{"id":52629,"date":"2019-12-19T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2019-12-19T00:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=52629"},"modified":"2019-12-19T10:05:06","modified_gmt":"2019-12-18T23:05:06","slug":"the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/","title":{"rendered":"The perils of the Cold War hangover"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

The year 2014 was just as significant as 1914. Russia\u2019s annexation of the Crimean peninsula elicited a weak response from the West and highlighted a larger strategic problem: the erosion of the liberal-democratic world order. The West failed to rise to the challenge of Russian resurgence and, since 2014, has all but shrugged at the notion that it must act to sustain the rules-based global order we created after World War II.<\/p>\n

Paul Dibb\u2019s recent ASPI report<\/a> is an important addition to a rather limp debate on great-power warfare and the role of the Sino-Russian relationship in Australia\u2019s strategic outlook. Dibb outlines the ways in which Russia and China are profiting from the West\u2019s strategic disarray. He points to China in the South China Sea and Russia in Crimea as examples of coercion by Beijing and Moscow in their \u2018natural sphere[s] of influence\u2019.<\/p>\n

These ventures are symptomatic of a bigger challenge than just Western (specifically, US) weakness. To our disadvantage, strategists in the West continue to focus on Russian and Chinese advances and obsess over tracking their parallels with the Cold War era.<\/p>\n

But a more productive relationship between Russia and the West is possible, as history shows. Such a relationship will only ever be based on matters of mutual interest, so we shouldn\u2019t hold our breath for a democratic Russia. Russia, for its part, hasn\u2019t turned away from its traditional focus on Europe, and President Vladimir Putin\u2019s \u2018idea of Russian exceptionalism<\/a>, of Russia\u2019s unique Eurasian identity\u2019 is not inherently anti-Western.<\/p>\n

The Eurasian narrative in Russia predates soured Russia\u2013West ties. Europe is vital to Russia\u2019s energy industry as by far its largest export market for natural gas.<\/p>\n

Dibb argues we should expect some (more) risk-taking behaviour from Putin\u2019s Russia, noting \u2018Russia might consider using military force in such places as Moldova and Kazakhstan\u2019. While some grievances exist, both states are active participants of Russian-led collective security and economic blocs.<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan is one of the six members of the \u2018Eurasian NATO\u2019\u2014the Collective Security Treaty Organization<\/a>. Any Russian aggression against Kazakhstan would be in contravention of Article 4 of the CSTO treaty that Moscow itself crafted. Putin has also applied valuable lessons learned from the EU experiment in forming the Eurasian Economic Union. Kazakhstan is a member of the EEU, and Moldova is seeking to integrate into the union and was the EEU\u2019s first observer state. Moscow needs these institutions to work, so self-inflicted damage is unlikely.<\/p>\n

This brings us to the question of whether a Russia\u2013China military bloc will \u2018inevitably affect the international security order, including by challenging the system of US-centred alliances in the Asia\u2013Pacific and Europe\u2019. Perhaps. But the international system is already shifting away from US-centred alliances without the help of an accord between Beijing and Moscow. In the West we have been complacent in protecting liberal democracy from wear and tear.<\/p>\n

The argument that Russia and China are united in their disdain for the West is contestable. These authoritarian powers have actually benefited from the Western-led processes of globalisation and market liberalisation. Moscow and Beijing seek respect, notice and recognition from the West that they\u2019re legitimate poles of power in a multipolar system.<\/p>\n

Dibb\u2019s argument that Russia and China are developing an \u2018ever-closer friendship of convenience\u2019 is apt. But there\u2019s potential for a falling out. The relationship between Russia and China will be convenient until it is not. Dibb argues that Moscow and Beijing might take risks to \u2018regain lost territories\u2019. What, then, of the possibility that China will seek to regain lost territory in the Russian far east?<\/p>\n

A final problematic assumption is that the West is still united as a bloc and that the very concept is still of use. The notion of \u2018the West versus the rest\u2019 is fitting for historical black-and-white assessments of the international environment. However, the contemporary landscape is not so neatly divided. The use of \u2018grey zone\u2019 tactics means a new framework for pondering our security outlook is needed.<\/p>\n

And while it\u2019s true that US dominance and power-projection capacities are in relative decline, both Moscow and Beijing harbour long-term fragilities at home. Demographically, they\u2019re both in serious trouble. China will likely get old before it gets rich, and therefore its time at the \u2018top\u2019 strategically might be relatively short lived. Russia has similar population challenges, magnified by an increasing brain drain of migration out of the country.<\/p>\n

The established international system is eroding and the risk of conflict may have increased. However, we must be careful not to miss the forest for the trees. Russia\u2013China ties are closer than ever before and, yes, we should expect the two states to take advantage of the West\u2019s strategic and ideological disarray.<\/p>\n

But our response will be short sighted if it focuses on Russia and China alone, for Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping personify the profound transformation towards a multipolar order. There\u2019s still time to reserve a seat at the leadership table for Western liberal democracy in this future international system.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The year 2014 was just as significant as 1914. Russia\u2019s annexation of the Crimean peninsula elicited a weak response from the West and highlighted a larger strategic problem: the erosion of the liberal-democratic world order. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":952,"featured_media":52633,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,772,163,1932],"class_list":["post-52629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-geopolitics","tag-russia","tag-the-west"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe perils of the Cold War hangover | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The perils of the Cold War hangover | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The year 2014 was just as significant as 1914. Russia\u2019s annexation of the Crimean peninsula elicited a weak response from the West and highlighted a larger strategic problem: the erosion of the liberal-democratic world order. ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-12-19T00:00:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-12-18T23:05:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-492559129.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"731\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elizabeth Buchanan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Elizabeth Buchanan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-492559129.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-492559129.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":731,\"caption\":\"SHANGHAI, CHINA - MAY 21: President of Russia Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast with vodka during a signing ceremony on May 21, 2014 in Shanghai, China. Russia and China signed a thirty-year contract for supply of gas. (Photo by Sasha Mordovets\/Getty Images)\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/\",\"name\":\"The perils of the Cold War hangover | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-19T00:00:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-12-18T23:05:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/177b4e0204362e479ddab5724203a124\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The perils of the Cold War hangover\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/177b4e0204362e479ddab5724203a124\",\"name\":\"Elizabeth Buchanan\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ed22b2c6d5aeb24d0951ec593b710f80?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ed22b2c6d5aeb24d0951ec593b710f80?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Elizabeth Buchanan\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/elizabeth-buchanan\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The perils of the Cold War hangover | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The perils of the Cold War hangover | The Strategist","og_description":"The year 2014 was just as significant as 1914. Russia\u2019s annexation of the Crimean peninsula elicited a weak response from the West and highlighted a larger strategic problem: the erosion of the liberal-democratic world order. ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2019-12-19T00:00:26+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-12-18T23:05:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":731,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-492559129.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Elizabeth Buchanan","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Elizabeth Buchanan","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-492559129.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/GettyImages-492559129.jpg","width":1024,"height":731,"caption":"SHANGHAI, CHINA - MAY 21: President of Russia Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast with vodka during a signing ceremony on May 21, 2014 in Shanghai, China. Russia and China signed a thirty-year contract for supply of gas. (Photo by Sasha Mordovets\/Getty Images)"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/","name":"The perils of the Cold War hangover | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2019-12-19T00:00:26+00:00","dateModified":"2019-12-18T23:05:06+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/177b4e0204362e479ddab5724203a124"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-perils-of-the-cold-war-hangover\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The perils of the Cold War hangover"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/177b4e0204362e479ddab5724203a124","name":"Elizabeth Buchanan","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ed22b2c6d5aeb24d0951ec593b710f80?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ed22b2c6d5aeb24d0951ec593b710f80?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Elizabeth Buchanan"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/elizabeth-buchanan\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52629"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/952"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52629"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52629\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52632,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52629\/revisions\/52632"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}