{"id":51910,"date":"2019-11-14T10:59:32","date_gmt":"2019-11-13T23:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=51910"},"modified":"2019-11-14T10:59:32","modified_gmt":"2019-11-13T23:59:32","slug":"chinas-risky-endgame-in-hong-kong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-risky-endgame-in-hong-kong\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s risky endgame in Hong Kong"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Although the rapid escalation of violence in Hong Kong seems terrifying enough, things may be about to get much worse. The communiqu\u00e9 of the recently concluded fourth plenum of the 19th\u00a0Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party indicates that President Xi Jinping is planning to tighten his grip on the former British colony at any cost. He should prepare to rack up a formidable bill.<\/p>\n

The communiqu\u00e9 includes two ominous pledges. First, China\u2019s central government will \u2018control and rule\u2019 (guanzhi<\/em>) Hong Kong (and Macau) using \u2018all the powers vested in [it] under the constitution and the Basic Law\u2019, the mini-constitution that defines Hong Kong\u2019s status. Second, it will \u2018build and improve a legal system and enforcement mechanism to defend national security\u2019 in both special administrative regions.<\/p>\n

A few days after the plenum, the CCP\u2019s plan to assert its control over Hong Kong became clearer when it released the full text of the resolution endorsed there by its central committee. China\u2019s central government intends to change the process for appointing Hong Kong\u2019s chief executive and key officials, and reform the system governing how the Chinese National People\u2019s Congress Standing Committee interprets the Basic Law. Moreover, China will support the strengthening of Hong Kong\u2019s law-enforcement capabilities and ensure that the city government enacts legislation to enhance national security. It will also deepen Hong Kong\u2019s economic integration with the mainland and expand \u2018education\u2019 programs to cultivate a \u2018national consciousness and patriotic spirit\u2019, especially among civil servants and young people.<\/p>\n

Though the details of the plan have yet to be worked out, it seems evident that China\u2019s leaders intend to gut the Basic Law, exercise more direct control over the appointment of key officials, weaken or eliminate Hong Kong\u2019s judicial independence, curtail civil liberties and suppress political dissent, including through ideological indoctrination. In other words, they have decided effectively to abandon the \u2018one country, two systems\u2019 model, which Deng Xiaoping promised to uphold for 50 years after Hong Kong\u2019s return to Chinese rule in 1997.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s leaders must know that they will run into powerful resistance. While some initial steps will be taken in Beijing, the plan\u2019s most substantive measures will require action on the ground in Hong Kong. And if the ongoing protests have shown anything, it\u2019s that Hong Kong\u2019s people won\u2019t go down without a fight.<\/p>\n

In fact, China has tried to get Hong Kong\u2019s legislative council to pass national security legislation before, in 2003, but more than half a million residents took to the streets to protest, forcing the government to withdraw the bill. Likewise, China\u2019s attempt in 2012 to institute \u2018patriotic education\u2019 in Hong Kong by changing its history textbooks ignited a rebellion among parents and students, forcing the government to back down.<\/p>\n

As the CCP attempts to exert total control over Hong Kong, even larger demonstrations, marked by even more violence, are likely. The city will descend further into chaos and become ungovernable. But that may well be what China\u2019s leaders want: an excuse to deploy security forces and impose direct control over the city. In that sense, the fourth plenum may mark the beginning of the end of Hong Kong as we know it.<\/p>\n

What Xi and the CCP seem not to understand is how much this approach will hurt them. After all, China is likely to lose much of its access to the global financial system as countries revise their relationships with the new Hong Kong.<\/p>\n

Already, the US House of Representatives has adopted a bill that, if also passed by the Senate, would mandate an annual review by the State Department to determine whether Hong Kong remained sufficiently autonomous to justify its special trading status under US law. As China\u2019s central government tramples on Hong Kong\u2019s rights, more Western democracies\u2014including those that have hesitated to support US President Donald Trump\u2019s efforts to contain China\u2014are likely to support comprehensive economic sanctions.<\/p>\n

It should be obvious that this would be a devastating development for Xi and the CCP, whose legitimacy depends on continued economic growth and improvements in living standards. But in a country whose top leadership brooks no dissent, there are few safeguards against bad policymaking<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Two years ago, Xi declared<\/a> that by the time the People\u2019s Republic of China celebrates its centenary in 2049, it should be a \u2018great modern socialist country\u2019 with an advanced economy. The fourth plenum communiqu\u00e9 reiterated this objective. But if China\u2019s central government reneges on its obligations to Hong Kong, that goal is likely to become little more than a distant dream.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although the rapid escalation of violence in Hong Kong seems terrifying enough, things may be about to get much worse. 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