{"id":50424,"date":"2019-09-09T06:00:32","date_gmt":"2019-09-08T20:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=50424"},"modified":"2019-09-09T06:38:51","modified_gmt":"2019-09-08T20:38:51","slug":"bereft-by-brexit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/","title":{"rendered":"Bereft by Brexit"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

With Britain as the mother country and the US as the alliance father, Australia has a dysfunctional family.<\/p>\n

Mum has gone nuts; dad has gone rogue.<\/p>\n

The anchors of the Anglosphere<\/a> are angry and adrift, distracted by nationalism mutating to nativism.<\/p>\n

Domestically, the US system is so strong and dynamic it will recover from Trump. The worrying question is whether the international system that the US created can also rebound.<\/p>\n

The prognosis for Britain is darker.<\/p>\n

The British polity is doing lasting damage to the nation. As Martin Wolf<\/a> observed in the Financial Times<\/em> in March, the UK \u2018has fallen into the hands of lunatics engaged in an astonishing act of national self-harm\u2019.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve always loved the Poms. I was fascinated by my grandmother\u2019s stories of growing up in London (especially her memory of German zeppelins bombing the city during World War I). I\u2019ve lived and worked in London (our son was born there), but I\u2019ve never doubted I was an outsider, branded on the tongue as foreign. So this is an outsider\u2019s sorrowful view of what Brexit is doing to the Brits.<\/p>\n

The 2016 referendum result was as much a vote against recession, austerity and the stresses of modern life as it was a vote against Europe. But visiting London last year it was clear the Brexit obsession had become permanent. And to be in London last week was to witness the lunacy gone amok.<\/p>\n

Three big conclusions can be stated as established facts.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. British politics is deeply polarised. Another election is inevitable. The poll may deliver a realignment of political power, or merely entrench the polarisation.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Britain is leaving Europe. The economics of this is dumb, even mad. Britain will be relatively poorer because of Brexit.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Britain will be a weaker international power, with less diplomatic and strategic influence.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    On the first point, it\u2019s not too far-fetched to muse about Britain taking on some features of a failed state because of the way its politics and institutions are rupturing.<\/p>\n

    Chris Patten<\/a>, former minister and Conservative Party chairman, is one of those who has summoned up the failed state image, as British politics lurches to extremes on both the left and the right: \u2018As Brexit looms ever closer, Britain\u2019s institutions, economic prospects, constitution, and future are all at risk. But the reckless plunge into delusion and lies proceeds apace.\u2019<\/p>\n

    Those thoughts were penned before new prime minister Boris Johnson moved to sideline parliament and then purged Tory grandees who voted against him.<\/p>\n

    On poorer Britain, the impacts are already being felt. The UK economy is \u20182.3 per cent smaller<\/a> than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union\u2019.<\/p>\n

    As the economics editor<\/a> of The Times<\/em> reported: \u2018Confidence has fallen to its lowest ever level, consumer purchases have recently worsened, employment fell at one of the fastest rates in almost seven years and capital investment shrank … Companies scaled back production in response to the steepest drop in new order intakes since mid-2012.\u2019<\/p>\n

    The Brexit assurance is that a tough transition will deliver a wonderful future. The reality is that Britain will impose permanent barriers on its biggest market.<\/p>\n

    As the Oxford economist Simon Wren-Lewis keeps hammering: \u2018What the UK is doing is utterly, utterly stupid<\/a>. An act of self harm with no point, no upside.\u2019<\/p>\n

    The third point about Britain being a weaker power, with less strategic and diplomatic influence, is where the lunacy really feeds on itself.<\/p>\n

    It\u2019s tempting to say that in lurching towards the European exit, the Brits have chosen their history over their geography. In fact, Brexit is as ignorant about history as it is about geography and economics.<\/p>\n

    Britain\u2019s diplomatic and strategic history is as Europe\u2019s offshore balancer<\/a>. That strategy means being deeply involved in Europe to stop any one country from dominating the continent, not sulking offshore.<\/p>\n

    David Blagden<\/a> notes that, \u2018after nearly 500 years of seeking to prevent a single great power from controlling the whole of western Europe, British withdrawal from the European Union could pave the way for precisely that outcome\u2019. Johnson, the man who loves Churchillian World War II images, is going to surrender to the Germans.<\/p>\n

    Exiting the European superstate means giving up Britain\u2019s historic role. It\u2019s turning away from traditional balance-of-power realism as well as abandoning the great European effort to live in peace.<\/p>\n

    Martin Wolf commented in July: \u2018The UK the world thought it knew\u2014stable, pragmatic, respected\u2014is gone, probably forever<\/a>. Lost reputations are not readily regained.\u2019 Whatever sort of Britain emerges from the other side of Brexit, it\u2019ll have a reduced role and reputation in Europe.<\/p>\n

    Britain is going to have less say in what Europe does and how Europe acts. Less diplomatic influence. Less power.<\/p>\n

    Britain\u2019s oft-cited \u2018special relationship\u2019 with the US will be less special and less important. A poorer nation with a fainter voice in Europe will have a weaker voice in Washington.<\/p>\n

    Polarised, poorer and with less power\u2014Britain is bereft by Brexit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    With Britain as the mother country and the US as the alliance father, Australia has a dysfunctional family. Mum has gone nuts; dad has gone rogue. The anchors of the Anglosphere are angry and adrift, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":50426,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2578,1631,325,141],"class_list":["post-50424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-boris-johnson","tag-brexit","tag-europe","tag-united-kingdom"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBereft by Brexit | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bereft by Brexit | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With Britain as the mother country and the US as the alliance father, Australia has a dysfunctional family. Mum has gone nuts; dad has gone rogue. The anchors of the Anglosphere are angry and adrift, ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-08T20:00:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-09-08T20:38:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/GettyImages-1165816955.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"682\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Graeme Dobell\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Graeme Dobell\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/GettyImages-1165816955.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/GettyImages-1165816955.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":682,\"caption\":\"LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - SEPTEMBER 3: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson reacts as he greets NHS workers as they take afternoon tea inside 10 Downing Street on September 3, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. Yesterday evening Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Conservative MPs not to vote against the government in tonight's Bill that will block a no deal Brexit. Several MPs have vowed to vote with the opposition regardless of the personal consequences. (Photo by Daniel Leal-Olivas-WPA Pool\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/\",\"name\":\"Bereft by Brexit | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-08T20:00:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-09-08T20:38:51+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Bereft by Brexit\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f\",\"name\":\"Graeme Dobell\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Graeme Dobell\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dobell\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Bereft by Brexit | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Bereft by Brexit | The Strategist","og_description":"With Britain as the mother country and the US as the alliance father, Australia has a dysfunctional family. Mum has gone nuts; dad has gone rogue. The anchors of the Anglosphere are angry and adrift, ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-09-08T20:00:32+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-09-08T20:38:51+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":682,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/GettyImages-1165816955.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Graeme Dobell","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Graeme Dobell","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/GettyImages-1165816955.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/GettyImages-1165816955.jpg","width":1024,"height":682,"caption":"LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - SEPTEMBER 3: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson reacts as he greets NHS workers as they take afternoon tea inside 10 Downing Street on September 3, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. Yesterday evening Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Conservative MPs not to vote against the government in tonight's Bill that will block a no deal Brexit. Several MPs have vowed to vote with the opposition regardless of the personal consequences. (Photo by Daniel Leal-Olivas-WPA Pool\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/","name":"Bereft by Brexit | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-09-08T20:00:32+00:00","dateModified":"2019-09-08T20:38:51+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bereft-by-brexit\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Bereft by Brexit"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/ed3342cd61abc65c1532f3cc46bdf96f","name":"Graeme Dobell","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dff56734d4df784248f63058b7b6900a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Graeme Dobell"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dobell\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50424"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/79"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50424"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50424\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50432,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50424\/revisions\/50432"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}