{"id":53718,"date":"2020-02-21T13:59:29","date_gmt":"2020-02-21T02:59:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=53718"},"modified":"2020-02-21T13:59:29","modified_gmt":"2020-02-21T02:59:29","slug":"manilas-defence-split-with-washington-will-be-dutertes-lasting-legacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/manilas-defence-split-with-washington-will-be-dutertes-lasting-legacy\/","title":{"rendered":"Manila\u2019s defence split with Washington will be Duterte\u2019s lasting legacy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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On 11\u00a0February 2020, President Rodrigo Duterte gave 180\u00a0days\u2019 notice<\/a> of the termination of the 20-plus-year-old US\u2013Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). The agreement provides the legal framework for US forces to be stationed on rotation in the Philippines. Duterte\u2019s termination of the VFA, which significantly weakens the US\u2013Philippines alliance, will be his lasting legacy.<\/p>\n

The cancellation of the VFA is the most significant downgrading of the US\u2013Philippines alliance since the US military was asked to vacate the Subic Bay naval base in the early 1990s.<\/p>\n

Duterte\u2019s move, which has no support from his foreign and defence ministers, appeared to be a direct response to the US\u2019s revocation of a visa<\/a> for former police chief Ronald dela Rosa, who was the architect of Duterte\u2019s \u2018war on drugs<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Since assuming the presidency, Duterte has been advocating for a more independent foreign policy, which means \u2018less America, more China\u2019. A couple of weeks after he took office, the Permanent Court of Arbitration<\/a> ruled in favour of Manila in the South China Sea dispute, but he opted to not pursue the matter, effectively nullifying the ruling. His criticism of the US was clear from early on, \u00a0when he insulted<\/a> President Barack Obama for condemning the extra-judicial killings in the war on drugs, and his prejudice against America didn\u2019t abate after Donald Trump took over.<\/p>\n

The abrogation of the VFA will complicate the US military\u2019s access to and presence in the region. Since Washington is now in open competition with China, and Southeast Asia is in the centre of what the Pentagon calls the primary theatre<\/a> of the Indo-Pacific region, this is certainly a blow. Moreover, because of the Philippines\u2019 strategic value, it may also affect American logistics in potential crises in the South China Sea, Taiwan and the East China Sea. On the other hand, it appears to be in line with Trump\u2019s desire for allies to take care of their own security. His immediate reaction to Duterte\u2019s decision was to tell reporters, \u2018I don\u2019t really mind if they would like to do that. It will save a lot of money<\/a>.\u2019<\/p>\n

The VFA termination is a turning point in the military history of a country that has outsourced its defence since World War\u00a0II. Without the VFA, the 1951 US\u2013Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty and the 2014 Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement could become empty shells. It\u2019s no wonder his ministers disapprove.<\/p>\n

The VFA termination will damage the Philippines on multiple levels. There\u2019s nothing wrong with pursuing a more self-reliant defence policy, but Duterte is simply putting all his eggs into China\u2019s basket. In the light of Beijing\u2019s aggressive posture, its military activities around the facilities it has built in the South China Sea, and its frequent incursions into other claimants\u2019 exclusive economic zones, cancelling the VFA will leave the Philippines vulnerable and exposed. It will also make Brunei, Malaysia and especially Vietnam\u2014none of which have similar defence arrangements with the US\u2014more nervous. So, on the strategic level, the termination of the VFA will seriously weaken the US\u2019s deterrence capacity in the region.<\/p>\n

Despite Duterte\u2019s controversial personality and policies, he remains massively popular in his country, And while he may be unconventional in the way he handles relations with the US, he is tapping into a vein of anti-American sentiment among Filipinos. Many remember the 2012 Scarborough Shoal incident, when the Obama administration said that the US wouldn\u2019t \u2018go to war over some rocks\u2019.<\/p>\n

Since taking office in 2016, Duterte has made five visits to Beijing\u2014more than any of his predecessors. He\u2019s been a strong proponent of engaging with China and benefiting economically from those ties. Abrogating the VFA is a manifestation of his acceptance of and submission to Beijing\u2019s dominance in the region.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, Beijing hailed the announcement, which gave it another opportunity to underscore the narrative <\/a>\u00a0that the US is no longer welcome in Southeast Asia. It has been pushing to block any external actors\u2019 involvement in the South China Sea disputes and to limit the issue only to the claimant states.<\/p>\n

Armed Forces of the Philippines\u2019 leaders haven\u2019t welcomed<\/a> the termination. It will interfere with military training, including special forces training, slow down humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions, and complicate the future of US counterterrorism efforts, such as stabilising the situation after Islamic State operations in Marawi<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Australia<\/a> is the only other country to have a VFA (signed in 2007 and ratified in 2012) with the Philippines. Duterte\u2019s announcement doesn\u2019t affect that deal, but a reduced US presence will weaken deterrence against terrorist and insurgent groups, leaving Australia and other regional neighbours less secure.<\/p>\n

The questions that now need to be answered are:<\/p>\n