{"id":51372,"date":"2019-10-21T13:30:54","date_gmt":"2019-10-21T02:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=51372"},"modified":"2019-10-22T17:23:51","modified_gmt":"2019-10-22T06:23:51","slug":"morrisons-chessboard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/morrisons-chessboard\/","title":{"rendered":"Morrison\u2019s chessboard"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Prime Minister Scott Morrison\u2019s successful US visit<\/a> should not be regarded as a \u2018set and forget\u2019 box-ticking exercise. Rather, it should be viewed as a sound basis for the government to pursue Australia\u2019s national interests over the remainder of Donald Trump\u2019s presidential term.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding the prime minister\u2019s sharing of Trump\u2019s embrace of \u2018sovereignty\u2019 and scepticism of certain UN bodies, trade looms as an area in which he will need to watch Trump closely. At the very least, Trump\u2019s abrupt withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria is a reminder that there will always be policy differences between Australia and the US.<\/p>\n

Just over a year out from the presidential election, Trump will be looking to show that the US is \u2018winning\u2019. While he is highly unlikely to directly target Australia\u2014we run a trade deficit with the US, pull our weight in defence spending, and are of growing strategic importance to the US\u2014Trump\u2019s trade goals may be inimical to Canberra\u2019s. For example, although Australia and the US have agreed on a strategic partnership on energy in the Indo-Pacific<\/a>, Trump will be keen for the US\u2019s bourgeoning liquefied natural gas sector to get a slice of the action in the region.<\/p>\n

As well as ensuring Australia isn\u2019t sacrificed as part of any deal between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Morrison will need to be attuned to US thinking on trade agreements with the UK, EU and India. Complicating this is that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes Australia, China and India\u2014but not the US\u2014could be concluded next month. Following this, there\u2019s likely to be renewed eagerness by corporate Australia to join China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative. Expect a prime ministerial visit to Beijing sometime next year.<\/p>\n

Before any visit to China, Morrison will go to India and Japan early next year. While the \u2018Quad\u2019 will colour much commentary, a card Morrison might play is reform of the UN Security Council by calling for permanent membership for India. (Trump has followed his predecessor Barack Obama in backing India as a permanent member.) While China would oppose such a move, it would be a powerful symbolic gesture that would affirm the Morrison government\u2019s view that the UN needs reform to maintain its legitimacy. India\u2019s proud non-aligned tradition will continue to act as a brake on it being an enthusiastic \u2018Quad\u2019 member.<\/p>\n

Russia will become more prominent on the prime ministerial radar. President Vladimir Putin will play a decisive role in the endgame of the conflict in Syria and that will have implications for Turkey, a key partner of Australia\u2019s. On the one hand, Putin will want to keep his ally Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria. On the other, Putin will see the US\u2013Turkey tensions as a means of weakening Turkey\u2019s commitment to NATO. If re-elected, Trump may choose to forge closer ties with Putin as a counter to China. And France, which, like Australia, is stepping up in the Pacific, is trying to bring Russia into the European tent, partly for the same reason.<\/p>\n

While the Trump administration expects Australia to take more responsibility in the South Pacific, it\u2019s also broadening strategic cooperation with Australia in infrastructure, overseas development, energy supply and critical minerals. Australia will encourage the US to build on these initiatives in forums such as APEC and the WTO and perhaps push for Trump to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership if he wins a second term. Last month\u2019s signing of the Fiji\u2013Australia Vuvale Partnership<\/a> was a significant development, the prelude to the announcement of a joint peacekeeping mission in the Middle East. The partnership may serve as a guide to the Morrison government\u2019s future engagement with other South Pacific nations.<\/p>\n

The joint facilities<\/a> will remain Australia\u2019s most valued military contribution to the US alliance and will continue to grow in importance as strategic weight shifts to the Asia\u2013Pacific region, space becomes more contested and nuclear arsenals are modernised. \u2018Extended nuclear deterrence\u2019 didn\u2019t die with the Cold War, and nor did concerns about Australian sovereignty in relation to Pine Gap. Due to the evolving technical capability of the joint facilities, the Australian public may understandably feel entitled to a ministerial update more frequently than every five to six years.<\/p>\n

While Australia hosting US missiles has been ruled out, there may be further collaborative developments in missile defence. This year\u2019s US missile defense review<\/a> stated: \u2018Australia participates in a trilateral discussion on missile defence with the United States and Japan. The United States and Australia meet annually to discuss bilateral missile cooperation. New areas of focus include joint examination of the challenges posed by advanced missile threats.\u2019<\/p>\n

And out of left field, the crisis in Syria will put pressure on Trump to offer sanctuary to Kurdish refugees. Don\u2019t rule out Trump asking Australia to assist in an effective quid quo pro for upholding the Australia\u2013US refugee resettlement deal agreed by Obama and former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prime Minister Scott Morrison\u2019s successful US visit should not be regarded as a \u2018set and forget\u2019 box-ticking exercise. Rather, it should be viewed as a sound basis for the government to pursue Australia\u2019s national interests …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1028,"featured_media":51375,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[17,285,376,2281],"class_list":["post-51372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia","tag-foreign-policy","tag-politics","tag-scott-morrison"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMorrison\u2019s chessboard | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/morrisons-chessboard\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Morrison\u2019s chessboard | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prime Minister Scott Morrison\u2019s successful US visit should not be regarded as a \u2018set and forget\u2019 box-ticking exercise. 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