{"id":56353,"date":"2020-06-02T14:30:54","date_gmt":"2020-06-02T04:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=56353"},"modified":"2020-06-02T13:46:30","modified_gmt":"2020-06-02T03:46:30","slug":"chinas-wolf-warriors-spring-from-internal-problems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-wolf-warriors-spring-from-internal-problems\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s \u2018wolf warriors\u2019 spring from internal problems"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"598\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-56358\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GettyImages-1214181099-e1591069520623.jpg\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>In Australia, as in many other countries today, two self-isolating clusters of influencers have emerged that seek to steer dealings with the People\u2019s Republic of China.<\/p>\n<p>The two groups rarely intersect except to voice mutual suspicion. Neither deploys sufficient time or effort to understand what\u2019s happening deep within the PRC itself\u2014the principal driver of events and of the surrounding heightened rhetoric.<\/p>\n<p>They focus instead on how the PRC\u2019s impact washes up on our shores. They play in the shallows.<\/p>\n<p>One group has belatedly become so anxious about the PRC\u2019s ambitions for Australia that it believes we can and should decouple from China in all spheres. But today\u2019s turmoil cannot simply be rebadged as a new Cold War. The PRC is globally enmeshed, utterly unlike the Soviet Union of old.<\/p>\n<p>This is a comparatively tiny group.<\/p>\n<p>The second is the bulging circle comprising the elites whose broad backing the PRC has successfully enlisted\u2014chiefly in state and local governments, and among university administrations and corporate leaders.<\/p>\n<p>The members of this second group commonly recapitulate the key talking points of the party-state, as if they\u2019ve privately uncovered rare truths:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To criticise the PRC is to be racist, or to dog-whistle to racists.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The PRC and the communist party that\u2019s run it for 70 years cannot and must not be separated out from China and the Chinese people whom it rules.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even mild questioning of party-state strategies amounts to \u2018vilification\u2019.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rise of the PRC to global dominance, especially economically, is inexorable.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To criticise the PRC is tantamount to fawning on the US and endorsing President Donald Trump unquestioningly.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chinese people all align with the party\u2019s tightly scripted version of the country\u2019s history that dwells on its suffering, uniquely, a \u2018century of humiliation\u2019 visited on it by foreigners, thus requiring foreigners today scrupulously to avoid appearing to revisit that century.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taiwan must be viewed as a province of China, whose \u2018return\u2019 is inevitable.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China can only be governed effectively by a firm central autocratic ruler; democracy would be disastrous.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most importantly, do not discuss or question the conduct of the party or its leaders within China, despite the massive churning of the political and security structures and of key personnel driven by the restless, risk-taking Xi Jinping.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Chinese diplomats are succeeding in having these talking points amplified by those whom they have over the years courted, including by offering preferential access to and in the PRC.<\/p>\n<p>The success of this strategy relies overwhelmingly on China\u2019s continuing capacity to weaponise its economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>It will remain an important economic force. But the settings are changing, as testified by Premier Li Keqiang\u2019s abbreviated <a href=\"http:\/\/www.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2019-03\/16\/c_137899705.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">annual \u2018work report\u2019 <\/a>to the National People\u2019s Congress on 22 May. It set no growth target, instead stressing stability.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s understandable as China attempts to resurrect a coherent economic strategy following first Trump\u2019s trade war, then Covid-19. As the bottom line, China will battle, as Li said, to staunch unemployment, whose impact is already leaking alarmingly into the countryside, now bereft of much of its income as migrant factory workers lose their jobs.<\/p>\n<p>These challenges have come at a peculiarly bad time\u2014just as China was attempting to retool its economic fulcrum towards domestic consumption and away from exports and infrastructure spending. As a result of the latter\u2014intensified following the global financial crisis\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3018991\/chinas-total-debt-rises-over-300-cent-gdp-beijing-loosens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">total debt<\/a> had built by the start of 2019 to US$40 trillion, 304% of GDP and 15% of global debt, and each yuan spent has resulted in dwindling productivity.<\/p>\n<p>But Beijing has now committed \u00a53.75 trillion to back new local government special-purpose bonds, the chief source of finance for infrastructure. That\u2019s good news for Australian iron ore, coal and nickel producers; it buys a lot of steel, even though it also ensures that the debt burden keeps building.<\/p>\n<p>Xi, like Trump, is also championing self-reliance, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/made-china-2025-threat-global-trade\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">especially in technology<\/a>. But it needs, for now, the support of global tech to achieve this, yet those firms have begun disinvesting from China for a range of reasons, including production costs.<\/p>\n<p>Outward investment will continue, but at an even lower level. It simply can\u2019t be a priority. Australia has naturally experienced this decline. It\u2019s part of a broader trend that\u2019s being felt all over, especially in developed economies.<\/p>\n<p>After capital controls were toughened, China\u2019s direct investment overseas <a href=\"https:\/\/www.merics.org\/en\/papers-on-china\/chinese-fdi-in-europe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fell in 2017 by 53%<\/a>. The announced value of Chinese overseas mergers and acquisitions fell 31% last year, and Britain replaced China as one of the top three investors in Germany.<\/p>\n<p>Further pressure is being placed on China\u2019s financial system by Xi\u2019s hallmark Belt and Road Initiative. The program is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.beltandroad.news\/2019\/05\/17\/financing-and-funding-for-the-belt-road-initiative\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">built on<\/a> hundreds of billions of dollars of loans, chiefly coordinated through the Chinese Development Bank and China Exim Bank. Now, the borrowing countries are suffering grimly from the Covid-19 economic lockdown and urgently pressing for restructuring, repayment holidays or simply forgiveness.<\/p>\n<p>Conceding would cause economic\u2014and possibly popular\u2014trouble at home, while refusing to do so would risk shedding the global influence Beijing has so assiduously built up.<\/p>\n<p>Xi has just been forced to concede to an investigation by the World Health Organization into the origins of the pandemic, though he tried to spin that it\u2019s what he always wanted by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1188716.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">throwing forward<\/a> its timing.<\/p>\n<p>But this hasn\u2019t been a good year so far for him or for the PRC\u2014although Premier Li Keqiang naturally put a brave gloss on these dilemmas at the opening of the National People\u2019s Congress last week, declaring \u2018decisive victory\u2019 against the pandemic in Hubei province and \u2018pivotal progress\u2019 in the \u2018three critical battles\u2019 against poverty, pollution and the risk of a financial collapse.<\/p>\n<p>However, the PRC cannot now achieve Xi\u2019s ambitious goal of doubling the economy in the decade to the end of this year. That <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/china-economy\/article\/3051200\/china-may-adjust-2020-gdp-growth-target-due-coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">would require<\/a> about 6% growth in 2020. And how will he now seek to celebrate the party\u2019s centenary next year?<\/p>\n<p>Both of those Australian China cohorts predicate their positions on Beijing\u2019s continued surge in strength, while flagellating themselves about our getting too close, or too far, from their versions of China.<\/p>\n<p>But Australia\u2019s problems with Beijing result from the latter\u2019s travails\u2014and from the new directive for Team China to parade its wolf-warrior credentials\u2014more than from what might be called the Canberra consensus.<\/p>\n<p>This loose understanding of how best to relate to a changed China has won the support of a large majority of Australians. It encompasses most frontbenchers of both major parties, and many leaders in the defence, security and economic establishments.<\/p>\n<p>It champions Australia\u2019s important economic connections\u2014one-third of exports and one-quarter of imports\u2014and diverse people-to-people links with China, insofar as that is commensurate with safeguarding our core interests and values. Both have been put in play by Xi\u2019s Make China Great Again program, which is tangling riskily with countries everywhere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In Australia, as in many other countries today, two self-isolating clusters of influencers have emerged that seek to steer dealings with the People\u2019s Republic of China. The two groups rarely intersect except to voice mutual &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1053,"featured_media":56358,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2212,2531,1007],"class_list":["post-56353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-australia-china-relations","tag-debt","tag-economic-growth"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>China\u2019s \u2018wolf warriors\u2019 spring from internal problems | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-wolf-warriors-spring-from-internal-problems\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s \u2018wolf warriors\u2019 spring from internal problems | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In Australia, as in many other countries today, two self-isolating clusters of influencers have emerged that seek to steer dealings with the People\u2019s Republic of China. The two groups rarely intersect except to voice mutual ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-wolf-warriors-spring-from-internal-problems\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ASPI.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-06-02T04:30:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-06-02T03:46:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GettyImages-1214181099-e1591069520623.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"598\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Rowan Callick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ASPI_org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rowan Callick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/\",\"name\":\"The Strategist\",\"description\":\"ASPI&#039;s analysis and commentary site\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/chinas-wolf-warriors-spring-from-internal-problems\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GettyImages-1214181099-e1591069520623.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GettyImages-1214181099-e1591069520623.jpg\",\"width\":900,\"height\":598,\"caption\":\"BEIJING, CHINA - MAY 20: Soldiers of the People's Liberation Army's Honour Guard Battalion wear protective masks as they stand at attention in front of photo of China's president Xi Jinping at their barracks outside the Forbidden City, near Tiananmen Square, on May 20, 2020 in Beijing, China. 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