{"id":5012,"date":"2013-04-03T05:30:12","date_gmt":"2013-04-02T19:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=5012"},"modified":"2013-04-08T15:25:44","modified_gmt":"2013-04-08T05:25:44","slug":"on-the-eve-of-iraq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/on-the-eve-of-iraq\/","title":{"rendered":"On the eve of Iraq"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"9\/11\"<\/a>The recent exchange between Graeme Dobell and Peter Jennings over Australia\u2019s commitment to Iraq highlighted the critical roles to be played by Parliament and the Public Service when war is being considered. I have but a small postscript to add. I believe that the onus to provide frank and fearless advice extends to everyone who earns a crust as an analyst or commentator in the public defence and foreign policy space. And just as it\u2019s always easier to hunt with the hounds and run with the foxes inside the system, the same is often true in the public domain.<\/em><\/p>\n

So for what it’s worth, here\u2019s what I was thinking on the eve of the Iraq war but didn\u2019t have the guts to publish at the time. The only changes I\u2019ve made are to correct spelling errors and typos. If nothing else, it might provide a counterbalance to the great many column inches that have been written in recent weeks with the benefit of hindsight.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

We stand on the brink of war, having willfully sauntered up to the precipice in the period since September 11. In those days immediately after those horrific yet spectacular attacks on Washington and New York, there was much debate about the world having changed fundamentally. But changed it has, though perhaps not in the manner most anticipated. Few would have predicted that the US would be ready to effectively take unilateral action against Iraq some 18 months later. This was a risk in the weeks after the attack\u2014a threat that should have passed by now.<\/p>\n

But no. The US is still angry and scared, and as a result it\u2019s looking for a fight. And they are willing to start a fight with barely a token of international support and in the absence of UN backing.<\/p>\n

So here\u2019s how it looks. The US is hell bent on invading Iraq. There are over 200,000 troops in position and they will launch operations within days. There is no hope that they will hold off, short of Saddam being hung by meat hooks in the square in Baghdad. There\u2019s a range of reasons given for this, sometimes it\u2019s to stop WMD from spreading to terrorist groups, sometimes it\u2019s to protect Iraq\u2019s neighbours or even to set her people free. Other times it’s part of a grand scheme to create the Arab world\u2019s first liberal democracy franchise, complete with a Mc-Parliament and drive-through judiciary. It all depends when you ask. Opponents to the war say that it\u2019s about oil\u2014if only there was that much though being put into it all.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about regime change\u2014a dumb idea whose time has come because of the ascendancy of neo-conservative ideologues in the administration. The balance of risks and potential benefits is out of whack by a Texas mile. There is a problem with Iraq but this is not the solution. In fact, the central problem facing the world is<\/em> the proposed solution. Some fear that both the UN system and the underlying Western alliance are under threat as a result\u2014that\u2019s probably true even though I don\u2019t think it\u2019s quite the loss implied by that statement.<\/p>\n

But the US is not alone. Blair and Howard are there shoulder to shoulder with Bush. Their story is a little simpler than that of the US. It\u2019s all about WMD and the threat of proliferation to terrorist groups. But it\u2019s just a story, and not a very convincing one. Ultimately they are both there because they think that it is in their respective country\u2019s strategic best interest to keep in good with the US. Even if that means following the US on a folly of historical proportions. And, most extraordinarily, even if that means that they have to squander their own political fortunes in the process. For Blair and Howard this has been, and will continue to be, a gamble.<\/p>\n

First, they gambled that they could get a UN resolution and mollify the substantial anti-war sentiments in their countries. They lost.<\/p>\n

Second, they are gambling on a quick, clean and successful war followed by a peace that is seen as fair, just and stable. On this roll of the dice their individual political fates will hang.<\/p>\n

Third, and most important, they are gambling that the US is worth having as an ally. This means that they hope the US will remember the support they have been given and repay the debt in due course. It also means that that they hope the US will eventually moderate its unilateral and bellicose tendencies. In the long run there\u2019s little point in having an alliance with a nation that makes emotive and dumb strategic choices.<\/p>\n

Of course all of this is the result of another leader taking a big gamble. Osama bin Laden\u2019s roll of the dice was September 11. Up until now he\u2019s lost big time. He\u2019s seen his terrorist network rolled back to the point that he\u2019s living in a damp cave in the hills of Pakistan with little or no influence. And to nil strategic effect. US forces have not left the Gulf\u2014far from it\u2014and no moderate Arab regime seems in peril of reverting to Islamic theocratic rule.<\/p>\n

But has he really lost? I suspect that the barbaric terrorist attacks of September 2001 were an attempt to elicit a disproportionate and imprudent response from the US, which in turn would ignite the Arab street against them. It failed in the first instance, though not for want of trying by the neo-conservatives in the US administration. But the dice has now been passed to Bush to roll. What more could Osama bin Laden ask for than what the US is now on the verge of doing?<\/p>\n

One Moment in Annihilation\u2019s Waste<\/p>\n

One Moment, of the Well of Life to taste \u2013<\/p>\n

The Stars are setting, and the Caravan<\/p>\n

Draws to the Dawn of Nothing \u2013 Oh make Haste!<\/p>\n

Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Mark Thomson is senior analyst for defence economics<\/em> at ASPI. Image courtesy of Flickr user 9\/11 Photos<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

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