{"id":54237,"date":"2020-03-12T11:38:17","date_gmt":"2020-03-12T00:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=54237"},"modified":"2020-03-12T11:38:17","modified_gmt":"2020-03-12T00:38:17","slug":"moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/","title":{"rendered":"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

In the 1959 Alfred Hitchcock thriller North by Northwest<\/em>, the hero (played by Cary Grant) is drawn in a northwesterly direction to the movie\u2019s climax on Mount Rushmore. The movement is inexorable and inevitable. In a pair<\/a> of Strategist<\/em> posts<\/a>, ASPI\u2019s John Coyne implies that there\u2019s a degree of inevitability in the movement of the Australian Defence Force to the north (-west and -east) of the country.<\/p>\n

This northerly movement is predicated on the assumption that \u2018it\u2019s reasonable to conclude that in a future conflict the north of Australia, and more specifically Darwin, could well become the ADF\u2019s forward operating base or a stepping stone to another location in the Pacific or in the first or second island chain\u2019, and that bases in northern Australia \u2018provide important geostrategic advantages to an army striving to own the speed of initiative\u2019.<\/p>\n

Are these statements accurate, and does the northerly impetus have a momentum that it is actually inevitable? Do we need, or want, to go north?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no doubt that the north of Australia provides geographic advantages for the projection of airpower. It\u2019s closer to likely operational areas, meaning less time in transit and more time actually doing the job. Similarly, there are benefits in having army elements stationed forward for defensive purposes and, as argued<\/a> by ASPI\u2019s Peter Jennings, to demonstrate Australia\u2019s resolve to our regional partners.<\/p>\n

Northern Australia is important for Australia\u2019s economic wellbeing and security, and obviously needs to be appropriately protected. Military units in the north provide a measure of deterrence that units in the south simply cannot, as demonstrated by the recent announcement<\/a> to upgrade the Royal Australian Air Force base at Tindal in the Northern Territory.<\/p>\n

For humanitarian activities and for operations short of conflict, there can also be advantages to being positioned forward. A northerly stepping-off point reduces the time to get to potential operational sites if the units being moved, and the units doing the moving, are somewhat co-located. This implies that airlift and\/or sealift elements must also be located in the north in order to achieve the speed of initiative that is being proposed.<\/p>\n

So far, so good.<\/p>\n

However, the central thesis of Coyne\u2019s argument focuses on conflict, and it\u2019s there where the cracks appear.<\/p>\n

First, forward positioning of strategic airlift and sealift capabilities exposes them to far greater risks than they would face with southerly basing. The entire ability of the ADF to respond with the movement of massed troops would rest on the ability to protect the lift capabilities in their northern bases. This implies the need to acquire a level of defensive capability that we currently don\u2019t have.<\/p>\n

And the risks multiply from there.<\/p>\n

Operations to the South Pacific from Darwin require transit of the Torres Strait, a passage that imposes significant operational limitations on naval manoeuvring and screening activities. It can be easily blockaded, using either sea mines or small conventional submarines. Australia\u2019s large naval ships, replete with army personnel and equipment, will be in constrained and constraining waters for significant amounts of time, and thereby highly exposed to air and missile attack.<\/p>\n

Transits to the likely operating areas to the north of Australia from Darwin will mean moving though the Indonesian archipelago, an area ideally suited to the operation of small submarines. The embarked army will be under significant threat during the journey. The risks are magnified if the adversary can establish itself in Papua New Guinea or East Timor. Townsville as the departure point is also bedevilled by the need to transit the Great Barrier Reef through one of a small number of navigable passages. The seaward end of these passages provides a choke point that will require sustained anti-submarine coverage to ensure safe passage. As with any Torres Strait transit, naval units will be constrained until they are in open waters.<\/p>\n

Somewhat counterintuitively, southern locations provide the greatest protection, and the greatest operational flexibility. The choke points are fewer, the water is deeper, and the operational limitations from the departure points are minimal.<\/p>\n

If the army is stationed forward and the lift capabilities are in the south, then, because the lift will have to go to Darwin to collect the troops, all we\u2019re doing is exchanging a situation with manageable risks for one in which the risks have increased significantly and operational flexibility has been eroded.<\/p>\n

Deploying from the south undoubtedly entails increased transit time, but it also brings increased survivability. There\u2019s little \u2018speed of initiative\u2019 when the ability to arrive safely at the point of the operation is compromised, perhaps fatally so.<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s geography has largely been its friend in the past. We need to ensure that we continue to realise the benefits that this geography provides, rather than sacrifice them, and potentially lots more, in an attempt to get closer to the fight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the 1959 Alfred Hitchcock thriller North by Northwest, the hero (played by Cary Grant) is drawn in a northwesterly direction to the movie\u2019s climax on Mount Rushmore. The movement is inexorable and inevitable. In …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":239,"featured_media":54239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[44,235,70,1005],"class_list":["post-54237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australian-defence-force","tag-defence-of-australia","tag-naval-strategy","tag-northern-australia","dinkus-north-of-26-south"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMoving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the 1959 Alfred Hitchcock thriller North by Northwest, the hero (played by Cary Grant) is drawn in a northwesterly direction to the movie\u2019s climax on Mount Rushmore. The movement is inexorable and inevitable. In ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-12T00:38:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/romeo1203.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"535\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Graeme Dunk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Graeme Dunk\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI's analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/romeo1203.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/romeo1203.jpg\",\"width\":800,\"height\":535},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/\",\"name\":\"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force | The Strategist\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-12T00:38:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-03-12T00:38:17+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8c3d02d9201608da417178ebdfec6d5f\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8c3d02d9201608da417178ebdfec6d5f\",\"name\":\"Graeme Dunk\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9d610dcf98bddd9d228242077fa5be69?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9d610dcf98bddd9d228242077fa5be69?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Graeme Dunk\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dunk\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force | The Strategist","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force | The Strategist","og_description":"In the 1959 Alfred Hitchcock thriller North by Northwest, the hero (played by Cary Grant) is drawn in a northwesterly direction to the movie\u2019s climax on Mount Rushmore. The movement is inexorable and inevitable. In ...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/","og_site_name":"The Strategist","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org","article_published_time":"2020-03-12T00:38:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":535,"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/romeo1203.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Graeme Dunk","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@ASPI_org","twitter_site":"@ASPI_org","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Graeme Dunk","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/","name":"The Strategist","description":"ASPI's analysis and commentary site","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-AU"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/romeo1203.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/romeo1203.jpg","width":800,"height":535},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/","url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/","name":"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force | The Strategist","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2020-03-12T00:38:17+00:00","dateModified":"2020-03-12T00:38:17+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8c3d02d9201608da417178ebdfec6d5f"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-AU","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/moving-north-would-compromise-the-australian-defence-force\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Moving north would compromise the Australian Defence Force"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/8c3d02d9201608da417178ebdfec6d5f","name":"Graeme Dunk","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-AU","@id":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9d610dcf98bddd9d228242077fa5be69?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/9d610dcf98bddd9d228242077fa5be69?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Graeme Dunk"},"url":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/author\/graeme-dunk\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54237"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/239"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54237"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54237\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54240,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54237\/revisions\/54240"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}