{"id":52455,"date":"2019-12-11T06:00:38","date_gmt":"2019-12-10T19:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=52455"},"modified":"2019-12-11T09:17:46","modified_gmt":"2019-12-10T22:17:46","slug":"defence-should-accelerate-australias-adoption-of-autonomous-systems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/defence-should-accelerate-australias-adoption-of-autonomous-systems\/","title":{"rendered":"Defence should accelerate Australia\u2019s adoption of autonomous systems"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

It\u2019s commonplace in commentary about the Australian Defence Force to say that its force structure looks today a lot like it did 30, 40 or 50 years ago. The structure remains largely the same, while the systems in it are replaced with newer, better, often larger, and always more expensive versions of the old systems. While Defence likes to talk about \u2018effects\u2019, when it comes to buying actual equipment, it defaults to getting something that looks a lot like what it\u2019s familiar with.<\/p>\n

When we combine this deep-seated institutional trait with the very human tendency to judge the performance of machines more harshly than that of humans, it\u2019s not surprising that Defence\u2019s adoption of autonomous systems has been incremental, to use a polite term, or slow, to use another one.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s despite the widespread recognition of the benefits that autonomous weapons systems can potentially<\/em> provide to militaries have been widely recognised. They include removing humans from high-threat environments, breaking out of manned platforms\u2019 vicious cost cycle, achieving greater mass on the battlefield, exploiting asymmetric advantages, leveraging the civil sector\u2019s massive research and development spending on autonomous systems, and accelerating capability development timelines.<\/p>\n

In a new ASPI report<\/a> I suggest ways to accelerate the adoption of autonomous systems in the ADF and turn the potential benefits into actual ones.<\/p>\n

At its core, it\u2019s an issue of trust. Defence has been gradually improving its members\u2019 trust in autonomous systems, both individually and collectively. It\u2019s also been making moderate investments in improving autonomous technologies so that they are more trustworthy. But others are moving much faster, including potential state and non-state adversaries, and the civilian world.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also a matter of reconsidering how we view risk. While it\u2019s easy to see risk in autonomous systems, we need to recognise that manned platforms can also present significant capability risk; if they can\u2019t protect their precious human cargo on an increasingly dangerous battlefield, we won\u2019t deploy them, rendering the investment in them worthless. Defence\u2019s investment strategy of doubling-down on manned platforms is itself high risk.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time to do more. Securing greater investment in autonomous systems will be difficult, considering Defence\u2019s continued heavy investment in traditional platforms, which is unlikely to be moderated in the near term. However, autonomous systems offer the potential for Defence to hedge its capability risk, particularly if they can come at reduced cost and relieve pressure on Defence\u2019s investment program.<\/p>\n

How can Defence jump-start its approach to autonomous systems? One way to achieve this is to not replace manned platforms with other manned platforms where there\u2019s no compelling need to do so. This frees up funding not only for autonomous systems but for other emerging priorities. Another way is to not seek to replace manned platforms with an autonomous solution that essentially does the same job. Rather, Defence could think disruptively and explore new roles that autonomous systems can perform that are quite different from those of current manned platforms.<\/p>\n

The Tiger armed reconnaissance helicopter (ARH) provides a clear case in which it\u2019s possible for Defence to avoid an expensive \u2018like for like\u2019 replacement of a manned platform. While the Tiger has had a troubled history, the army has publicly stated that it now provides a high level of capability, including operating from the navy\u2019s landing helicopter docks in amphibious roles. Defence\u2019s Integrated Investment Program is also delivering systems like the Reaper armed unmanned aerial vehicle and long-range rocket systems that provide many of the effects sought from an ARH.<\/p>\n

Therefore, this is an area where Defence can experiment safely with the accelerated adoption of autonomous systems without extreme capability risk should that experiment not succeed. It\u2019s an ideal area to explore human\u2013machine teaming. It\u2019s also an area where accelerated experimentation can produce positive lessons for Defence more broadly.<\/p>\n

As part of the strategic and capability review that Defence is currently conducting, it should avoid investment of the roughly $3\u00a0billion needed to acquire a new ARH. Rather, it should keep the Tiger in service while investing around $1\u00a0billion of the funds saved in the development and acquisition of autonomous systems.<\/p>\n

While these systems could deliver some of the effects sought from an ARH, Defence shouldn\u2019t seek primarily to develop an unmanned version of an ARH. Instead, it should actively explore in an open-ended way the disruptive potential of armed unmanned and autonomous systems for battlefield aviation.<\/p>\n

Such systems would initially complement the Tiger to create greater effects than the Tiger can generate alone. Eventually, this pathway would allow Defence to remove the Tiger and its human crews from the battlespace.<\/p>\n

To accelerate this development, Defence could establish an interdisciplinary team, including representatives from a broad range of the army\u2019s trades as well as industry and academia, whose sole function would be to identify and experiment with disruptive autonomous innovations in battlefield aviation. By sitting outside Defence\u2019s day-to-day business, they would have the ability to think disruptively\u2014to the point of replacing the business as usual model.<\/p>\n

And to promote technological innovation more broadly, around $850 million of the savings realised by not replacing Tiger with a manned ARH could be dedicated to doubling Defence\u2019s innovation funds. Currently they represent less than 0.5% of Defence\u2019s funding. Doubling them (at no net cost) would send a clear signal that Defence sees itself as a leader in technological innovation.<\/p>\n

This approach would offer greater benefits to both the ADF and Australian defence industry than acquisition of a new, manned off-the-shelf ARH and jump-start the transition to an increasingly autonomous future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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