{"id":56748,"date":"2020-06-18T12:13:08","date_gmt":"2020-06-18T02:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=56748"},"modified":"2020-06-18T12:13:08","modified_gmt":"2020-06-18T02:13:08","slug":"what-japans-u-turn-on-aegis-ashore-says-about-us-alliance-management","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-japans-u-turn-on-aegis-ashore-says-about-us-alliance-management\/","title":{"rendered":"What Japan\u2019s U-turn on Aegis Ashore says about US alliance management"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Without informing its US ally, Japan this week abruptly put on hold<\/a> the planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore systems that were intended to bolster its defences against North Korean and Chinese missiles. Some commentators<\/a> were quick to denounce the decision, arguing it would reduce Japan\u2019s defence capability and strain the US\u2013Japan alliance.<\/p>\n

Not only are those risks overstated, but Tokyo\u2019s action is also prudent for domestic, operational, strategic and alliance-management reasons. In fact, it\u2019s crucial in what it says about Japan\u2019s emerging response to a new strategic environment and the flawed approach to allied \u2018burden-sharing\u2019 under President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Japan approved plans to purchase two Aegis Ashore systems at the end of 2017. A land-based version of the ship-based Aegis ballistic missile and air defence system, Aegis Ashore is capable of operating Standard Missile 3 and Standard Missile 6 interceptors.<\/p>\n

The acquisition was seen by some analysts<\/a> as a milestone in a more robust Japanese defence posture against North Korean and Chinese missile threats. Pyongyang\u2019s launches in August and September 2017 of two nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles over Japanese territory appeared to demonstrate the necessity for such systems. But the decision was also an attempt by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s government to accommodate Trump\u2019s pressure for greater burden-sharing in the early days of his administration.<\/p>\n

However, since then the program has run into domestic problems. Severe local opposition<\/a> to Aegis Ashore in Akita, in Japan\u2019s north, led the Abe government to scrap plans to deploy it there last month. Yet, the second planned site in the southwestern prefecture of Yamaguchi had also already met with residents\u2019 disapproval<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The program\u2019s price tag has ballooned from an estimated US$2.15 billion in 2017 to more than US$4 billion. And Tokyo was reportedly not informed<\/a> that it would have to pay for missiles launched in Hawaii to test the system\u2019s radar. Finally, the Abe government<\/a> says it only learned in May that significant technical modifications would be required to reduce the risk of the rocket booster falling into populated areas. Domestically, therefore, putting the Aegis Ashore procurement on ice ends a political liability for the Abe government.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also sensible to forgo the Aegis Ashore deployment from a Japanese operational and strategic perspective. Despite what ballistic missile defence enthusiasts might claim, it\u2019s a defensive, static land-based system whose effectiveness against a sophisticated missile threat from China or North Korea is highly questionable.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s expensive preoccupation with missile defence systems has already put a heavy burden on its navy\u2019s Aegis destroyers, which nevertheless should still be able to cope with a potential North Korean attack.<\/p>\n

But to better deal with the emerging military challenge from China, which is the real problem for Japan, its defence force would be far better off investing in more flexible offensive capabilities designed to complicate China\u2019s (and North Korea\u2019s) planning and operations, including mobile strike systems, hypersonic missiles, space assets and submarines. Rather than pursuing Aegis Ashore in a \u2018sunk cost\u2019<\/a> approach, the Japan Self-Defense Force could now reinvest the money in other, more urgent capability areas.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s decision also sends a clear message to the US about its position on future alliance relations. The Trump administration\u2019s relentless insistence that Japan pay more for hosting US troops on its territory in exchange for protection is likely to have unintended consequences.<\/p>\n

Tokyo has undoubtedly been watching Washington\u2019s attempts to push both its South Korean<\/a> and German<\/a> allies around through blatant public threats about troop withdrawals if they don\u2019t increase their defence spending. This approach is based on a fundamental misunderstanding: US allies, including Japan, are acutely aware that in the emerging strategic competition with China and Russia, America needs its allies more, not less. Repeated public US demands to \u2018do more\u2019 are no longer sufficient to persuade or even coerce allies, if they ever were.<\/p>\n

Tokyo has learned by now that appeasing Trump through the purchase of expensive defence equipment such as Aegis Ashore and the F-35 fighter<\/a> hasn\u2019t worked. Instead, he has come back to ask for more.<\/p>\n

But in this new strategic environment and in the context of upcoming negotiations with the US about Japan\u2019s \u2018host nation\u2019 support, Tokyo is likely to take a harder line. The Aegis Ashore system could then be used as a bargaining chip<\/a> for Tokyo in discussions about future burden-sharing within the alliance. Alternatively, Japan could offer its financial and technical cooperation to the US on other military systems of interest.<\/p>\n

As the US will find out, pushing allies to \u2018do more\u2019 comes with a price tag as these nations become more inclined to push for greater autonomy about their defence decision-making, including on weapon systems. Japan is no exception. Indeed, Tokyo\u2019s decision to cancel the Aegis Ashore acquisition for now without prior consultation with Washington is very much a case in point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Without informing its US ally, Japan this week abruptly put on hold the planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore systems that were intended to bolster its defences against North Korean and Chinese missiles. Some commentators …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":56757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[40,135,1202,31],"class_list":["post-56748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-alliance-2","tag-japan","tag-missile-defence","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Japan\u2019s U-turn on Aegis Ashore says about US alliance management | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-japans-u-turn-on-aegis-ashore-says-about-us-alliance-management\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Japan\u2019s U-turn on Aegis Ashore says about US alliance management | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Without informing its US ally, Japan this week abruptly put on hold the planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore systems that were intended to bolster its defences against North Korean and Chinese missiles. 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