{"id":49441,"date":"2019-07-29T15:23:14","date_gmt":"2019-07-29T05:23:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=49441"},"modified":"2019-07-29T15:35:31","modified_gmt":"2019-07-29T05:35:31","slug":"chinas-cambodia-gambit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-cambodia-gambit\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Cambodia gambit"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The news that China and Cambodia may have signed a secret agreement<\/a> for Beijing to have long-term control over part of Cambodia\u2019s Ream naval base, with the right to base People\u2019s Liberation Army naval vessels, military supplies and personnel, has caused a spike of concern about China\u2019s growing military presence across the ASEAN region. As regional expert Carlyle Thayer has observed<\/a>: \u2018China is likely to establish a military foothold in Cambodia as a result of a gradual process whose pace will be determined by the amount of political resistance in Cambodia and the region.\u2019<\/p>\n

The agreement is for 30 years, with automatic renewals every 10 years after that.<\/span><\/p>\n

Concerns have also been expressed about China\u2019s ability to exploit the nearby<\/span> Dara Sakor<\/span><\/a> international airport, being built by China\u2019s Union Development Group. It\u2019s located in the middle of the Cambodian jungle in the Koh Kong region, and the runway is clearly being designed to support large military aircraft as well as fighter aircraft.<\/span><\/p>\n

The naval base and airport add to<\/span> the 20%<\/span><\/a> of Cambodia\u2019s coastline now leased to Chinese companies, and make possible further Chinese military expansion at the expense of Cambodian citizens and sovereignty.<\/span><\/p>\n

The leaked agreement reinforces the broadly held view that Cambodia has slipped further into Beijing\u2019s strategic orbit. Thayer argues<\/a> that the Ream project is indicative of a broader trend which sees Cambodia\u2019s Prime Minister Hun Sen make \u2018a compact with the devil to ensure his regime\u2019s survival\u2019. He argues that that bargain will lead to Hun Sen ultimately ceding control on decisions involving China\u2019s economic presence in Cambodia to Beijing, noting that, \u2018Cambodia is no longer a sovereign actor; it may make requests for Chinese assistance, but it is China that determines what projects are funded and which projects are not.\u2019<\/p>\n

A key factor behind the agreement is China\u2019s debt-trap diplomacy driven by its Belt and Road Initiative. Hun Sen has accepted substantial Chinese aid<\/a> as part of signing up to the BRI, including US$600 million in loans, and Beijing has offered a further US$2 billion to enable it to build road and rail networks across Cambodia.<\/p>\n

The combination of Chinese economic loans and Chinese-built ports, airports, and road and rail links across Indochina not only gives Beijing strategic influence and enables it to coerce its neighbours into virtual vassal status, but also enhances the PLA\u2019s mobility and, ultimately, allows a forward strategic presence for China\u2019s military.<\/p>\n

This is what the BRI is all about. It\u2019s far from being a \u2018win\u2013win\u2019 outcome through interdependent development that benefits all. Instead, it\u2019s simply a win for a rising hegemonic China that seeks to reassert its role as a 21st-century Middle Kingdom.<\/p>\n

An expanding Chinese military presence in Cambodia is a game-changer for the security interests of ASEAN. ASEAN was conceived to enhance regional resilience, but any Chinese military facility\u2014even a dual-use facility\u2014is likely to be a disintegrative factor because it could potentially facilitate external military coercion against member states.<\/p>\n

The most immediate impact<\/a> of Chinese access to Ream would be on the unresolved maritime territorial dispute between Cambodia and Thailand generated by differences over a border agreement dating back to 1907, and the potential for Chinese access to oil and natural gas deposits in the disputed region. The presence of Chinese naval forces operating from Ream will alarm Thailand and raises the prospect of Chinese interference in the dispute.<\/p>\n

PLA Navy vessels\u2014or well-armed quasi-military forces such as the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia\u2014could adopt a more assertive profile on the high seas in the Gulf of Thailand, and into the South China Sea.<\/p>\n

Chinese naval forces deploying out of Ream could, for example, patrol near the Natuna Islands to protect illegal Chinese fishing activities, which have been challenged<\/a> by Indonesia in the past. It may also encourage China to more aggressively assert that the so-called nine-dash line extends south of these Indonesian territories. If that action was supported by the PLA Air Force, Indonesia\u2019s ability to respond to illegal fishing around the islands would become more challenging. Charles Edel notes<\/a> that:<\/p>\n

If you have a naval base in Cambodia, it means the Chinese Navy has a more favorable operational environment in the waters surrounding Southeast Asia \u2026 You have all of a sudden a mainland Southeast Asia potentially sitting behind a defensive Chinese military perimeter. This is by far the biggest implication.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Vietnam would certainly feel the pressure. Ream is about 100 kilometres from the Vietnam\u2013Cambodia border, and Chinese warships could operate south of Vietnam before turning northeast to support Chinese activities<\/a> along the Vietnamese coast in the disputed Spratly and Paracel island chains. In the air, the combat radius of PLA Air Force J-10Cs flying from Dara Sakor, using internal fuel, would bring all of Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore within range, as well as parts of Indonesia and Myanmar.<\/p>\n

A Chinese military base in Cambodia could also give China a greater ability to choke off maritime trade flows in any future blockade<\/a> of Taiwan as a prelude to a Chinese invasion in coming years. Conversely, it would increase China\u2019s chances of breaking a US-imposed distant blockade in such a scenario, denying the US and its allies\u2014including Australia\u2014an ability to operate unmolested across maritime Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n

A Chinese military base hosted in the middle of ASEAN is a tangible wedge into ASEAN solidarity and security. If ASEAN is to remain an effective grouping, its other member states must act to prevent Cambodia from undermining their collective security through this secret basing agreement.<\/p>\n

Cambodia\u2019s move supports China\u2019s ability to project maritime power along the maritime silk road into the far seas and oceans of the Indian Ocean. It acts as the next \u2018pearl\u2019 along what is now clearly emerging as a genuine \u2018string of pearls\u2019 that begins with Djibouti and extends through Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and now Ream in Cambodia. Each facility is adjacent to vital maritime choke points or astride critical sea lanes of communication.<\/p>\n

Alfred Thayer Mahan would argue that sea power is inherently a means to economic dominance and thus political influence. In Red Star over the Pacific<\/a><\/em>, Toshi Yoshihara and James Holmes note<\/a> that a Mahanian approach to sea power starts by recognising \u2018the necessity to secure commerce, by political measures conducive to military or naval strength \u2026 [M]ilitary access constitutes a guarantor of diplomatic access, while diplomatic access backed by military force is necessary to ensure commercial access and the economic blessings it bestows.\u2019<\/p>\n

Possessing forward bases like Ream means that Beijing will be far better placed to control the critical economic heartland of the planet that is centred around maritime Southeast Asia, keeping the sinews of global maritime commerce through this vital region firmly in its grip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The news that China and Cambodia may have signed a secret agreement for Beijing to have long-term control over part of Cambodia\u2019s Ream naval base, with the right to base People\u2019s Liberation Army naval vessels, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147,"featured_media":49442,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1920,214,52,25],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s Cambodia gambit | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-cambodia-gambit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s Cambodia gambit | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The news that China and Cambodia may have signed a secret agreement for Beijing to have long-term control over part of Cambodia\u2019s Ream naval base, with the right to base People\u2019s Liberation Army naval vessels, ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-cambodia-gambit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-07-29T05:23:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-07-29T05:35:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-1140059125-e1564377597614.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Malcolm Davis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Malcolm Davis\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-cambodia-gambit\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-1140059125-e1564377597614.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/GettyImages-1140059125-e1564377597614.jpg\",\"width\":900,\"height\":600,\"caption\":\"BEIJING, CHINA - APRIL 29: Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen arrives to meet with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People on April 29, 2019 in Beijing, China. 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