{"id":50652,"date":"2019-09-18T15:12:12","date_gmt":"2019-09-18T05:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=50652"},"modified":"2019-09-18T15:38:45","modified_gmt":"2019-09-18T05:38:45","slug":"what-the-strike-on-saudi-arabias-oil-facilities-teaches-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-the-strike-on-saudi-arabias-oil-facilities-teaches-us\/","title":{"rendered":"What the strike on Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil facilities teaches us"},"content":{"rendered":"
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ASPI has previously noted that we have come to take precision in modern warfare for granted. But weapons alone cannot achieve precision effects. Precision relies upon a large, often invisible infrastructure<\/a> that develops the targeting information required to employ weapons successfully: \u2018we can lose sight of the fact that the cost of precision targeting isn\u2019t the weapons themselves, clever as they may be, it\u2019s in the intelligence that we use to target them\u2019. If geospatial intelligence isn\u2019t available, or is incorrectly applied, it can result in a very precise miss<\/a>, as appears to have been the case in the Indian strike at Balakot.<\/p>\n

Poor targeting capabilities can result in civilian deaths and the destruction of critical humanitarian infrastructure. The Royal Saudi Air Force itself hasn\u2019t mastered precision strike, as one recent study<\/a> noted:<\/p>\n

Despite first-class precision tools, and prodigious US assistance, the Saudi air campaign [in Yemen] has incurred enormous human suffering and alarming damage to civilian infrastructure \u2026 [S]ome of this devastation is the result of a calculated insensitivity intended to coerce the Houthis, but much is not … What evidence is available, however, suggests that many of these high-profile mass-casualty mistakes are the result of RSAF difficulties with dynamic targeting. Specifically, the RSAF suffers from significant process shortfalls, a critical deficiency in weaponeering expertise, and tactically inept weapons delivery.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In contrast, the 14 September strikes on Saudi Arabia demonstrate considerable precision. Much analysis of the attack on the Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field has focused on identifying who conducted it and the weapons used<\/a>. There\u2019s good evidence based on weapons debris to suggest the attack used Quds-1 cruise missiles manufactured by Iran or by Houthi rebels in Yemen with Iranian support. But it\u2019s just as important to understand the targeting infrastructure behind the attack.<\/p>\n

One of the military benefits of precision strikes is that each weapon used can be targeted for maximum effect. Effects-based targeting requires a sophisticated understanding of how the system being attacked works. Most accounts of the strike on the refinery stress that the individual targets were not chosen at random but were selected based on a good understanding of what would have the maximum impact. Moreover, emergency flaring and fires along pipelines indicate second-order effects beyond the immediate target area. Yemen has a small number of oil refineries, so it\u2019s possible that the Houthis could have developed this understanding themselves. Iran, with many refineries, would also have been able to do this.<\/p>\n

In addition, each of the individual targets appears to have been hit very precisely. The repetitive precision is remarkable. As shown in the image below, each impact point is replicated over four tanks over a target area that\u2019s 200 metres long. The vertical accuracy of the impact points is also remarkable and suggests the use of the precise vertical coordinates that GPS-guided weapons require.<\/p>\n

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Commercial satellite imagery released by the US government showing the uniform and precision strikes against Abqaiq\u2019s separation and stabilisation spheroid domes.
\nSource: Maxar via US government<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

There are only two ways to gain this level of accuracy and precision. One is to have access to sophisticated geospatial intelligence in the form of orthographic imagery (imagery with embedded geospatial attributes). The other is high-resolution electro-optic and\/or infrared imagery to allow automated or \u2018human in the loop\u2019 image matching of targets. The second targeting method would require access to better quality imagery than that provided by Google, which indicates the attackers had access to high-resolution space-based imagery (or undertook a reconnaissance mission, which seems unlikely).<\/p>\n

Iran has limited space capabilities, so it\u2019s possible that the necessary data was provided by a state that does have advanced space capabilities, like Russia (which would have had a motive to offer its services due to the spike in oil prices the strikes caused) or China (which wouldn\u2019t have benefited in this way). It\u2019s also possible that rather than this being the result of a deliberate Russian effort to target critical infrastructure, the Iranians misused data provided to them by Russia under intelligence-sharing arrangements arising from their partnership in Syria. That\u2019s speculation, but just as weapons can proliferate, so can data. Counter-proliferation efforts will need to address both the hardware and software that enable precision strikes.<\/p>\n

But just as significant as the sophistication of the attacks is Saudi Arabia\u2019s inability to prevent them. A branch of the Saudi armed forces is dedicated entirely to air defence. It\u2019s equipped with state-of-the-art Western radars and missiles such as the US Patriot system, as well as older short-range missiles. Despite this, it wasn\u2019t able to defend what is arguably Saudi Arabia\u2019s most important economic asset. While the Saudis appear to have had some success in the past in using the Patriot system to shoot down ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis from Yemen, there\u2019s not yet any public evidence that they shot down any missiles in this attack. Even if they did, a lot still got through.<\/p>\n

These factors indicate involvement by an actor (or actors) with all or at least most of the following:<\/p>\n