{"id":50219,"date":"2019-08-30T11:00:17","date_gmt":"2019-08-30T01:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=50219"},"modified":"2019-08-30T13:06:28","modified_gmt":"2019-08-30T03:06:28","slug":"the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/","title":{"rendered":"The reforms Kazakhstan needs"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kazakhstan\u2019s former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who resigned in March after nearly 30 years in power, was a great admirer of the Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew. For Nazarbayev, Lee\u2019s leadership showed<\/a> the importance of strengthening the economy before liberalising politics. But the flaws in that approach are now on stark display.<\/p>\n

As Nazarbayev put it<\/a>, \u2018The middle class will not emerge without a sustainable economy, which cannot exist without a sufficiently strong and wise leadership capable of getting the country out of freefall.\u2019 But a sustainable economy is not what his government built. Instead, it relied on oil revenues\u2014which constituted<\/a> more than 27% of the country\u2019s overall budget in 2014\u2014to keep taxes low, effectively buying citizens\u2019 acquiescence to authoritarianism<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When global oil prices plummeted<\/a> in 2014, from over US$100 per barrel to about US$50, Kazakhstan was hit hard. The local currency, the tenge, lost<\/a> nearly half its value against the US dollar, real incomes dropped to pre-oil-boom levels, and unemployment skyrocketed, especially among the young.<\/p>\n

But the problem extends far beyond economics. Amid surging inequality, frustration with pervasive corruption has intensified. In 2018, Kazakhstan ranked 124th out of 180 countries in Transparency International\u2019s corruption perceptions index<\/a>. Meanwhile, the state is failing to provide basic security: in July 2018, an Olympic ice-skating medallist, Denis Ten, was murdered<\/a> in broad daylight in the centre of Kazakhstan\u2019s largest city, Almaty, for trying to prevent his car mirrors from being stolen.<\/p>\n

All of this has made emigration<\/a> an increasingly appealing option, especially for young people, raising the spectre of a \u2018brain drain\u2019. It has also turned up the heat on simmering social unrest, which has boiled over since Nazarbayev\u2019s resignation (which may well have been intended specifically to pre-empt popular protests).<\/p>\n

Nazarbayev claims<\/a> that he wants to help a \u2018new generation of leaders\u2019, and his resignation did, for a brief moment, give Kazakh citizens hope that change was coming. But Nazarbayev installed a loyal successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who used his first presidential decree to name the capital city after Nazarbayev and then called a snap election that, like those held by his mentor and patron, was rigged<\/a>. According to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the 9 June election<\/a> \u2018was tarnished by clear violations of fundamental freedoms, as well as pressure on critical voices\u2019. When hundreds of people took to the streets of two major cities to protest the vote, about 500 were detained<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Nazarbayev also retained sweeping powers: not only is he lifelong chairman of the influential security council; he has also devised a new title for himself\u2014the so-called Elbasy<\/em>, or \u2018leader of the nation\u2019\u2014that grants him immunity from any prosecution. Last month, on Nazarbayev\u2019s 79th birthday\u2014a national holiday tied to the renaming of the capital from Astana to Nur-Sultan\u2014protesters again held rallies, this time demanding that he cede all power. Dozens were arrested<\/a>.<\/p>\n

More than 4,000 people have been detained<\/a> in all the protests during and since the election, according to Erlan Turgumbayev, the minister of internal affairs. The UN Human Rights Office for Central Asia has called<\/a> the crackdown on peaceful protesters, activists and journalists during and after the presidential election \u2018extremely regrettable\u2019. Given Tokayev\u2019s former position as UN deputy secretary-general, this condemnation should sting.<\/p>\n

In any case, Kazakhs are not done fighting, and grassroots movements\u2014organised through social media and financed through crowdfunding\u2014are leading the way. One such movement, called Oyan, Qazaqstan<\/em> (Wake up, Kazakhstan), emerged just before the June election. After making clear that it\u2019s not a political party trying to secure power, it introduced a nine-part program focused<\/a> on reforming the electoral system, shifting to parliamentary rule, preventing political repression and protecting human rights.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, ongoing political instability and the resulting capital flight, even more than economic factors, are driving down the value of the tenge, which last month reached its lowest point<\/a> since 2016. This highlights a reality that Tokayev has recognised<\/a> rhetorically but still has to prove with real political reforms: contrary to the logic of Nazarbayev and Lee, economics doesn\u2019t always take precedence over politics.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean that there are no economic solutions to Kazakhstan\u2019s struggles. In my view, three economic reforms should urgently be pursued to help address inequality and unemployment in the short term.<\/p>\n

First, the tax system needs to be overhauled to encourage the development of micro- and small businesses that can help to create jobs. Second, in order to stimulate the growth of underdeveloped medium-sized firms, the government should grant them preferential treatment in public procurement. And third, tax revenues should be decentralised, with local authorities keeping more of the corporate taxes that they collect, thereby increasing their accountability to local business.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, appeasing Kazakhstan\u2019s people\u2014and thus stabilising its politics\u2014must take priority. That means, first and foremost, credible and concerted action to root out corruption and strengthen the rule of law. As a banner unfurled during a marathon in Almaty (which earned its creators 15 days in jail) declared<\/a>, the still-powerful Nazarbayev and his prot\u00e9g\u00e9, Tokayev, \u2018cannot run from the truth\u2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kazakhstan\u2019s former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who resigned in March after nearly 30 years in power, was a great admirer of the Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew. For Nazarbayev, Lee\u2019s leadership showed the importance of strengthening …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1006,"featured_media":50220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1858,1841,106,2450],"class_list":["post-50219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-authoritarianism","tag-central-asia","tag-democracy","tag-kazakhstan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe reforms Kazakhstan needs | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The reforms Kazakhstan needs | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kazakhstan\u2019s former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who resigned in March after nearly 30 years in power, was a great admirer of the Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew. For Nazarbayev, Lee\u2019s leadership showed the importance of strengthening ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-08-30T01:00:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-08-30T03:06:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2000_tenge_2006_r-e1567124721901.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"329\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kassymkhan Kapparov\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kassymkhan Kapparov\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2000_tenge_2006_r-e1567124721901.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2000_tenge_2006_r-e1567124721901.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":329},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/\",\"name\":\"The reforms Kazakhstan needs | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-08-30T01:00:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-08-30T03:06:28+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/611fe818fbd3fa1571eb8b3b22c74579\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The reforms Kazakhstan needs\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/611fe818fbd3fa1571eb8b3b22c74579\",\"name\":\"Kassymkhan Kapparov\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/3e14fcc2029818e9262e29a518d1d1d4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/3e14fcc2029818e9262e29a518d1d1d4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Kassymkhan Kapparov\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/kassymkhan-kapparov\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The reforms Kazakhstan needs | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-reforms-kazakhstan-needs\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The reforms Kazakhstan needs | The Strategist","og_description":"Kazakhstan\u2019s former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who resigned in March after nearly 30 years in power, was a great admirer of the Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew. 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