{"id":55117,"date":"2020-04-17T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T20:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=55117"},"modified":"2020-04-17T06:18:00","modified_gmt":"2020-04-16T20:18:00","slug":"lies-opportunity-and-the-coronavirus-beijing-engages-in-damage-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lies-opportunity-and-the-coronavirus-beijing-engages-in-damage-control\/","title":{"rendered":"Lies, opportunity and the coronavirus: Beijing engages in damage control"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Beijing is declaring success in its control of Covid-19. It\u2019s a funny kind of success, though, because on closer examination it looks more like what Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand are doing now.<\/p>\n

What we would call \u2018lockdown\u2019 is still in place across much of the country.<\/p>\n

In a country of 1.4 billion people, the Chinese government\u2019s reported number of Covid-19 cases is 83,403<\/a>, a figure which has pretty much flatlined since late February. That\u2019s less than 0.006% of the Chinese population.<\/p>\n

If you believe these official figures, then 99.994% of China\u2019s population is still at risk of infection (not counting under-reported and unknown asymptomatic cases).<\/p>\n

In comparison, Australia\u2019s 6,462 cases<\/a> make up 0.026% of our population, so 99.974% of our population is still at risk of infection. Our prime minister and chief medical officer are looking at ways to open some things up very slowly, but they\u2019re not about to reopen the economy based on these figures. They can\u2019t unless they want a pandemic that overwhelms our health system.<\/p>\n

In China too, without a vaccine or way to control the spread of the virus other than tight physical lockdowns, the epidemic will simply accelerate through other parts of the country.<\/p>\n

This pandemic started with a single infection in a wet market in Wuhan. It could get out of control again if just one infected individual slipped through Beijing\u2019s control measures. Asymptomatic cases mean this is very likely to happen if controls are really lifted in meaningful ways.<\/p>\n

So, any idea that the Chinese Communist Party has triumphed over Covid-19 is sadly wrong.<\/p>\n

The only way China can get chunks of its economy back to business is by maintaining constraints on people\u2019s movement or by sacrificing people\u2019s health and lives in pursuit of production. That second path would mean tolerating outbreaks and the deaths they bring, which would be a cynical move demonstrating that the regime valued power and perceived success over the lives of its people.<\/p>\n

Chinese officials were told by the party that in the \u2018people\u2019s war<\/a>\u2019 against Covid-19, rising infection numbers in their province or city would be a sign of failure. Since then, the official numbers across the country have fallen remarkably, with many areas now reporting no new cases.<\/p>\n

Some of this is driven by ruthless suppression measures that are what we all know now as social distancing\u2014although in China\u2019s authoritarian system, that includes security personnel in hazmat suits whacking<\/a> people with batons and dragging them into vans, as well as welding people into their apartments.<\/p>\n

Remember, though, that it was local officials in Wuhan who supressed early reporting of cases, so it\u2019s not a shock to see under-reporting of cases, given the pressure from the top.<\/p>\n

The CCP is also setting the scene to blame foreigners<\/a> coming into China for any second wave of infections, rather than the more likely source\u2014community transmission within China itself.<\/p>\n

Under the headlines touting President Xi Jinping\u2019s success, we see a different story. A spokesperson for Beijing\u2019s municipal government has announced<\/a> that \u2018epidemic control and prevention will probably become a long-term normal\u2019 in China\u2019s capital.<\/p>\n

Beijing has become a biohazard fortress protected against its own citizens and against foreigners flying in\u2014as we saw in footage of a UK Sky News crew returning to Beijing<\/a> recently.<\/p>\n

And Chinese authorities are putting out guidance like \u20183 tips for restaurants\u2019<\/a>: develop new menus for individual diners, sell food and vegetables online, offer takeaway.<\/p>\n

None of this sounds like the economy is back to anything like business as usual.<\/p>\n

In Wuhan itself, success looks a long way away, despite the central government\u2019s announcement<\/a> of the end of the lockdown there, during a curated tour of senior leaders, all wearing masks.<\/p>\n

Tall barriers surround many housing compounds. Some people in \u2018epidemic free\u2019 residential compounds are now being allowed to leave their homes for up to two hours<\/a> a day. Schools<\/a> and universities are still closed; masks, temperature checks and identity checks are mandatory; and the city is sprinkled with \u2018front line prevention and control positions\u2019. Some travel in and out of Hubei province will now be permitted, but with rigorous checks on a tightly controlled number of travellers.<\/p>\n

The measures in place in Wuhan look tighter than those in Australia\u2014and they\u2019re almost certain to remain so until a vaccine can be developed and rolled out.<\/p>\n

Why the propaganda and the pretence?<\/p>\n

The CCP wants to create the picture<\/a> that China is managing the epidemic better than anyone else.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s for two reasons, one domestic and one strategic.<\/p>\n

Domestically, the party needs the Chinese people to believe that it\u2019s doing a great job, to get past the nasty truth that party mismanagement and repression let the virus spiral out of control first in China and then globally. The party also needs to the Chinese people to believe that only its rule can protect them.<\/p>\n

Strategically, Xi\u2019s success narrative is all about contrasting China with the US: authoritarianism is good, democracy is bad and weak. If it can deceive the world with this false narrative, Beijing thinks it can gain global power and influence.<\/p>\n

As with all narratives, there has to be at least a tenuous connection to reality; it is true that the US isn\u2019t managing<\/a> the epidemic well.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for the party\u2019s narrative, however, there is a global best practice beacon of governance and Covid-19 control in North Asia\u2014and it\u2019s not on mainland China. It\u2019s the democracy of Taiwan, which, with a population about the size of Australia\u2019s, has 395 confirmed cases<\/a> and 6 deaths.<\/p>\n

Taiwan shows that global best practice for pandemic control doesn\u2019t come from Xi\u2019s authoritarian regime but from a true \u2018democracy with Chinese characteristics\u2019.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a confronting truth that is just not reportable or even sayable in mainland China.<\/p>\n

Other best practice countries are South Korea, New Zealand and Australia. And, like Taiwan, we\u2019ve been able to get our populations\u2019 cooperation without government thugs hitting them with batons or welding apartment doors shut.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the narrative\u2014and the truth\u2014the world needs to hear, including the 1.4 billion Chinese citizens living under party rule.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Beijing is declaring success in its control of Covid-19. It\u2019s a funny kind of success, though, because on closer examination it looks more like what Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand are doing now. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":766,"featured_media":55119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1383,52,2658],"class_list":["post-55117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-ccp","tag-china","tag-coronavirus","dinkus-coronavirus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLies, opportunity and the coronavirus: Beijing engages in damage control | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lies-opportunity-and-the-coronavirus-beijing-engages-in-damage-control\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lies, opportunity and the coronavirus: Beijing engages in damage control | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Beijing is declaring success in its control of Covid-19. 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