{"id":54090,"date":"2020-03-05T14:44:14","date_gmt":"2020-03-05T03:44:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=54090"},"modified":"2020-03-18T09:08:07","modified_gmt":"2020-03-17T22:08:07","slug":"will-the-coronavirus-topple-chinas-one-party-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-the-coronavirus-topple-chinas-one-party-regime\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the coronavirus topple China\u2019s one-party regime?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

It may seem preposterous to suggest that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, Covid-19, has imperilled the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, especially at a time when the government\u2019s aggressive containment efforts seem to be working. But it would be a mistake to underestimate the political implications of China\u2019s biggest public health crisis in recent history.<\/p>\n

According to a New York Times<\/em> analysis<\/a>, at least 760 million Chinese, or more than half the country\u2019s population, are under varying degrees of residential lockdown. This has had serious individual and aggregate consequences, from a young boy remaining<\/a> home alone for days after witnessing his grandfather\u2019s death to a significant economic slowdown. But it seems to have contributed to a dramatic fall in new infections outside Wuhan, where the outbreak began, to low single digits<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Even as China\u2019s leaders tout their progress in containing the virus, they are showing signs of stress. Like elites in other autocracies, they feel the most politically vulnerable during crises. They know that, when popular fear and frustration is elevated, even minor missteps could cost them dearly and lead to severe challenges to their power.<\/p>\n

And \u2018frustration\u2019 is putting it mildly. The Chinese public is well and truly outraged over the authorities\u2019 early efforts to suppress information about the new virus, including the fact that it can be transmitted among humans. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the uproar over the 7 February announcement that the Wuhan-based doctor Li Wenliang, whom the local authorities accused of \u2018rumour-mongering\u2019 when he attempted to warn his colleagues about the coronavirus back in December, had died<\/a> of it.<\/p>\n

With China\u2019s censorship apparatus temporarily weakened\u2014probably because censors hadn\u2019t received clear instructions on how to handle such stories\u2014even official newspapers printed the news of Li\u2019s death on their front pages. And business leaders, a typically apolitical group, have denounced the conduct of the Wuhan authorities and demanded accountability.<\/p>\n

There is no doubt that the authorities\u2019 initial mishandling of the outbreak is what enabled it to spread so widely, with healthcare professionals\u2014more than 3,000<\/a> of whom have been infected so far\u2014being hit particularly hard. And despite the central government\u2019s attempts to scapegoat local authorities\u2014many health officials in Hubei province have been fired<\/a>\u2014there are likely to be more questions about what Chinese President Xi Jinping knew.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, Xi has been working hard to repair his image as a strong and competent leader. After the central government ordered the lockdown of Wuhan in late January, Xi appointed Premier Li Keqiang to lead the coronavirus taskforce. But the fact that it was Li, not Xi, who went to Wuhan seemed to send the wrong message, as Xi realised in the subsequent days.<\/p>\n

On 3 February, at a Politburo Standing Committee meeting, Xi took an unusually defensive tone in a speech that smacked of damage control<\/a>. While Xi admitted that he had learned of the outbreak before he sounded the alarm, he emphasised his personal role in leading the fight against the virus.<\/p>\n

On 10 February, Xi made a series of public appearances in Beijing, aimed at reinforcing the impression that he is firmly in command. Three days later, he sacked the party chiefs of Hubei province and Wuhan municipality for their inadequate handling of the crisis. And two days after that, in an unprecedented move, the CCP released the full text<\/a> of Xi\u2019s internal Politburo Standing Committee speech.<\/p>\n

Though Xi has apparently regained his aura as a dominant leader\u2014not least thanks to CCP propagandists, who are working overtime to restore his image\u2014the political fallout is likely to be serious. The profound uproar that marked those fleeting moments of relative cyber freedom\u2014the two weeks, from late January through early February, when censors lost their grip on the popular narrative\u2014should be deeply worrying to the party.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the CCP may be highly adept at repressing dissent, but repression is not eradication. Even a momentary lapse can unleash bottled-up anti-regime sentiment. But what might happen to the party\u2019s hold on power if Chinese were able to speak freely for a few months, not just a couple of weeks?<\/p>\n

The most consequential political upshot of the Covid-19 outbreak may well be the erosion of support for the CCP among China\u2019s urban middle class. Not only have their lives been severely disrupted by the epidemic and response, but they have been made acutely aware of just how helpless they are under a regime that prizes secrecy and its own power over public health and welfare.<\/p>\n

In the post\u2013Mao Zedong era, the Chinese people and the CCP have adhered to an implicit social contract: the people tolerate the party\u2019s political monopoly, as long as the party delivers sufficient economic progress and adequate governance. The CCP\u2019s poor handling of the Covid-19 outbreak threatens this tacit pact. In this sense, China\u2019s one-party regime may well be in a more precarious position than it realises.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It may seem preposterous to suggest that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, Covid-19, has imperilled the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, especially at a time when the government\u2019s aggressive containment efforts seem to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":584,"featured_media":54094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1383,52,2658,204],"class_list":["post-54090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-ccp","tag-china","tag-coronavirus","tag-xi-jinping","dinkus-coronavirus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWill the coronavirus topple China\u2019s one-party regime? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-the-coronavirus-topple-chinas-one-party-regime\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the coronavirus topple China\u2019s one-party regime? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It may seem preposterous to suggest that the outbreak of the new coronavirus, Covid-19, has imperilled the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, especially at a time when the government\u2019s aggressive containment efforts seem to ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-the-coronavirus-topple-chinas-one-party-regime\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-05T03:44:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-17T22:08:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/GettyImages-1209442962.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"682\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Minxin Pei\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Minxin Pei\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/will-the-coronavirus-topple-chinas-one-party-regime\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/GettyImages-1209442962.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/GettyImages-1209442962.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":682,\"caption\":\"SHANGHAI, CHINA - FEBRUARY 29: A pedestrian walks by a bus stop screen showing a video clip of of Chinese president Xi Jinping wearing a protective mask on February 29, 2020 in Shanghai, China. 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