{"id":52023,"date":"2019-11-20T15:00:56","date_gmt":"2019-11-20T04:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=52023"},"modified":"2019-11-20T14:47:18","modified_gmt":"2019-11-20T03:47:18","slug":"leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The great irony of the Iranian intelligence reports<\/a> obtained by The Intercept<\/em> and published jointly with the New York Times<\/em> is that they don\u2019t necessarily expose Iran as the bad guy that Washington and others in the Middle East argue it is. If anything, the revelations published to date highlight the magnitude of the problems caused by successive US administrations that have pursued a destructive and counterproductive Middle East policy, which first created the opportunity for Iran to assert its interests in Iraq and then fixated on Iran as the greatest source of instability in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

The provenance of the documents is certainly curious: they\u2019re purportedly<\/a> from an Iraqi with access to secret intelligence reports from Iran\u2019s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) who wanted to \u2018let the world know what Iran is doing in my country\u2019. But the excerpts published so far present a credible picture of Iran\u2019s intelligence and security operations in Iraq and provide an interesting counterpoint to the US narrative on the security situation there.<\/p>\n

The New York Times<\/em> notes<\/a> that Iran\u2019s MOIS operatives are portrayed in the reports as \u2018patient, professional and pragmatic\u2019. Their focus was on keeping Iraq from falling apart and \u2018descending into sectarian warfare that might make Shia Muslims the targets of violence; and from spinning off an independent Kurdistan that would threaten regional stability and Iranian territorial integrity\u2019.<\/p>\n

The reports also outline MOIS\u2019s actions against Islamic State, which included conducting intelligence operations (resulting in penetrations of IS\u2019s leadership group), providing covert aid to IS\u2019s enemies and working to break its alliance with other insurgent factions. Intriguingly, Iran wanted to coordinate anti-IS operations with the US, but was frustrated by Washington\u2019s refusal to do so. One report<\/a> noted, \u2018The Americans\u2019 insistence on not cooperating with Iran in the war against ISIS and not participating in the meetings with the 10 countries of the region\u2014the Arabs and Turkey\u2014as well as the Western and Arab countries\u2019 extreme positions on the presence and role of Iran in Iraq has had a negative influence.\u2019<\/p>\n

The reports also document Iran\u2019s adroitness in filling the vacuum created by the US\u2019s 2011 troop withdrawal from Iraq. As part of the drawdown, the US terminated its relationship with most of its stable of intelligence sources in Iraq. Many of them then offered their services to MOIS, and some were debriefed by their new Iranian case officers on US intelligence priorities and tradecraft, including the locations of CIA safe houses, details of tactical and surveillance training, and the names of other US sources in Iraq.<\/p>\n

But the role assumed by Iran following the US\u2019s troop drawdown went much further than just taking over US intelligence sources across Iraq. By stepping into the void created by the US withdrawal, Tehran effectively assumed the role of security guarantor for Iraq. As noted<\/a> by The Intercept<\/em>, which references Colin Powell\u2019s Pottery Barn rule<\/a> to characterise the US\u2019s failure in Iraq, \u2018[T]he US shattered Iraq and ultimately walked away. It was Iran that ended up figuring out what to do with the pieces.\u2019<\/p>\n

The snippets from the intelligence reports confirm that both MOIS and Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp have penetrated the Iraqi political leadership, bureaucracy and military and are exercising pervasive influence across the country.<\/p>\n

Importantly, they also confirm strong differences between MOIS and the hardline IRGC on Iran\u2019s strategy in Iraq. MOIS was concerned that military operations by IRGC\u2019s Shia proxies in Iraq were alienating the local Sunni population, assessing that Iran\u2019s gains in Iraq where \u2018being squandered because Iraqis so resented the Shia militia and the Quds Force that sponsored them\u2019. MOIS singled out IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani for criticism, painting him as a \u2018dangerous self-promoter using the anti-ISIS campaign as a launching pad for a political career back home in Iran\u2019.<\/p>\n

But what the leaked reports make clear is that there are elements in Tehran\u2019s establishment\u2014specifically MOIS, but also potentially the Iranian Foreign Ministry\u2014that appear to be pursuing an Iraq policy more focused on ensuring security and stability than on establishing pervasive influence and Shia dominance. The problem for these more constructive elements in the Iranian government is that hardline elements from the IRGC, notably the Quds Force, are in the ascendancy and are determining the direction of Iran\u2019s operations in Iraq.<\/p>\n

And the problem for the US in this context is that the policies of Donald Trump\u2019s administration have arguably played a direct role in empowering hardline elements in Tehran at the expense of more moderate interests. As noted<\/a> in The Atlantic<\/em>, Washington played into the IRGC\u2019s hands by terminating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran\u2019s nuclear program at a time when Iranian President Hassan Rouhani\u2014who had expended political capital in support of the agreement\u2014had prioritised curbing the IRGC\u2019s reach. Furthermore, the US\u2019s resumption of sanctions against Iran directly benefited<\/a> the IRGC financially, because it dominates and profits from the black-market economy and smuggling network in Iran.<\/p>\n

One has to wonder when reading these excerpts what the security situation in the Middle East \u00a0would look like now if the US had put its differences with Iran to one side and made better use of opportunities for cooperation and collaboration, particularly in operations targeting IS. Such collaboration might have created space to resolve some of the more thorny issues arising from both the US\u2019s and Iran\u2019s activities in the region. It also would have empowered those in Tehran who are open to rapprochement with the West.<\/p>\n

And while it\u2019s highly unlikely that the Trump administration will change its trajectory with respect to Iran, which appears destined for military confrontation, hopefully the release of these intelligence reports will prompt key decision-makers in Washington to reflect on their strategy in the Middle East.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The great irony of the Iranian intelligence reports obtained by The Intercept and published jointly with the New York Times is that they don\u2019t necessarily expose Iran as the bad guy that Washington and others …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":624,"featured_media":52027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[170,247,191,218,2070],"class_list":["post-52023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-intelligence","tag-iran","tag-iraq","tag-middle-east","tag-us-foreign-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLeaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The great irony of the Iranian intelligence reports obtained by The Intercept and published jointly with the New York Times is that they don\u2019t necessarily expose Iran as the bad guy that Washington and others ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-20T04:00:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-11-20T03:47:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GettyImages-3102952.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"741\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Connor Dilleen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Connor Dilleen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GettyImages-3102952.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GettyImages-3102952.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":741,\"caption\":\"SAFWAN, IRAQ - MARCH 21: U.S. Marine Major Bull Gurfein pulls down a poster of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein March 21, 2003 in Safwan, Iraq. Chaos reigns in southern Iraq as coalition troops continued their offensive to remove Iraq's leader from power. (Photo by Chris Hondros\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/\",\"name\":\"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-20T04:00:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-11-20T03:47:18+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/389dc67a01eecedea4275e45b49ee20a\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/389dc67a01eecedea4275e45b49ee20a\",\"name\":\"Connor Dilleen\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d2da14bc9a81b7a93e8c0fd7686bf355?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d2da14bc9a81b7a93e8c0fd7686bf355?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Connor Dilleen\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/connor-dilleen\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy | The Strategist","og_description":"The great irony of the Iranian intelligence reports obtained by The Intercept and published jointly with the New York Times is that they don\u2019t necessarily expose Iran as the bad guy that Washington and others ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-11-20T04:00:56+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-11-20T03:47:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":741,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GettyImages-3102952.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Connor Dilleen","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Connor Dilleen","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GettyImages-3102952.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GettyImages-3102952.jpg","width":1024,"height":741,"caption":"SAFWAN, IRAQ - MARCH 21: U.S. Marine Major Bull Gurfein pulls down a poster of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein March 21, 2003 in Safwan, Iraq. Chaos reigns in southern Iraq as coalition troops continued their offensive to remove Iraq's leader from power. (Photo by Chris Hondros\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/","name":"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-11-20T04:00:56+00:00","dateModified":"2019-11-20T03:47:18+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/389dc67a01eecedea4275e45b49ee20a"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/leaked-iranian-intelligence-reports-illustrate-the-folly-of-the-uss-middle-east-strategy\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Leaked Iranian intelligence reports illustrate the folly of the US\u2019s Middle East strategy"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/389dc67a01eecedea4275e45b49ee20a","name":"Connor Dilleen","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d2da14bc9a81b7a93e8c0fd7686bf355?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/d2da14bc9a81b7a93e8c0fd7686bf355?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Connor Dilleen"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/connor-dilleen\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52023"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/624"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52023"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52025,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52023\/revisions\/52025"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}