{"id":50231,"date":"2019-08-30T14:16:51","date_gmt":"2019-08-30T04:16:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=50231"},"modified":"2019-08-30T14:22:16","modified_gmt":"2019-08-30T04:22:16","slug":"taiwans-presidential-election-playing-both-sides-of-the-strait","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/taiwans-presidential-election-playing-both-sides-of-the-strait\/","title":{"rendered":"Taiwan\u2019s presidential election: playing both sides of the strait"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

With elections due in early January 2020, Taiwan\u2019s presidential race is heating up. Besides the candidates from the two major parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), there\u2019s an outsider who is so far getting little attention.<\/p>\n

The mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, is yet to announce his formal candidacy but could be laying the foundations to run. On 6 August, he established<\/a> a new political party, called the Taiwan People\u2019s Party<\/a>, putting unity at the centre of his campaign. \u2018We will use the power of the people to change Taiwan\u2019, Ko said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At a time when Taiwan\u2019s democracy is being tested<\/a>, Ko\u2019s theme of unity is important. Despite the pride Taiwanese of all political persuasions have in their hard-won freedoms, there\u2019s a widespread recognition that Beijing is now chipping away at the foundations of Taiwan\u2019s young democracy.<\/p>\n

Much like the Republicans in the US in 2016, Taiwan\u2019s oldest political party has been hijacked by a populist<\/a>. In early July, the KMT selected<\/a> the pro-China mayor of Kaohsiung, Han Kuo-yu, as its candidate.<\/p>\n

Known for singing<\/a> KMT military songs at rallies, Han has been a consistent advocate<\/a> of interests close to Beijing\u2019s heart. Among Han\u2019s headline-grabbing policies is acknowledgement <\/a>of the so-called 1992 consensus, which posits that the mainland and Taiwan form one China, even if their respective governments may have different interpretations of how China ought to be governed. Beijing sees acknowledgement of the 1992 consensus as a prerequisite for dialogue with Taipei.<\/p>\n

Han\u2019s pro-Beijing stance wouldn\u2019t be such an issue if there were a strong incumbent. Despite a recent uptick in the polls<\/a>, President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-autonomy DPP is still trying to regain some political momentum after a few setbacks over the past year.<\/p>\n

Since taking office in 2016, Tsai has had to deal with Beijing\u2019s wrath<\/a>. In a nod to the pro-independence \u2018deep-green\u2019 faction of the DPP, Tsai hasn\u2019t recognised the 1992 consensus\u2014which she considers to be notion promulgated by the KMT in league with the CCP without the involvement of Taiwan\u2019s national government. Beijing has punished Tsai for not recognising the consensus, cutting off dialogue with her government in Taipei.<\/p>\n

Beyond disagreements on the 1992 consensus, Tsai\u2019s policy on China has been moderate, which has angered the DPP\u2019s pro-independence deep-green faction. During a session in September 2017, Tsai\u2019s deep-green former premier William Lai referred to himself as a \u2018Taiwan independence worker<\/a>\u2019 in the Legislative Yuan. The comments resurfaced<\/a> in April last year, weakening Tsai\u2019s authority<\/a> as she tried pushing back against Beijing<\/a> while keeping hold of Taiwan\u2019s few diplomatic allies.<\/p>\n

Tsai\u2019s most pressing problems are domestic. For socially conservative Taiwanese, her progressive agenda in favour of same-sex marriage<\/a>, pension reforms<\/a> and reparations from the KMT\u2019s authoritarian rule<\/a> has been a bridge too far. Liberal Taiwanese say she hasn\u2019t gone far enough. In trying to please everyone, Tsai has satisfied no one and the electorate\u2019s frustration is palpable.<\/p>\n

Beijing has inflamed the anger. In a report for the Financial Times<\/em>, journalist Katrin Hille<\/a> suggested that the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s intelligence services infiltrated Taiwanese media outlets to support Han\u2019s candidacy during November\u2019s local elections. Han has since used his mayorship in Taiwan\u2019s southern port city as a platform to launch a campaign for president, and the pro-Beijing media\u2019s coverage of him remains largely supportive.<\/p>\n

Han\u2019s connections to the mainland trouble many, especially those who support Tsai\u2019s DPP. In March, Han made a much-publicised visit<\/a> to the Chinese government\u2019s Hong Kong liaison office and also met with<\/a> Hong Kong\u2019s chief executive, Carrie Lam.<\/p>\n

More worryingly, Han received a public endorsement<\/a> from the founder of China Unification Promotion Party, Chang An-lo. Referred to in the media as the \u2018White Wolf<\/a>\u2019, Chang has known connections to organised crime<\/a> in both Taiwan and the mainland.<\/p>\n

Though a stable relationship with China is desired by many in Taiwan, Han\u2019s ties to Beijing are likely to make even the strongest supporters of the KMT suspicious. That, combined with his scuffles<\/a> with former KMT rival and Foxconn founder Terry Gou, suggests that Han may be making too many of the wrong enemies.<\/p>\n

Recent polls<\/a> suggest that support for both Han Kuo-yu and Tsai Ing-wen is falling, though Ko hasn\u2019t confirmed that he\u2019ll enter the race. Many voters aren\u2019t convinced that Tsai can keep her own party in order, and some conservative voters are growing tired of Han\u2019s bluster.<\/p>\n

Positioning himself in the political centre could turn out to be a viable strategy for Ko given the rising proportion of undecided voters. As mayor of Taipei, he has pleased neither Beijing unificationists nor Taiwan independence activists. \u2018Reunification and independence are fake issues\u2019, Ko observed<\/a> earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Playing both sides of the Taiwan Strait can make Ko seem disingenuous to some. He met with<\/a> the head of Beijing\u2019s Taiwan Affairs Office, Liu Jieyi, in July, raising questions about his own ties to Beijing.<\/p>\n

Ko is expected to announce whether he\u2019ll run or not by early September<\/a>. If he decides to do so, he\u2019ll need to win over moderate voters who are dissatisfied with Tsai but deeply sceptical of Han. Yet, such a strategy could siphon votes from Tsai and provide a path to victory for Han. That would mean walking Taiwan right into Beijing\u2019s perfect storm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With elections due in early January 2020, Taiwan\u2019s presidential race is heating up. Besides the candidates from the two major parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), there\u2019s an outsider who is …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":592,"featured_media":50232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,83,392],"class_list":["post-50231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-elections","tag-taiwan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTaiwan\u2019s presidential election: playing both sides of the strait | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/taiwans-presidential-election-playing-both-sides-of-the-strait\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Taiwan\u2019s presidential election: playing both sides of the strait | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With elections due in early January 2020, Taiwan\u2019s presidential race is heating up. 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