{"id":49315,"date":"2019-07-24T11:00:33","date_gmt":"2019-07-24T01:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=49315"},"modified":"2019-07-24T11:00:33","modified_gmt":"2019-07-24T01:00:33","slug":"america-needs-to-talk-about-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/america-needs-to-talk-about-china\/","title":{"rendered":"America needs to talk about China"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Of all the changes in US foreign policy that President Donald Trump\u2019s administration has made, the most consequential is the adoption of a confrontational stance towards China. Replacing a decades-old policy of engagement, Trump\u2019s approach has not only resulted in an economic cold war between the world\u2019s two largest economies; it has also raised the spectre of armed conflict in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n

Within the first year of his presidency, Trump labelled<\/a> China a strategic \u2018competitor\u2019 and \u2018rival power\u2019. But it\u2019s not just Trump: for the US national security establishment and leading Republican members of Congress\u2014as well as some Democrats\u2014China represents the most serious long-term threat to America\u2019s global pre-eminence and vital interests.<\/p>\n

Geopolitics has been the primary cause of the rapid deterioration of US\u2013China relations over the past two years, and Trump\u2019s trade war must be viewed in this context. US tariffs may be focused on undermining China\u2019s long-term economic potential, but the underlying motivation is to weaken China as a strategic rival.<\/p>\n

This should be clear from the fact that, despite Trump\u2019s economic justifications\u2014protection of US businesses\u2019 intellectual property and correction of the huge bilateral trade imbalance\u2014his tariffs are likely to do serious harm<\/a> to the US economy, as they unravel an economic relationship built over four decades. In substance, if not in name, America\u2019s China policy has become entirely adversarial.<\/p>\n

This shift has alarmed some of America\u2019s most experienced China scholars and former policymakers. In an open letter<\/a>, nearly 100 of them\u2014including both Republicans and Democrats, and many vocal critics of Chinese policies and behaviour\u2014recently called on Trump not to treat China as an enemy.<\/p>\n

The American public seems largely to agree. There is, to be sure, widespread antipathy towards China throughout the United States: according to the Pew Research Center\u2019s most recent survey<\/a> on the matter (conducted in August 2018), only 38% of Americans view China favorably, while 47% view it unfavorably. But only 29% of respondents cited China\u2019s military might as a cause for concern. A much larger share\u2014 58%\u2014are worried about its economic prowess. This suggests that, in the eyes of most Americans, the primary objective of relations with China should be to protect their livelihoods, not to initiate a geopolitical confrontation.<\/p>\n

Yet a geopolitical confrontation seems to be precisely what the Trump administration is engineering\u2014possibly at the expense<\/a> of many Americans\u2019 livelihoods. This disconnect reflects the extent to which the shift in America\u2019s China policy has occurred out of the public\u2019s view and without open debate.<\/p>\n

Such a debate is urgently needed. Though the trade war has been dominating headlines since it began, much of the American public is unaware of the extent of the transformation in US policy towards China, which exposes their country to an open-ended conflict with what will soon be the world\u2019s largest economy and its leading emerging power.<\/p>\n

In a democracy, a government cannot pursue a long-term struggle with a powerful geopolitical adversary without sustained political support from an informed public. Special attention should be paid to young people (who, according to Pew, have a significantly more favourable view of China than their elders do), because they will bear the brunt of the costs of the unfolding Sino-American cold war.<\/p>\n

For such a debate to be credible, the Trump administration will need to answer crucial questions about its China policy. First and foremost, what is the policy\u2019s ultimate objective? Possible answers include modification of certain Chinese behaviours or policies, containment of Chinese economic or military might, or outright regime change.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration would then have to explain how it intends to achieve its stated objective. Is \u2018economic decoupling\u2019, favoured by the China hawks in Trump\u2019s orbit, an effective or feasible strategy? The authors of the open letter argue that US efforts to decouple China from the global economy \u2018will damage [America\u2019s] international role and reputation, and undermine the economic interests of all nations\u2019. And could other countries\u2014even traditional US allies\u2014be convinced to support those efforts? Would the US be willing (or able) to go it alone?<\/p>\n

Whichever policy it chooses, the Trump administration must be able to justify it. Last October, Vice President Mike Pence effectively declared<\/a> \u2018cold war\u2019 on China in a blistering speech<\/a> that contained a litany of accusations, including interference in US politics and oppression of its own people. What Pence\u2014and the rest of the Trump administration\u2014didn\u2019t offer was a reasoned justification for America\u2019s treatment of China as an existential threat.<\/p>\n

The final question that must be asked concerns multilateral cooperation. To confront shared challenges\u2014some of which, like climate change and nuclear proliferation, actually are existential threats\u2014the world needs such cooperation more than ever. Can the US embrace a policy of confrontation towards China without precluding collaboration on issues where it is required?<\/p>\n

The signatories of the open letter\u2014as well as a slew<\/a> of renowned economists, politicians and thinkers\u2014have presented an informed and thoughtful statement of their collective views on China. The Trump administration must illuminate its own vision and goals to the people it is supposed to represent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Of all the changes in US foreign policy that President Donald Trump\u2019s administration has made, the most consequential is the adoption of a confrontational stance towards China. 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