{"id":52737,"date":"2019-12-23T13:40:30","date_gmt":"2019-12-23T02:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=52737"},"modified":"2019-12-23T13:40:30","modified_gmt":"2019-12-23T02:40:30","slug":"the-illusion-of-a-rules-based-global-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-illusion-of-a-rules-based-global-order\/","title":{"rendered":"The illusion of a rules-based global order"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

When the Cold War ended, many pundits anticipated a new era in which geoeconomics would determine geopolitics. As economic integration progressed, they predicted, the rules-based order would take root globally. Countries would comply with international law or incur high costs.<\/p>\n

Today, such optimism looks more than a little naive. Even as the international legal system has ostensibly grown increasingly robust\u2014underpinned, for example, by United Nations conventions, global accords like the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and the International Criminal Court\u2014the rule of force has continued to trump the rule of law. Perhaps no country has taken more advantage of this state of affairs than China.<\/p>\n

Consider China\u2019s dam projects in the Mekong River, which flows from the Chinese-controlled Tibetan Plateau to the South China Sea, through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. By building 11 mega-dams near the border of the Tibetan Plateau, just before the river crosses into Southeast Asia, China has irreparably damaged the river system and wreaked broader environmental havoc<\/a>, including saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta that has caused the delta to retreat.<\/p>\n

Today, the Mekong is running at its lowest level<\/a> in 100 years, and droughts are intensifying in downriver countries. This gives China powerful leverage over its neighbours. And yet China has faced no consequences for its weaponisation of the Mekong\u2019s waters<\/a>. It should thus be no surprise that the country is building or planning at least eight more mega-dams on the river.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s actions in the South China Sea may be even more brazen. This month marks the sixth anniversary of the country\u2019s launch of a massive land-reclamation program in the highly strategic corridor, which connects the Indian and Pacific oceans. By constructing and militarising artificial islands, China has redrawn<\/a> the region\u2019s geopolitical map without firing a shot\u2014or incurring any international costs.<\/p>\n

In July 2016, an international arbitral tribunal set up by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that China\u2019s territorial claims in the South China Sea lacked legitimacy<\/a> under international law. But China\u2019s leaders simply disregarded the ruling, calling<\/a> it a \u2018farce\u2019. Unless something changes, the US-led plan<\/a> to establish a \u2018free and open Indo-Pacific\u2019 will remain little more than a paper vision.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s open contempt for the tribunal\u2019s ruling stood in sharp contrast with India\u2019s response to a 2014 ruling awarding Bangladesh<\/a> nearly 80% of 25,602 square kilometres of disputed territory in the Bay of Bengal. Although the decision was split (unlike the South China Sea tribunal\u2019s unanimous verdict) and included obvious flaws\u2014it left a sizeable \u2018grey area\u2019 in the bay\u2014India accepted it readily.<\/p>\n

In fact, between 2013 and 2016\u2014while the Philippines-initiated proceedings on China\u2019s claims in the South China Sea were underway\u2014three different tribunals ruled against India in disputes with Bangladesh, Italy and Pakistan. India complied with all of them.<\/p>\n

The implication is clear: for large and influential countries, respecting the rules-based order is a choice\u2014one that China, with its regime\u2019s particular character, is unwilling to make. Against this background, Vietnam\u2019s possible legal action<\/a> on its own territorial disputes with China\u2014which has been interfering<\/a> in Vietnam\u2019s longstanding oil and gas activities within its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea\u2014is unlikely to amount to much. Vietnam knows that China will ignore any ruling against it and use its trade leverage to punish its less powerful neighbour.<\/p>\n

That is why an enforcement mechanism for international law is so badly needed. Disputes between states will always arise. Peace demands mechanisms for resolving them fairly and effectively, and reinforcing respect for existing frontiers.<\/p>\n

Yet such a mechanism seems unlikely to emerge anytime soon. After all, China isn\u2019t alone in violating international law with impunity: its fellow permanent members of the UN Security Council\u2014France, Russia, the UK and the US\u2014have all done so. These are the very countries that the UN charter<\/a> entrusted with upholding international peace and security.<\/p>\n

Nowadays, international law is powerful against the powerless, and powerless against the powerful. Despite tectonic shifts in the economy, geopolitics and the environment, this seems set to remain true, with the mightiest states using international law to impose their will on their weaker counterparts, while ignoring it themselves. As long as this is true, a rules-based global order will remain a fig leaf for the forcible pursuit of national interests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When the Cold War ended, many pundits anticipated a new era in which geoeconomics would determine geopolitics. As economic integration progressed, they predicted, the rules-based order would take root globally. Countries would comply with international …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":482,"featured_media":52738,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,1650,471,92],"class_list":["post-52737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-china","tag-rules-based-order","tag-south-china-sea","tag-united-nations"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe illusion of a rules-based global order | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-illusion-of-a-rules-based-global-order\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The illusion of a rules-based global order | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When the Cold War ended, many pundits anticipated a new era in which geoeconomics would determine geopolitics. 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