{"id":51744,"date":"2019-11-06T15:15:05","date_gmt":"2019-11-06T04:15:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=51744"},"modified":"2019-11-06T15:10:48","modified_gmt":"2019-11-06T04:10:48","slug":"is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Australia needs to consider its options for projecting greater military power in an age where we can\u2019t assume that we\u2019ll get assistance from the US whenever and wherever we need it.<\/p>\n

In my recent Strategist<\/em> series on projecting power with the F-35, I looked at options to overcome the<\/a> jet\u2019s inherent range limitations so it can project further into the vast expanses of the Indo-Pacific. It can be done to some extent, but all scenarios require large-scale investment in enabling capabilities\u2014ranging from air-to-air tankers to off-shore bases\u2014as well as capabilities such as ground-based air defence to protect it.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d planned to examine the full range of strike options before unveiling the punchline\u2014namely, the B-21 Raider strategic bomber. But since ASPI analyst Catherine McGregor has reported<\/a> that two former air force chiefs think we need strategic bombers, I\u2019ll cut to the chase and look at whether that\u2019s a viable option.<\/p>\n

As context let\u2019s review some history. Australia has operated long-range bombers in the past\u2014the \u2018G for George\u2019<\/a> Lancaster bomber occupies pride of place in the Australian War Memorial. In the European theatre in World War\u00a0II, the RAAF flew Halifax, Wellington and Lancaster bombers, and it also operated long-range strike aircraft including B-24 Liberators in the Pacific.<\/p>\n

In the post-war period, Australia operated the Canberra bomber<\/a>. The Canberra\u2019s range was limited and it was replaced with the F-111C<\/a>, which had a combat radius of over 2,000\u00a0kilometres as well as the ability to be refuelled mid-air. That put Jakarta within its range, and while it\u2019s debatable whether Australia would have ever considered bombing our neighbour\u2019s capital, the capability itself certainly got the Indonesians\u2019 attention. And that\u2019s the point of high-end strike capabilities\u2014they act as a deterrent and shape others\u2019 thinking even if they\u2019re never used.<\/p>\n

So we\u2019ve recognised the need for long-range strike aircraft before. Today there aren\u2019t many options for a strategic bomber. Unless we acquire used US B-52, B-1 or B-2 bombers (all of which would come with a serious downside), the only option is the B-21 being developed by the US Air Force (Unmanned systems are potentially another option, but there\u2019s nothing out there right now.) There\u2019s not a lot of information available about the B-21, but the USAF\u2019s intent seems to be that it will be at least as capable as the B-2<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That suggests it will have an unrefuelled combat radius of around 5,000\u00a0kilometres. As shown in the figure below, that would allow it to operate from deep within Australia (I\u2019ve used Alice Springs to illustrate the point) and still cover the entire archipelago to our northwest, the South China Sea, our South Pacific neighbours, and the gap between Guam and Papua New Guinea.<\/p>\n

Figure 1: 5,000-kilometre combat radius from Alice Springs<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Because of its inherent range, the B-21 wouldn\u2019t require air-to-air refuellers. Being based well inland, it wouldn\u2019t be exposed to the same extent to the threats that our northern bases or offshore airbases are faced with. A strike platform like the B-21 would still require sophisticated enablers to find and precisely target an adversary in that huge combat radius. Those come at a substantial cost<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The B-21 could deliver a broad range of effects. A strike package of four aircraft could likely carry around 40\u201350 long-range maritime strike weapons, which would inflict unacceptable losses on any maritime or amphibious task force. If the target was the adversary\u2019s forward operating bases, a first wave of aircraft could use long-range stand-off weapons to destroy their air defences (including aircraft on the ground), with each bomber in a follow-up wave delivering around 80 precision-guided \u00a0JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) bombs, or around 200 small-diameter bombs.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the bombers could return the next day, unlike a submarine which could need a month to return to the fight after going home to reload once it had launched its handful of strike missiles. No other system could deliver a comparable weight of fire. It would certainly get the attention and shape the military planning of any power that wanted to operate in that huge circle.<\/p>\n

The B-21 could also be used tactically to deliver close air support to Australian and allied troops on the ground, as US bombers have done in the Middle East. A single B-21 could carry about as much ordnance as a squadron of F-35s but with greater range and persistence over the target and fewer enablers.<\/p>\n

But it wouldn\u2019t be able do everything. A B-21 won\u2019t perform anti-submarine warfare in the same way as the ADF currently does it with a combination of ships, submarines and aircraft. But it could do it in a different way\u2014for example, by striking enemy submarines in port or by air-dropping smart sea mines off those havens or in key choke points.<\/p>\n

Based on public information<\/a>, it\u2019s possible that Australia could get aircraft into service in the second half of the 2020s. So it couldn\u2019t happen overnight, but it\u2019s certainly faster than even the most optimistic future submarine schedule.<\/p>\n

Of course, that great capability comes at a great cost. The USAF is aiming at a unit cost of US$564 million<\/a> in 2016 dollars. That\u2019s if it can get the 100 aircraft it wants and escape the death spiral of other programs like the B-2 and F-22, which cut production numbers to reduce program costs. That drove up unit costs, which in turn forced cuts to projected unit numbers. So we would probably be looking at a cost of around A$1 billion per aircraft.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to know how many we\u2019d need for a viable capability. The RAAF acquired 24 F-111Cs, followed by 15 F-111Gs, but at retirement there were only 13 left in service. The USAF is operating a fleet of 20 B-2s. Let\u2019s assume the sweet spot is around 12 to 20 aircraft. Since total program costs are usually around 1.5 to 2 times the cost of the aircraft themselves, we\u2019d be looking at around $20\u201340 billion. That\u2019s a lot of money, but less than the cost of the future submarine program<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The real challenge is always affording the annual cash flow without gutting the defence budget. Unlike the future submarine program, which is drawn out over nearly 40 years, the bulk of the spending to acquire the B-21 would likely be compressed into five or six years, requiring around $5\u20136 billion per year. That\u2019s over half of Defence\u2019s capital equipment budget. And it\u2019s more than the entire local shipbuilding program when it is up and running (which has been declared untouchable<\/a>).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to see Defence being able to afford that without a massive cash injection from the government. But if the government is serious about addressing our worsening strategic environment, the B-21 would be an investment that made both friends and potential adversaries sit up and take notice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australia needs to consider its options for projecting greater military power in an age where we can\u2019t assume that we\u2019ll get assistance from the US whenever and wherever we need it. In my recent Strategist …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":767,"featured_media":51745,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,726,361,362],"class_list":["post-51744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-raaf","tag-stealth","tag-strike","dinkus-projecting-power"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia needs to consider its options for projecting greater military power in an age where we can\u2019t assume that we\u2019ll get assistance from the US whenever and wherever we need it. In my recent Strategist ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-06T04:15:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-11-06T04:10:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/b210611.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"714\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marcus Hellyer\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marcus Hellyer\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/b210611.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/b210611.jpg\",\"width\":1000,\"height\":714},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/\",\"name\":\"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-06T04:15:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-11-06T04:10:48+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87e4e7561c0d7071411d7d635b9e32c1\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87e4e7561c0d7071411d7d635b9e32c1\",\"name\":\"Marcus Hellyer\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ab3d49a0ff8e79106b3af65880612804?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ab3d49a0ff8e79106b3af65880612804?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Marcus Hellyer\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/marcus-hellyer\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia? | The Strategist","og_description":"Australia needs to consider its options for projecting greater military power in an age where we can\u2019t assume that we\u2019ll get assistance from the US whenever and wherever we need it. In my recent Strategist ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-11-06T04:15:05+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-11-06T04:10:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":714,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/b210611.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Marcus Hellyer","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Marcus Hellyer","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/b210611.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/b210611.jpg","width":1000,"height":714},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/","name":"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-11-06T04:15:05+00:00","dateModified":"2019-11-06T04:10:48+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87e4e7561c0d7071411d7d635b9e32c1"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/is-the-b-21-bomber-a-viable-option-for-australia\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Is the B-21 bomber a viable option for Australia?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87e4e7561c0d7071411d7d635b9e32c1","name":"Marcus Hellyer","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ab3d49a0ff8e79106b3af65880612804?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ab3d49a0ff8e79106b3af65880612804?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Marcus Hellyer"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/marcus-hellyer\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51744"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/767"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51744"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51747,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51744\/revisions\/51747"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}