\u2014or, more accurately, in that version of Australia\u2019s future where the US presence in Asia …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":49264,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,116,356,31],"class_list":["post-49259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-nuclear-deterrence","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-united-states","dinkus-defending-australia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018Sociable\u2019 nuclear proliferation | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/sociable-nuclear-proliferation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018Sociable\u2019 nuclear proliferation | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In recent weeks a lively debate has swirled around Hugh White\u2019s canvassing of a possible indigenous nuclear-weapon program in Australia\u2019s future\u2014or, more accurately, in that version of Australia\u2019s future where the US presence in Asia ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/sociable-nuclear-proliferation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-07-22T05:20:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-07-22T06:04:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/180515-M-OQ666-0230.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"825\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"551\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rod Lyon\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/sociable-nuclear-proliferation\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/180515-M-OQ666-0230.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/180515-M-OQ666-0230.jpg\",\"width\":825,\"height\":551,\"caption\":\"U.S. Marines, Sailors and Australian Defence Force personnel row a Zodiac boat during exercise Croix Du Sud at Noumea, New Caledonia, May 14, 2018. 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