{"id":49547,"date":"2019-08-02T12:45:14","date_gmt":"2019-08-02T02:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=49547"},"modified":"2019-08-02T11:55:47","modified_gmt":"2019-08-02T01:55:47","slug":"hugh-white-needs-to-revisit-his-submarine-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/hugh-white-needs-to-revisit-his-submarine-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"Hugh White needs to revisit his submarine numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Hugh White\u2019s latest book<\/a> has stimulated an important debate on the defence capabilities needed to preserve Australia as a sovereign state.<\/p>\n

In the recent posts on this subject<\/a> on The Strategist<\/em>, there\u2019s been recognition of the insight and erudition of White\u2019s analysis, but much criticism of particular points he makes.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s one more perspective that I haven\u2019t yet seen fully covered. White, while dismissive of future fighting roles for surface warships, suggests a vastly enlarged fleet of submarines, possibly as many as 24 or even 36.<\/p>\n

What does he see as the future role for Australia\u2019s submarines that suggests we might need so many of them? The Strategist<\/em>\u2019s defence editor, Brendan Nicholson, summarised<\/a> White\u2019s view on that need:<\/p>\n

While submarines are considered to be the most effective weapon against other submarines, White argues that shouldn\u2019t be their function. The main targets of a new and much larger fleet of submarines will be an adversary\u2019s surface ships approaching through the archipelago to Australia\u2019s north. They would not then need the range to loiter off China\u2019s submarine bases.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Six Oberon-class submarines were in RAN service from 1969 to 2000 and the first of our six Collins-class vessel was commissioned in 1996. As far as I\u2019m aware, none of these 12 submarines has ever fired a weapon in anger. Does that mean they\u2019ve been a waste of money? Certainly not.<\/p>\n

Our subs have been an invaluable resource in patrolling waters around and to the north of Australia, gathering vital information, and conducting surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) over the past 50 years.<\/p>\n

But technology is changing, and manned submarines are no longer as important for the ISR role. Small unmanned surface vessels (USVs) like Boeing\u2019s Liquid Robotics Wave Glider<\/a> and Ocius\u2019s Bluebottle<\/a> are perfectly capable of transiting to, and then keeping watch for months at a time over, submarine and surface ship routes from our potential adversaries\u2019 bases. All the while, they will be feeding back live or stored video to their controllers, sometimes based thousands of kilometres away in Australia.<\/p>\n

Large unmanned underwater vessels (UUVs) like Boeing\u2019s Echo Voyager<\/a> are capable of being a \u2018mothership\u2019 to fleets of smaller UUVs which can be used for conducting underwater ISR, detecting and possibly neutralising minefields, and, if required, opposing submarines and mounting a kinetic attack against an adversary\u2019s surface warships.<\/p>\n

A large fleet of Australian submarines doesn\u2019t make sense in light of the potential employment of USVs and swarms of UUVs utilising artificial intelligence for many of submarine\u2019s classic roles. Also expect that any potential adversary will be adopting similar technologies in the maritime domain.<\/p>\n

The attractions of USVs and UUVs include removing humans from harm\u2019s way in lengthy and dangerous situations, relatively low cost, excellent ISR, and potential deniability or self-destruction if they are captured.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the problem of crewing the number of vessels envisaged by White. The navy has classified as secret the numbers of submarine commanders and crew currently in service, claiming that revealing the actual figures would provide vital information to the intelligence services of potential adversaries.<\/p>\n

But it doesn\u2019t take too much brain power to put a lower limit on these numbers. About 10 years ago crew numbers for the Collins class were raised from 42 to 58, including the commander. Assume two crews are required to provide rotations for the operational vessels, and that five Collins-class submarines are available for operations with the sixth undergoing full-cycle docking. Add a 20% loading for personnel undergoing shore training, on leave or otherwise unavailable.<\/p>\n

That suggests a minimum of 12 submarine commanders and just under 700 other personnel in the submarine force.<\/p>\n

White\u2019s recommended 24-submarine fleet would boost numbers to around 50 submarine commanders and 2,800 other crew. His 36-vessel fleet would need 75 commanders and around 4,200 other crew.<\/p>\n

Rear Admiral Rowan Moffitt\u2019s 2008 review of the sustainability of our submarine workforce highlighted that the navy has long experienced problems finding enough crew for its six-strong submarine fleet. Since that report, many changes have been made to improve recruitment and retention, but much larger numbers still seem unattainable.<\/p>\n

I have had the good fortune to spend time with two ex-RAN officers who successfully graduated from the very tough Perisher course<\/a> and went on to become RAN submarine commanders. Both are now retired from that role and are working in the defence industry. These types of RAN officers are a rare breed and it is a significant challenge to qualify sufficient candidates through the Perisher course. Half of those taking the course routinely fail, and it\u2019s mandated that they never go to sea in submarines again.<\/p>\n

Surely the answer is to upgrade some or all of our Collins-class submarines, in time replacing them with up to six Shortfin Barracudas, while putting a lot more effort into building fleets of USVs and UUVs. That would not only provide sufficient manned submarines for their specialist roles, but also greatly improve persistent maritime ISR and offer potent attack and self-defence capabilities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hugh White\u2019s latest book has stimulated an important debate on the defence capabilities needed to preserve Australia as a sovereign state. 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