{"id":56964,"date":"2020-06-25T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2020-06-25T01:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=56964"},"modified":"2020-06-25T10:56:50","modified_gmt":"2020-06-25T00:56:50","slug":"kim-goes-back-on-script","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kim-goes-back-on-script\/","title":{"rendered":"Kim goes back on script"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

Like the leading character in a long-running television series, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un kicked off the latest crisis on the Korean peninsula with familiar theatrics. After cutting off all communications<\/a> with South Korea earlier this month, the Kim regime blew up the building in which it had previously hosted South Korean diplomats. It redeployed<\/a> troops into demilitarised border areas and issued renewed threats<\/a> of violence against the South. Those displays of bombast followed Kim\u2019s scene-stealing performance in May, when he announced<\/a> that North Korea would boost its investment in \u2018nuclear war deterrence\u2019.<\/p>\n

Yesterday, however, North Korean state media reported<\/a> that the country\u2019s Central Military Commission has decided to suspend \u2018military action plans\u2019 against South Korea. How long this interlude will last is anyone\u2019s guess. The meeting, chaired by Kim, also reportedly considered documents outlining measures for \u2018further bolstering the war deterrent of the country\u2019.<\/p>\n

Washington has so far ignored the latest episode, and for good reason. After two years of playing along with President Donald Trump\u2019s made-for-TV summitry, Kim is convinced that the \u2018bromance\u2019 storyline has run its course<\/a>, and that an older narrative will keep his ratings up.<\/p>\n

Having banked his political gains from Trump\u2019s fecklessness, Kim is now unambiguously asserting North Korea\u2019s status as a nuclear power. To drive that point home, he promoted the general in charge of the nuclear program to serve as vice-chair of the Central Military Commission, while also rewarding 69 other generals<\/a> who have contributed to the country\u2019s strategic success in recent years.<\/p>\n

Since the failed nuclear summit<\/a> in Hanoi in February 2019, Kim has been consistent in both word and deed. Last April, he warned that Trump had until the end of last year to lift US sanctions on North Korea. Since then, the North has continued its short-range missile testing<\/a> (chalking up noteworthy successes<\/a>), expanded<\/a> a missile production plant and built new support facilities<\/a> for its missile program.<\/p>\n

Clearly, Trump\u2019s \u2018maximum pressure\u2019 campaign to choke off North Korea\u2019s clandestine sources of income and trade has utterly failed to alter the course of the regime\u2019s nuclear and missile programs. American officials acknowledged as much last month when the US Department of Justice indicted<\/a> 28 North Korean and five Chinese officials and bankers for (successfully) circumventing the sanctions regime. Since 2014, the indictment alleges, the North\u2019s global network of front companies has\u2014with China\u2019s help\u2014funnelled US$2.5 billion into Kim\u2019s nuclear weapon, missile and high-tech programs.<\/p>\n

Kim has been no less consistent in expanding North Korea\u2019s massive conventional military capacity. While its military hardware remains far inferior to the US-furnished armour and aircraft across the border, the North has nonetheless managed to upgrade both the accuracy and reach of its weapons. It has also placed 70%<\/a> of its 1.1 million-strong army within 100 kilometres of the demilitarised zone, putting South Korea\u2019s capital well within its sights. By one estimate<\/a>, the North could rain down 25,000 artillery rounds on the Seoul metropolitan area\u2014including a major US military compound\u2014in the space of just 10 minutes.<\/p>\n

To be sure, US and South Korean forces would have a major technological edge in an all-out war on the peninsula. But even a short-lived conflict would be devastating to Seoul, which is home to some 25 million people<\/a> and accounts for half of South Korea\u2019s population and 70% of its GDP.<\/p>\n

Against this background, Trump\u2019s effort to extort<\/a> South Korea to quadruple its financial support for US forces stationed there is astonishingly irresponsible. Although negotiations to renew the expired US\u2013South Korean cost-sharing pact remain at an impasse, a new stopgap deal<\/a> at least ends the furlough of 4,000 South Koreans who work at US facilities. But with Seoul temporarily assuming the cost of these salaries, the deal will hardly improve Trump\u2019s standing in the eyes of South Koreans.<\/p>\n

Kim can take further comfort from the fact that Trump has also been browbeating Japan, demanding<\/a> that it, too, boost its financial support for US forces within its borders. Though Japan is crucial to South Korea\u2019s defence, the two countries have a rocky relationship. Last year, South Korea threatened<\/a> to pull out of a bilateral intelligence-sharing arrangement before reversing course under US pressure. As in South Korea, most Japanese have no confidence<\/a> in Trump\u2019s handling of international affairs. Such factors inevitably will contribute to diplomatic disarray between the US, South Korea and Japan, all of which will benefit Kim.<\/p>\n

In addition to undermining US alliances in the region, Trump is also doing Kim a favour by escalating tensions with China, which now will be less inclined to rein in its client state. With China accounting for over 90%<\/a> of North Korea\u2019s trade, Kim has been cultivating<\/a> a closer relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who visited Pyongyang<\/a> last June. That meeting and others suggest that China has been neither surprised nor particularly concerned about Kim\u2019s behaviour.<\/p>\n

This is not to suggest that Kim has clear sailing ahead. Owing to US sanctions<\/a>, limited food production and various reform failures, North Korea faces formidable challenges at home. Following a speech at the Workers\u2019 Party of Korea\u2019s annual plenum in December, public remarks issued by Kim in February and April suggest<\/a> that he may have spent the first half of this year focusing on domestic priorities. By forcing the closure of the Chinese border, the Covid-19 pandemic has undoubtedly hurt the North\u2019s faltering economy<\/a>. And the fact that Kim has imposed tougher oversight on implementation of his previous economic reforms suggests that more domestic trouble may be on the horizon.<\/p>\n

With or without economic problems, Kim is unlikely to deviate from his family\u2019s well-rehearsed oeuvre. Like past performances by his late father and grandfather, his repertoire will continue to feature threats of violence, sensational provocations and potentially even military incidents like the shelling of South Korean islands<\/a> a decade ago. All signs indicate more brinkmanship on the part of the North. The leading character in the Korean peninsula\u2019s long-running psychodrama may still be new, but the play remains the same.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Like the leading character in a long-running television series, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un kicked off the latest crisis on the Korean peninsula with familiar theatrics. After cutting off all communications with South Korea earlier …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":668,"featured_media":56966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[702,86,356,211],"class_list":["post-56964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-north-korea","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-south-korea"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKim goes back on script | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/kim-goes-back-on-script\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kim goes back on script | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Like the leading character in a long-running television series, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un kicked off the latest crisis on the Korean peninsula with familiar theatrics. 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