{"id":53344,"date":"2020-02-05T13:39:19","date_gmt":"2020-02-05T02:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=53344"},"modified":"2020-10-15T10:24:31","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T23:24:31","slug":"what-tsais-re-election-in-taiwan-means-for-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-tsais-re-election-in-taiwan-means-for-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"What Tsai\u2019s re-election in Taiwan means for Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Given the landslide election victory<\/a> of President Tsai Ing-wen, and the likelihood that Beijing will intensify tactics to isolate Taiwan and pressure its government, Australia should consider stepping up its support for Taiwan\u2019s de facto independent status in the interests of cross-strait stability and regional security.<\/p>\n

Of central importance are the manner of the election wins and the emphatic show of support by the Taiwanese electorate for Tsai and the policies of her Democratic Progressive Party. For the Chinese party-state, an equivocal result would have offered more convincing justification for its belief that, despite a \u2018temporary counter-current<\/a>\u2019, Taiwan was on a path to unification. Such an outcome would also have created fresh opportunities for the Chinese Communist Party to exploit political and social divisions by cultivating links with the business and religious communities and with specific figures in Taiwan\u2019s opposition Kuomintang.<\/p>\n

Instead, the result was a demonstration of political unanimity by the people of Taiwan. It made visible what has been obvious to close observers for decades\u2014that Taiwan is not moving towards unification with the People\u2019s Republic of China. At the most fundamental level, the election results demonstrate Taiwan\u2019s political sovereignty through the practice of democracy.<\/p>\n

How Tsai will use her strong mandate to manoeuvre between the pressure points likely to be applied by Beijing will matter a great deal for the region, and for Australia\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy. That\u2019s especially so if China intensifies its pressure on Taiwan.<\/p>\n

The hardening of party policies under CCP Chairman Xi Jinping\u2014notably, his rejection of the degree of pragmatism and flexibility of his predecessor Hu Jintao\u2014and the US determination to counter Beijing\u2019s regional ambitions increase Taiwan\u2019s vulnerability.<\/p>\n

The CCP\u2019s leaders strongly believe that unification with Taiwan is the expression, in its distinctive Marxist sense, of the inevitable trajectory of history towards national rejuvenation and the realisation of socialism in the \u2018New China\u2019. For Beijing, that involves a non-negotiable offer to Taiwan of unification under the one country, two systems formula as a stage towards that ultimate goal.<\/p>\n

So foundational are these beliefs to the party that any rethink of policy on Taiwan is highly unlikely. Beijing will continue its tactics of diplomatic isolation, military threats, economic inducements and domestic interference.<\/p>\n

Canberra has no capacity to initiate systemic change or ideological reform in the PRC and it has pragmatically pursued a relationship with Taiwan over a range of trade, cultural and security links that is overshadowed by Canberra\u2019s much larger relationship with Beijing. This was demonstrated, for example, when negotiations on a free trade agreement with Taiwan stalled in the face of Beijing\u2019s objections.<\/p>\n

However, the election shows that Australia needs to take seriously the gap between Taiwan\u2019s aspiration for a democratic political future and the destiny envisioned for it by the CCP.<\/p>\n

While avoiding a cross-strait military conflict must always be Australia\u2019s goal, the opposite of war is not \u2018peaceful reunification\u2019. The election result highlights the reality that it\u2019s impossible for Taiwan to become part of the PRC without destabilising the region, the Taiwan Strait, and ultimately China itself.<\/p>\n

So, in the interests of peace and security, Australia must help limit Taiwan\u2019s diplomatic isolation by using high-level contacts; opposing Beijing\u2019s military threats; strengthening economic, cultural and education links; and collaborating on shared threats to democratic practices.<\/p>\n

The number of visits to Taiwan by properly briefed politicians and officials should be increased. Canberra should also work actively with state and local governments to support contact with Taiwan and build policy capacity at all levels.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s Pacific step-up<\/a> is an important avenue for collaboration. Despite Taipei\u2019s shrinking number of allies, Taiwan is a long-term Pacific actor with a substantial footprint in the region. It offers Canberra opportunities to partner in developing quality infrastructure and governance.<\/p>\n

Beyond the immediate region, both Taiwan and Australia have met Beijing\u2019s sharp power and foreign influence operations in their domestic policymaking and have shared experiences of cyber threats identified as originating in the PRC.<\/p>\n

In an era of borderless challenges such as climate change and the unfolding coronavirus crisis, Australia\u2019s interests will be best served by an active and high-level relationship with Taiwan that modulates concern for Beijing\u2019s sensitivities.<\/p>\n

Despite these drivers of policy, Taiwan remains a significant challenge for Australia<\/a>. The prospect that a US military defence<\/a> of Taiwan could involve an Australian military commitment remains in the background of Australia\u2019s policy calculus. That\u2019s complicated by the extent to which the US has become a less reliable partner in the region. A second term for Donald Trump seems likely, but even if the administration changes, the positions of all of the Democratic contenders point to an inward-looking US government without a clear vision of global power.<\/p>\n

Under these evolving conditions, Australia\u2019s policy towards Taiwan needs to be grounded in a proper understanding of the histories and politics of both China and Taiwan and a willingness to identify specific instances when the traditional strong emphasis on trade with China, and on the US alliance, doesn\u2019t serve Australia\u2019s national interests.<\/p>\n

In her post-election comments to the international community, Tsai said Taiwan should be seen as \u2018a partner, not an issue\u2019. Australia doesn\u2019t take sides in the democratic choices of the Taiwanese people, but it can recognise them in a values-based foreign policy, as prescribed in the 2017 white paper. To maintain Australia\u2019s own security and prosperity, we would do well to take seriously the opportunity offered by a closer bilateral partnership and find ways to realise it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Given the landslide election victory of President Tsai Ing-wen, and the likelihood that Beijing will intensify tactics to isolate Taiwan and pressure its government, Australia should consider stepping up its support for Taiwan\u2019s de facto …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":885,"featured_media":53346,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2885],"class_list":["post-53344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-indo-pacific-election-pulse-2020"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Tsai\u2019s re-election in Taiwan means for Australia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-tsais-re-election-in-taiwan-means-for-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Tsai\u2019s re-election in Taiwan means for Australia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Given the landslide election victory of President Tsai Ing-wen, and the likelihood that Beijing will intensify tactics to isolate Taiwan and pressure its government, Australia should consider stepping up its support for Taiwan\u2019s de facto ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-tsais-re-election-in-taiwan-means-for-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-05T02:39:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-10-14T23:24:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/GettyImages-1192544909.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mark Harrison\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mark Harrison\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-tsais-re-election-in-taiwan-means-for-australia\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/GettyImages-1192544909.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/GettyImages-1192544909.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"TAOYUAN, TAIWAN - JANUARY 08: Taiwan's current president and Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen (C), stands on stage as she arrives to speak at a rally ahead of Saturdays presidential election on January 8, 2020 in Taoyuan, Taiwan. 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