{"id":50536,"date":"2019-09-12T14:55:41","date_gmt":"2019-09-12T04:55:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=50536"},"modified":"2019-09-12T14:51:21","modified_gmt":"2019-09-12T04:51:21","slug":"bolton-for-the-exit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bolton-for-the-exit\/","title":{"rendered":"Bolton for the exit"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In the latest episode of \u2018Donald Trump: The Presidency\u2019, John Bolton is fired, proving that Trump can be the adult in the room. The Taliban didn\u2019t get to mark the 9\/11 anniversary at Camp David. The president hones his meteorological forecasting skills and campaigns around the country as though an election was in the offing. Phew! Here\u2019s the scorecard if you\u2019re having trouble keeping up.<\/p>\n

First up, its not just the adults (Jim Mattis, H.R. McMaster, Nikki Haley) who have left the room but also the ideologues (Steve Bannon, Bolton). Only the family prevails and even their roles are being more narrowly constrained. This is how Trump wants it. A rapid turnover of key staff means that he stays the central point in the vortex with no one able to hang on for long as a point of stability or source of wise counsel. Not that Bolton is often thought of in connection with either of those missions.<\/p>\n

Second, on Bolton, Trump made the right call. With Iran, Syria and Afghanistan\u2014to name three trouble spots\u2014Trump\u2019s instincts have proved to be more risk-averse than Bolton\u2019s reported preferences and the president\u2019s initial grand statements about withdrawing troops or threatening military action. On balance, that\u2019s a good thing. It shows that the president understands the difference between rhetoric and the consequences of making real decisions about military force. Trump tweeted about Bolton<\/a>, \u2018I disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions, as did others in the Administration\u2019. The \u2018others\u2019 is presumably Mike Pompeo, who strives to be more in sync with the president. Bolton, a feisty zealot, was never there just to go along for the ride.<\/p>\n

Third, get ready for the advent of the Full Trump. Yesterday, on the anniversary of 9\/11, Trump had been in office for 964 days. (Trump claims<\/a> he has done \u2018more than any other President in the first 2\u00a01\/2 years!\u2019) He\u2019s as comfortable in the Oval Office as he\u2019s ever going to be, and there\u2019s almost no one around him to push back on his less-considered decisions. Witness, for example, the bizarre story that officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were reportedly warned they could lose their jobs for contradicting Trump\u2019s announcement<\/a> that hurricane Dorian would threaten Alabama. (It did not.) His impulsiveness is obviously risky, but it\u2019s aimed more at the theatre of daily politics than international security, where he emerges as more cautious than his rhetoric would imply.<\/p>\n

Fourth, just like in the early months of his administration, the corridors of the White House are ringing hollow. This is the time in the election cycle when political appointees start to move to the private sector if they\u2019re not rusted on to the re-election effort. And when fewer senior figures are willing to step up to difficult and thankless jobs. Trump always said he was going to drain the swamp, but even the most disruptive political figure needs a few trusted advisers around. Gut instinct will only get you so far.<\/p>\n

Fifth, the administration never succeeded in getting its own team in place and that has hollowed out the capacity of the presidency to develop and articulate new policy. Trump may not care about that, but as John Howard used to say when he was prime minister, good policy is the foundation of good politics. In international security, for example, the National Security Council seems to have ground to a halt as a vehicle for developing coordinated policy across multiple agencies. Politicians who think that they are their own smartest strategists litter the policy byways of history.<\/p>\n

Lastly, it\u2019s all about campaigning. Read the president\u2019s tweets this week and you\u2019ll see they\u2019re liberally sprinkled with endorsements for candidates in a handful of special congressional district elections, as well as state gubernatorial and mayoral positions. Trump held another campaign-style rally in North Carolina and claims that the next presidential campaign against \u2018Sleepy Joe\u2019 Biden or \u2018Pocahontas<\/a>\u2019 Elizabeth Warren will be \u2018easier than 2016<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Has there ever been a president more absorbed with campaigning and less focused on governing? What we have seen this week is what we\u2019ll get for the remainder of Trump\u2019s term: intense political campaigning designed to mobilise his base by attacking his ideological opponents.<\/p>\n

It is uncertain whether this approach will get Trump re-elected, but what\u2019s clear is that his style of governing is well set and won\u2019t change between now and November 2020.<\/p>\n

This is the environment into which Scott Morrison will arrive next week for a state dinner<\/a> with the president. The challenge for the prime minister is to navigate the hazards of dealing with a president little interested in the history of 100 years of mateship<\/a> but very focused on the transactional business of alliance relationships.<\/p>\n

Australia continues to have an immensely positive brand in Washington. But Trump\u2019s test of the relationship, as of all others, will be \u2018What have you done for me lately?\u2019 There\u2019s a good story to tell, but keeping on the right side of an impulsive president has been a tricky task for many world leaders. Morrison would be well advised to have a list of upcoming alliance activities in his back pocket that will show Trump the current and future value of the relationship.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the latest episode of \u2018Donald Trump: The Presidency\u2019, John Bolton is fired, proving that Trump can be the adult in the room. The Taliban didn\u2019t get to mark the 9\/11 anniversary at Camp David. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":50538,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2047,1428,31,2397],"class_list":["post-50536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-us-relations","tag-donald-trump","tag-united-states","tag-us-alliances"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBolton for the exit | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/bolton-for-the-exit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bolton for the exit | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the latest episode of \u2018Donald Trump: The Presidency\u2019, John Bolton is fired, proving that Trump can be the adult in the room. 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