{"id":52909,"date":"2020-01-14T15:14:29","date_gmt":"2020-01-14T04:14:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=52909"},"modified":"2020-10-15T10:20:51","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T23:20:51","slug":"election-result-shows-taiwan-is-out-of-chinas-grasp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/election-result-shows-taiwan-is-out-of-chinas-grasp\/","title":{"rendered":"Election result shows Taiwan is out of China\u2019s grasp"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Voters in Taiwan have demonstrated that conciliation with Beijing is no longer a useful electoral strategy. Future presidential candidates, from both sides of Taiwan\u2019s political divide, will have to prove that they can stand up for Taiwan against China. That, as much as incumbent Tsai Ing-wen\u2019s overwhelming victory, may be the big message out of Saturday\u2019s poll.<\/p>\n

Winning just over 57% of the vote<\/a>, Tsai levelled a stunning defeat on her rival candidate Han Kuo-yu\u2014who could convince only one in four voters that he was the right person for the job.<\/p>\n

At face value, it was a landslide victory for Tsai and her independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as well as a major blow to the rival Kuomintang (KMT, also known as the Chinese Nationalist Party), which adheres more closely to Beijing\u2019s ideology. However, a deeper look at the results reveals a different story.<\/p>\n

Saturday\u2019s election was not only for the presidency, but for Taiwan\u2019s parliament, the Legislative Yuan. The DPP secured 61 seats in the legislature, picking up 34.0% of the vote. The KMT won 38 seats, with 33.4% of the vote. Put differently<\/a>, the DPP won more seats than the KMT, but the KMT still got a sizeable proportion of votes.<\/p>\n

The KMT\u2019s surprising vote share was despite the party causing controversy over the candidates it put forward for election to the Legislative Yuan. On what\u2019s colloquially known as the \u2018party list\u2019, the KMT had nominated candidates<\/a> that many saw as unusually pro-Beijing (for example, one was a former military officer who had attended an event<\/a> organised by the Chinese Communist Party). That, combined with mudslinging<\/a> from the KMT\u2019s deputy secretary-general, brought the party\u2019s integrity into question.<\/p>\n

Despite poor judgement from its senior leadership, the KMT managed to do reasonably well in the Legislative Yuan. With nearly 40 seats, it will remain a credible opposition in a DPP-controlled legislature.<\/p>\n

In this respect, Saturday\u2019s election wasn\u2019t so much a resounding victory for the DPP and defeat for the KMT as it was an endorsement of Tsai Ing-wen and a rebuke of Han Kuo-yu. The KMT remains a potent political force that could rebrand itself to win future elections in Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Explaining how the KMT could win future elections requires an understanding of why Tsai won on Saturday. Unlike most Taiwanese elections, events in Hong Kong meant that 2020\u2019s poll was a referendum<\/a>\u00a0on how to maintain Taiwan\u2019s sovereignty and hard-won democracy. Tsai won because she proved herself to be a steady hand on relations with China and demonstrated her resolve when faced with Beijing\u2019s threats of coercion. Han lost because he appeared erratic and his views on \u2018unification\u2019 with Beijing seemed dangerously old hat. The problem<\/a> was not the KMT, but the candidate it put forward.<\/p>\n

However, the KMT can\u2019t win future elections simply by knowing why it lost on Saturday; it also needs to know why it has won in the past. While there are useful precedents<\/a> from the KMT\u2019s history under Lee Teng-hui, the most important victory for the KMT was its most recent win in November 2018\u2019s local elections.<\/p>\n

That election was fought largely on domestic issues<\/a> such as the cost of living and labour reform, and the KMT offered a more conservative alternative to the DPP\u2019s style of progressive politics. For example, the KMT\u2019s candidate for mayor of Taipei, Ting Shou-chung, branded himself as \u2018boring but useful<\/a>\u2019 and nearly beat<\/a> a strong incumbent in Ko Wen-je. Rebranding itself as a trustworthy, conservative voice that\u2019s still able to attract floating voters could be one way for the KMT to regain the upper hand.<\/p>\n

Given the damage done to its reputation over this election season, the KMT will need time for any makeover to be successful. The party could keep its head down in opposition and focus on grooming a candidate who is completely different to Han and capable of winning the next presidential election in 2024. There are a few people who could play that role.<\/p>\n

One such politician is the mayor of New Taipei City, Hou You-yi<\/a>. Hou was a career police officer who in 2006 became the youngest person to be appointed to head Taiwan\u2019s National Police Agency<\/a>. Once courted by the DPP, Hou is yet to publicly affirm Beijing\u2019s so-called 1992 consensus that Taiwan and the mainland form \u2018one China\u2019. Should Hou distinguish himself as a good manager who\u2019s willing to stand up for Taiwan\u2019s autonomy, he may prove to be a viable candidate for the KMT.<\/p>\n

Of course, a lot can happen in four years. Jason Hsu<\/a> is another person to watch. As a co-founder of TEDx Taipei, Hsu is one of the KMT\u2019s few young politicians who might be able to appeal to Taiwan\u2019s youth. Whoever becomes KMT leader going into the next presidential poll in 2024, he or she will need to assure the public that Taiwan\u2019s sovereignty is an issue on which there will be no compromise.<\/p>\n

The KMT will remain significant in Taiwanese politics only if it stands up for Taiwan against China. To fight and win elections, the party must demonstrate its willingness to defend Taiwan\u2019s autonomy whatever the cost may be. That likely means selecting a leader who does not recognise Beijing\u2019s \u20181992 consensus\u2019 and is willing to advocate for Taiwan\u2019s sovereignty around the globe.<\/p>\n

A KMT that can transform itself into a party for Taiwan and cease being a party for Chinese nationalism<\/a> will be the ultimate sign of maturity in Taiwanese democracy. For Beijing, however, such a KMT would represent its most consequential defeat. Short of war, China may have just permanently lost Taiwan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Voters in Taiwan have demonstrated that conciliation with Beijing is no longer a useful electoral strategy. Future presidential candidates, from both sides of Taiwan\u2019s political divide, will have to prove that they can stand up …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":592,"featured_media":52911,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2885],"class_list":["post-52909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-indo-pacific-election-pulse-2020"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nElection result shows Taiwan is out of China\u2019s grasp | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/election-result-shows-taiwan-is-out-of-chinas-grasp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Election result shows Taiwan is out of China\u2019s grasp | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Voters in Taiwan have demonstrated that conciliation with Beijing is no longer a useful electoral strategy. 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