{"id":53745,"date":"2020-02-24T06:00:38","date_gmt":"2020-02-23T19:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=53745"},"modified":"2020-02-23T15:48:35","modified_gmt":"2020-02-23T04:48:35","slug":"new-normal-for-america-is-new-abnormal-for-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-normal-for-america-is-new-abnormal-for-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"New normal for America is new abnormal for Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"799\" height=\"533\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53747\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/48765672557_d8930a2906_c.jpg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/48765672557_d8930a2906_c.jpg 799w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/48765672557_d8930a2906_c-205x137.jpg 205w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/48765672557_d8930a2906_c-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/48765672557_d8930a2906_c-332x221.jpg 332w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 799px) 100vw, 799px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Australia always frets about the US alliance. Today, fret is becoming frenetic. Even a touch feverish. Fear darkens the fancies.<\/p>\n<p>Donald Trump could do to US alliances what he\u2019s done to US trade policy.<\/p>\n<p>The president\u2019s approach to trade and defence might be America\u2019s new normal. Be frightened by that thought; Canberra is.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/world\/north-america\/this-is-the-modern-rome-joe-hockey-reveals-plans-for-a-future-in-the-us-20200116-p53s0c.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">new normal line<\/a> is offered by Australia\u2019s departing ambassador in Washington, Joe Hockey, in an interview with the <em>Sydney Morning Herald<\/em>: \u2018\u201cWe are not going back,\u201d Hockey said. \u201cAmerica has changed, global commerce has changed, geo-politics has changed and it\u2019s going to have a profound impact on every part of the world.\u201d\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s Hockey on how the new normal has arrived: \u201c\u2018The US has basically torn up the whole multinational framework,\u2019 he said. \u2018Relationships now are overwhelmingly bilateral not multilateral. And I don\u2019t think this is exclusive to the Republicans.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hockey pointed to the positions of Democratic presidential contenders who, while opposing Trump\u2019s abrasive style, share his protectionist trade instincts and resistance to deploying American troops overseas.<\/p>\n<p>So the US turns away from the global trade system it built using its rules, based on its economic model, running on its dollars. There\u2019s a lot there to make a good ally fretful. Especially the thought that even if Trump loses his bid for re-election, he\u2019s already laid out a version of the future.<\/p>\n<p>A Trump-flavoured new normal looks like this:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">America first\u2014the line from Trump\u2019s inauguration that\u2019ll be remembered is, \u2018The American carnage stops right here\u2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">protectionist and mercantilist\u2014the global economy is a zero-sum version of the Hunger Games<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">alliance rejectionist\u2014America wastes trillions to defend others<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">deals trump values\u2014deals, not democracy. Strongmen and dictators, apply here.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A simple equation pushes at Australia: China coming, US going.<\/p>\n<p>In that formula, it\u2019s the US part that takes Canberra towards nightmares. Much Oz discussion of the China challenge is actually about US choices.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve been worrying at the conundrum for more than a decade. Start the big fret clock from the global financial crisis in 2007\u201308. As a for instance, near this day six years ago, I wrote a piece headlined, \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/rising-china-troubled-america-crouching-australia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rising China, troubled America, crouching Australia<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The Oz crouch is more pronounced while Trump is both symptom and cause of US troubles. The crouching image was from the late, great <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-astonishing-david-hale\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">David Hale<\/a> and his 2014 ASPI paper <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/publications\/chinas-new-dream-how-will-australia-and-the-world-cope-with-the-re-emergence-of-china-as-a-great-power\/SR64_China-_Hale.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>China\u2019s new dream: How will Australia and the world cope with the re-emergence of China as a great power?<\/em><\/a> Hale\u2019s vision has arrived.<\/p>\n<p>China has buttered our economic bread for two decades, but the US has baked our security cake <a href=\"http:\/\/john.curtin.edu.au\/pmportal\/text\/00468.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">since 1941<\/a>. One of my tried-and-tested lines is that the biggest threat to our alliance (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/asia-essentials-the-us-chameleon-must-adapt-again\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the US alliance system in Asia<\/a>) is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/the-us-alliance-and-defending-australia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">always posed by the US<\/a>\u2014what Washington demands or fails to deliver.<\/p>\n<p>Australia has quietly balanced the twin fears of entrapment and abandonment, and luxuriated in the comfort of US power.<\/p>\n<p>Once, the only surprise we got from Washington was how they described us when they bothered to mention Oz at all; there are worse things than being thought of as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/when-america-sees-australia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Texas with kangaroos<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Now we fret about which of the dire fates\u2014entrapment or abandonment\u2014is what\u2019s coming over the horizon. And surely, the trap and desertion can\u2019t both happen simultaneously?<\/p>\n<p>In his series <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/re-examining-the-australia-us-alliance-part-1-diverging-strategic-interests\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">re-examining the alliance<\/a>, Andrew Carr\u2019s starting point is that Oz\u2013US strategic interests are diverging. The<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1080\/00396338.2018.1518384\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> ad hoc, weakly institutionalised form<\/a> of the alliance has served both sides well for seven decades, Carr writes, but the old model is no longer fit for purpose. He notes Canberra\u2019s fervent wish and the orthodoxy of institutional Washington: the alliance is not at risk. Times change, though, and the political compact has to adjust:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>[F]or all the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailytelegraph.com.au\/news\/nsw\/starstudded-farewell-party-for-ambassador-to-the-us-joe-hockey\/news-story\/bbc5981ffa3a7846e0704648f647a0a4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">celebrations of mateship<\/a>, and the beehive of activity that marks the alliance today, it\u2019s important that we keep a clear eye on the purpose of the relationship. What are we cooperating for? How do our goals overlap or differ? The risk is that in our bid to maintain intimacy we are accepting a deliberate vagueness about our interests. Closeness will matter little if, in a crisis, it becomes clear one party has no interest in meeting the unspoken assumptions of the other.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>Australian Foreign Affairs<\/em> magazine tackles the alliance with the question, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.australianforeignaffairs.com\/essay\/2020\/02\/can-we-trust-america\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u2018Can we trust America?\u2019<\/a> China\u2019s ambition puts US\u2013Australian ties under strain, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.australianforeignaffairs.com\/essay\/2020\/02\/can-we-trust-america\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Michael Wesley<\/a> writes, meaning the US has more need of Australia. Thus, Canberra has the chance\u2014and the obligation\u2014to shape the alliance in our interests: \u2018Instead, we have become less questioning and more compliant with each presidential tweet.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Hanging on to the alliance and hanging with The Donald have become contradictory ends.<\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s continual invoking of loyalty and sacrifice, Wesley notes, \u2018has given the alliance a marriage-like status, in which adherence to our ally\u2019s cause has become a test of national character. We have lost sight of the limited-liability nature of the alliance at a time when this quality is more necessary than ever.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Those who muse on the alliance in both the US and Oz keep reaching for similar-sounding answers about the need for a makeover and a rethink.<\/p>\n<p>US <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em> magazine wants to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2020-02-10\/saving-americas-alliances\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">save the alliances<\/a> as the system that put America on top: \u2018Trump\u2019s ire has been so relentless and damaging that US allies in Asia and Europe now question the United States\u2019 ability to restore itself as a credible security guarantor, even after a different president is in the White House.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Note that bland phrase packed with explosive questions: \u2018credible security guarantor\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The cry to save the alliances comes straight from the heart of institutional Washington, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/outlook\/2019\/12\/03\/trump-obama-state-blob\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">foreign and defence institutions and mindset<\/a> that Barack Obama derided as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ab46ddd8-14e3-11ea-8d73-6303645ac406\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u2018the blob\u2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A single, faint Obama\u2013Trump continuity exists in the way The Donald has squelched the blob. It\u2019s a continuity that points to the new normal.<\/p>\n<p>Canberra embraces the alliance affirmations from official Washington. The blob offers reassurance and continuity and more of what Australia has loved for 70 years.<\/p>\n<p>The new normal coming out of the US, though, ain\u2019t about continuity.<\/p>\n<p>Canberra frets and fears. Rethink and reshape the alliance, by all means, if that\u2019s what\u2019s needed to hang on to it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia always frets about the US alliance. Today, fret is becoming frenetic. Even a touch feverish. Fear darkens the fancies. Donald Trump could do to US alliances what he\u2019s done to US trade policy. The &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":53747,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[40,2047,1428,31],"class_list":["post-53745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-alliance-2","tag-australia-us-relations","tag-donald-trump","tag-united-states","dinkus-the-australia-us-alliance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>New normal for America is new abnormal for Australia | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/new-normal-for-america-is-new-abnormal-for-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New normal for America is new abnormal for Australia | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia always frets about the US alliance. 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