{"id":52321,"date":"2019-12-04T11:00:24","date_gmt":"2019-12-04T00:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=52321"},"modified":"2019-12-04T10:38:50","modified_gmt":"2019-12-03T23:38:50","slug":"has-macron-gone-too-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Macron gone too far?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

You can be talented, handsome, rhetorically skilled and politically brave, and yet suffer for it. In the long run, prudence and restraint are crucial ingredients of successful leadership, and it is precisely those two qualities that, so far, French President Emmanuel Macron<\/a> appears to lack.<\/p>\n

Macron wants to lead the European Union into the 21st century. But he will succeed only if he doesn\u2019t go too far. If he overplays his hand, he will open himself up to a challenge from some other rising political leader. That could happen whenever Germany emerges from its domestic political malaise, if other member states decide to form a coalition against France, or if Macron alienates too many key players within the EU. The greater Macron\u2019s ambitions, the higher the risk to his political future.<\/p>\n

Politically, Macron is a contradiction in terms. A vocal anti-populist who employs populist tools, he has dismissed traditional political parties and called for politicians to be replaced by ordinary people. Accordingly, he insists that his La R\u00e9publique En Marche!<\/em> is not, in fact, a political party, and that he is neither of the left nor of the right. The main difference is that his program is not nationalist but pro-European, almost cosmopolitan, and that he opposes other populists. But his pro-European stance goes only as far as French economic interests allow, as he demonstrated when selecting nominees for the EU\u2019s top jobs earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Moreover, it\u2019s worth remembering that Macron led the push for tighter regulations<\/a> on \u2018posted workers\u2019\u2014particularly those from Poland and Hungary\u2014back in 2017, and that his toughest attack on Central and Eastern European populists was delivered<\/a> from a French Whirlpool factory that was scheduled to move to Poland. Macron may sincerely want deeper European integration, but that didn\u2019t stop him from nationalising<\/a> a French shipyard to prevent it from being purchased by an Italian firm.<\/p>\n

More recently, Macron has taken another page from the populist playbook by pursuing<\/a> warmer relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and declaring NATO \u2018brain dead\u2019\u2014language that was likely met with cheers in the Kremlin. Macron\u2019s warning about NATO was meant as a wake-up call for Europe to secure its own defence autonomy. It was also a reminder that France is a nuclear power, meaning it doesn\u2019t have to hide the doubts that other European leaders won\u2019t voice.<\/p>\n

Thanks to Macron\u2019s efforts, Russia returned<\/a> to the Council of Europe in June, following its suspension in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea. Then, at an ambassador\u2019s conference in August, Macron voiced support for Russia\u2019s return to the G8, and warned French diplomats not to stand in the way of his overtures to Putin. And in bilateral talks with Putin at France\u2019s Fort de Br\u00e9gan\u00e7on that same month, it was Macron, not his guest, who spoke<\/a> of a Europe that extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok.<\/p>\n

But EU\u2013Russia diplomacy isn\u2019t the only area where Macron has been flexing his muscles. In October, he issued a surprise veto<\/a> against EU accession negotiations with Albania and the Republic of North Macedonia, and he has since described<\/a> Bosnia-Herzegovina as a \u2018ticking time bomb\u2019. Both moves are seemingly at odds with his pro-European stance, and doubtless delighted Putin.<\/p>\n

In fact, Macron\u2019s recent manoeuvres are clearly in his own personal interest. His embrace of Putin is probably meant to head off a challenge from the French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, whose past financial backers have included Russian banks<\/a> with ties to the Kremlin. And by blocking North Macedonia\u2019s and Albania\u2019s accession, he is preventing any further strengthening of the EU\u2019s Central and East European bloc, which could overbalance France\u2019s voice in the European Council.<\/p>\n

More broadly, Macron\u2019s France finds itself in a geopolitical vacuum that has been created by Brexit in the United Kingdom, the rise of populists and nationalists in Italy, Catalonian secessionism in Spain and the consolidation of illiberal regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The only reliable players left on the field are Germany and insular northern countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark. Because a Le Pen victory over Macron would strike a death blow to the EU itself, Germany has tolerated the French president\u2019s ambitious initiatives. But its patience is wearing thin.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, the rules of the game in Europe are still set by Germany\u2014and more specifically by Chancellor Angela Merkel. The problem is that Germany is too small to lead Europe on its own, yet too big not<\/em> to do so. That\u2019s why Macron would push through his choice of candidate for the head of the European Commission only when he found a German. Germany couldn\u2019t force through its own candidate, so it had to accept Macron\u2019s German for the job (now filled by Ursula von der Leyen, a former defence minister).<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, Macron\u2019s recent behaviour has made things more difficult for the Germans, who want incremental change rather than revolution. His warnings about NATO imply that Germany will need to expand its defence capabilities, for which there\u2019s little support among German voters. If Macron is overly insistent, he could provoke German anger and resistance.<\/p>\n

But Macron, like many others in Europe, has had enough of Germany\u2019s own unilateralism on questions such as whether to admit refugees from Syria and Iraq or whether to ban arms exports to Saudi Arabia. He most likely wants to strike a deal with Merkel\u2019s successor\u2014be it German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer or someone else\u2014on the EU budget, the question of expansion and the role of French firms in Germany\u2019s defence build-up.<\/p>\n

Historically, French diplomacy excels at grand bargains. But under Merkel, Germany has avoided such agreements, preferring the status quo or incremental changes, because it usually wound up paying extra. Macron\u2019s hyperactive diplomacy exposes a post-imperial inferiority complex, the symptoms of which\u2014whether Brexit or Putinism\u2014are impeding Europe\u2019s normalisation and hampering the EU\u2019s mobilisation to counterbalance China and the United States. Macron\u2019s rhetoric suggests that he wants to fight these symptoms. But his recent actions seem to be reproducing them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You can be talented, handsome, rhetorically skilled and politically brave, and yet suffer for it. In the long run, prudence and restraint are crucial ingredients of successful leadership, and it is precisely those two qualities …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":646,"featured_media":52325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1905,325,291,261],"class_list":["post-52321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-emmanuel-macron","tag-europe","tag-france","tag-nato"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHas Macron gone too far? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has Macron gone too far? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"You can be talented, handsome, rhetorically skilled and politically brave, and yet suffer for it. In the long run, prudence and restraint are crucial ingredients of successful leadership, and it is precisely those two qualities ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-12-04T00:00:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-12-03T23:38:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-1186267721.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Slawomir Sierakowski\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Slawomir Sierakowski\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-1186267721.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-1186267721.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 03: France's President Emmanuel Macron reacts as he arrives at 10 Downing Street on December 3, 2019 in London, England. France and the UK signed the Treaty of Dunkirk in 1947 in the aftermath of WW2 cementing a mutual alliance in the event of an attack by Germany or the Soviet Union. The Benelux countries joined the Treaty and in April 1949 expanded further to include North America and Canada followed by Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. This new military alliance became the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The organisation grew with Greece and Turkey becoming members and a re-armed West Germany was permitted in 1955. This encouraged the creation of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact delineating the two sides of the Cold War. This year marks the 70th anniversary of NATO. (Photo by Daniel Leal-Olivas - WPA Pool\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/\",\"name\":\"Has Macron gone too far? | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-04T00:00:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-12-03T23:38:50+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87f14504404eaf494637e00cc84fa855\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Has Macron gone too far?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87f14504404eaf494637e00cc84fa855\",\"name\":\"Slawomir Sierakowski\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b0e3003007c3fd78a2a2e6fbcda9cc7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b0e3003007c3fd78a2a2e6fbcda9cc7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Slawomir Sierakowski\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/slawomir-sierakowski\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Has Macron gone too far? | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Has Macron gone too far? | The Strategist","og_description":"You can be talented, handsome, rhetorically skilled and politically brave, and yet suffer for it. In the long run, prudence and restraint are crucial ingredients of successful leadership, and it is precisely those two qualities ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-12-04T00:00:24+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-12-03T23:38:50+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":683,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-1186267721.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Slawomir Sierakowski","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Slawomir Sierakowski","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-1186267721.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-1186267721.jpg","width":1024,"height":683,"caption":"LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 03: France's President Emmanuel Macron reacts as he arrives at 10 Downing Street on December 3, 2019 in London, England. France and the UK signed the Treaty of Dunkirk in 1947 in the aftermath of WW2 cementing a mutual alliance in the event of an attack by Germany or the Soviet Union. The Benelux countries joined the Treaty and in April 1949 expanded further to include North America and Canada followed by Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. This new military alliance became the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The organisation grew with Greece and Turkey becoming members and a re-armed West Germany was permitted in 1955. This encouraged the creation of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact delineating the two sides of the Cold War. This year marks the 70th anniversary of NATO. (Photo by Daniel Leal-Olivas - WPA Pool\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/","name":"Has Macron gone too far? | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-12-04T00:00:24+00:00","dateModified":"2019-12-03T23:38:50+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87f14504404eaf494637e00cc84fa855"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/has-macron-gone-too-far\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Has Macron gone too far?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/87f14504404eaf494637e00cc84fa855","name":"Slawomir Sierakowski","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b0e3003007c3fd78a2a2e6fbcda9cc7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b0e3003007c3fd78a2a2e6fbcda9cc7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Slawomir Sierakowski"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/slawomir-sierakowski\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52321"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/646"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52321"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52323,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52321\/revisions\/52323"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}