{"id":54302,"date":"2020-03-16T11:00:36","date_gmt":"2020-03-16T00:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=54302"},"modified":"2020-03-18T09:09:25","modified_gmt":"2020-03-17T22:09:25","slug":"how-the-coronavirus-crisis-was-made-in-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/how-the-coronavirus-crisis-was-made-in-china\/","title":{"rendered":"How the coronavirus crisis was made in China"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The new coronavirus, Covid-19, has spread<\/a> to more than 130 countries\u2014bringing social disruption, economic damage, sickness and death\u2014largely because authorities in China, where it emerged, initially suppressed information about it. And yet China is now acting as if its decision not to limit exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients and medical supplies\u2014of which it is the dominant<\/a> global supplier\u2014was a principled and generous act worthy of the world\u2019s gratitude.<\/p>\n

When the first clinical evidence<\/a> of a deadly new virus emerged in Wuhan, Chinese authorities failed to warn the public for weeks and harassed, reprimanded and detained<\/a> those who did. This approach is no surprise: China has a long history<\/a> of shooting the messenger. Its leaders covered up<\/a> severe acute respiratory syndrome, another coronavirus, for over a month after it emerged in 2002, and held the doctor who blew the whistle in military custody for 45 days. SARS ultimately affected<\/a> more than 8,000 people in 26 countries.<\/p>\n

This time around, the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s proclivity for secrecy was reinforced by President Xi Jinping\u2019s eagerness to be perceived as an in-control strongman, backed by a fortified CCP. But, as with the SARS epidemic, China\u2019s leaders could keep it under wraps for only so long. Once Wuhan-linked Covid-19 cases were detected in Thailand<\/a> and South Korea<\/a>, they had little choice but to acknowledge the epidemic.<\/p>\n

About two weeks after Xi rejected scientists\u2019 recommendation to declare a state of emergency, the government announced heavy-handed containment measures<\/a>, including putting millions in lockdown. But it was too late. Many thousands of Chinese were already infected with Covid-19, and the virus was rapidly spreading internationally. US National Security Adviser Robert O\u2019Brien has said<\/a> that China\u2019s initial cover-up \u2018probably cost the world community two months to respond\u2019, exacerbating the global outbreak.<\/p>\n

Beyond the escalating global health emergency, which has already killed thousands<\/a>, the pandemic has disrupted normal trade and travel, forced many school closures, roiled the international financial system and sunk global stock markets. With oil prices plunging, a global recession appears imminent.<\/p>\n

None of this would have happened China had responded quickly to evidence of the deadly new virus by warning the public and implementing containment measures. Indeed, Taiwan and Vietnam have shown the difference a proactive response can make.<\/p>\n

Taiwan, learning from its experience with SARS, instituted<\/a> preventive measures, including flight inspections, before China\u2019s leaders had even acknowledged the outbreak. Likewise, Vietnam quickly halted flights from China and closed all schools. Both responses recognised the need for transparency, including updates on the number and location of infections, and public advisories on how to guard against Covid-19.<\/p>\n

Thanks to their governments\u2019 policies, both Taiwan and Vietnam\u2014which normally receive huge numbers of travellers from China daily\u2014have kept total cases to fewer than 60. Neighbours that were slower to implement similar measures, such as Japan and South Korea, have been hit much harder.<\/p>\n

If any other country had triggered such a far-reaching, deadly, and above all preventable crisis, it would now be a global pariah. But China, with its tremendous economic clout, has largely escaped censure. Nonetheless, it will take considerable effort for Xi\u2019s regime to restore its standing at home and abroad.<\/p>\n

Perhaps that\u2019s why China\u2019s leaders are publicly congratulating themselves for not limiting exports of medical supplies and active ingredients used to make medicines, vitamins and vaccines. If China decided to ban such exports to the United States, the state-run news agency Xinhua recently noted<\/a>, the US would be \u2018plunged into a mighty sea of coronavirus\u2019. China, the article implies, would be justified in taking such a step. It would simply be retaliating against \u2018unkind\u2019 US measures taken after Covid-19\u2019s emergence, such as restricting entry to the US by Chinese and foreigners who had visited China. Isn\u2019t the world lucky that China is not that petty?<\/p>\n

Maybe so. But that is no reason to trust that China won\u2019t be petty in the future. After all, China\u2019s leaders have a record of halting<\/a> other strategic exports (such as rare-earth minerals) to punish countries that have defied them.<\/p>\n

Moreover, this is not the first time China has considered weaponising its dominance in global medical supplies and ingredients. Last year, Li Daokui, a prominent Chinese economist, suggested<\/a> curtailing Chinese exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients to the US as a countermeasure in the trade war. \u2018Once the export is reduced\u2019, Li noted<\/a>, \u2018the medical systems of some developed countries will not work\u2019.<\/p>\n

That is no exaggeration. A US Department of Commerce study found that 97% of all antibiotics<\/a> sold in the US come from China. \u2018If you\u2019re the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us\u2019, Gary Cohn, former chief economic adviser to US President Donald Trump, observed<\/a> last year, \u2018just stop sending us antibiotics\u2019.<\/p>\n

If the spectre of China exploiting its pharmaceutical clout for strategic ends were not enough to make the world rethink its cost-cutting outsourcing decisions, the unintended disruption of global supply chains by Covid-19 should be. In fact, China has had no choice but to fall behind in producing and exporting pharmaceutical ingredients since the outbreak\u2014a development that has constrained global supply and driven up<\/a> the prices of vital medicines.<\/p>\n

That has already forced India, the world\u2019s leading supplier of generic drugs, to restrict its own exports of some commonly used medicines. Almost 70% of the active ingredients for medicines made in India come<\/a> from China. If China\u2019s pharmaceutical plants don\u2019t return to full capacity soon, severe global medicine shortages will become likely.<\/p>\n

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs of Xi\u2019s increasing authoritarianism. It should be a wake-up call for political and business leaders who have accepted China\u2019s lengthening shadow over global supply chains for far too long. Only by loosening China\u2019s grip on global supply networks\u2014beginning with the pharmaceutical sector\u2014can the world be kept safe from the country\u2019s political pathologies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new coronavirus, Covid-19, has spread to more than 130 countries\u2014bringing social disruption, economic damage, sickness and death\u2014largely because authorities in China, where it emerged, initially suppressed information about it. 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