{"id":57442,"date":"2020-07-10T15:20:46","date_gmt":"2020-07-10T05:20:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=57442"},"modified":"2020-07-10T15:59:56","modified_gmt":"2020-07-10T05:59:56","slug":"what-caused-the-explosion-at-a-nuclear-facility-in-central-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-caused-the-explosion-at-a-nuclear-facility-in-central-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"What caused the explosion at a nuclear facility in central Iran?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/figure>\n

It seems increasingly likely that the 2 July explosion at the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Centre<\/a>, located near the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, was the result of sabotage. And, despite initial speculation that it was the result of a cyberattack<\/a> against critical operational control systems\u2014and thus of a similar vein to the Stuxnet attack<\/a> that took down multiple centrifuge cascades at Natanz in 2010\u2014the simpler and more plausible explanation is that the explosion was caused by a bomb.<\/p>\n

Despite claims of responsibility by a previously unknown group calling itself the Homeland Cheetahs<\/a> that supposedly comprises disgruntled Iranian former military and security services personnel, it now appears widely accepted that Israel was behind the attack. There has been further speculation that Israel was also behind other curious incidents<\/a> that have occurred at Iranian facilities in recent weeks\u2014including explosions at the gas storage area near the Khojir missile facility<\/a> at Parchin, at a medical facility<\/a> in Tehran, and at a factory<\/a> south of Tehran\u2014although there is as yet no evidence of foul play in these events.<\/p>\n

Multiple media outlets\u2014including the New York Times<\/em><\/a> and the Washington Post<\/em><\/a>\u2014have referenced intelligence officials attributing the Natanz attack to Israel. And while Tehran was slow in apportioning blame, on 7 July it accused Israel<\/a> of being behind the attack, saying it was \u2018a \u201cwake-up call\u201d meant to deter Iran amid advancements in its nuclear program, and \u2026 [that] those who planted the explosives had significant insight into the country\u2019s nuclear program\u2019.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

Satellite image\u00a0taken on 8 July of the blast site at the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant.<\/em><\/p>\n

Source: Nathan Ruser\/Maxar Technologies.<\/em><\/p>\n

Israel has form in using lethal force against high-value nuclear targets in the Middle East. Between 2010 and 2012, Israeli agents murdered four Iranian nuclear scientists<\/a>. Earlier, Israel launched military strikes<\/a> that destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981 and the Syrian Al Kibar reactor in 2007, the two most obvious manifestations of the Begin doctrine<\/a>, which stipulates that Israel cannot allow any of its regional adversaries to develop a nuclear weapons capability.<\/p>\n

However, two key issues remain unresolved. First, it\u2019s not clear that the explosion at the centrifuge assembly centre will be a significant a setback for Iran\u2019s enrichment capabilities. Second, if it is accepted that Israel was behind the incident, it\u2019s difficult to assess whether the Natanz attack was merely a warning to Tehran or represents a new stage in Israeli efforts to curtail Tehran\u2019s nuclear program. It\u2019s possible that the attacks were also intended to provoke a reaction from Tehran that would justify more punitive and definitive military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities by either Israel or the US.<\/p>\n

On the first question, the assembly centre is a critical element of Iran\u2019s capacity to build more advanced centrifuges for its uranium-enrichment program. According to the Institute for Science and International Security<\/a>, the workshop was \u2018dedicated to assembling, on a production-scale, advanced centrifuge rotors, bellows, end caps, and other key subcomponents\u2019 for Iran\u2019s enrichment program.<\/p>\n

Imagery published by the institute shows significant damage to the facility, including structural damage, likely rendering the facility and all the equipment within it inoperable. Following the explosion, Tehran admitted<\/a> that the site contained advanced equipment and precision measuring devices that were either destroyed or damaged, and conceded that the incident will slow down the development and expansion of advanced centrifuges.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the broader impact of this attack on Iran\u2019s enrichment capabilities may be limited and may do little more than delay Tehran bringing online more advanced centrifuge designs. Some analysts have estimated<\/a> that the explosion at Natanz will set back Iran\u2019s nuclear program by more than a year, whereas others<\/a> concluded that the explosion would have little immediate effect on Iran\u2019s two existing uranium-enrichment facilities.<\/p>\n

Others<\/a> have concluded that the attack may do little more than encourage Iran to carry out nuclear-related activities in secret rather than in publicly declared facilities subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency. As noted by Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Proliferation Project at the Middleborough Institute of International Studies, \u2018You can set them back a few months, but is it really worth it if you don\u2019t have a plan for solving the nuclear problem during those few months?\u2019<\/p>\n

The timing of the Natanz incident is also noteworthy, given it occurred less than a month after the release of the latest IAEA report<\/a> on Iran\u2019s nuclear program. The report confirmed that Iran had further increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium from around 1,050 kilograms to more than 1,500 kilograms during the reporting period. The IAEA also noted its concern<\/a> that Tehran was continuing to deny inspectors complementary access under its additional protocol to two locations of proliferation concern and failing to respond to questions on possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities.<\/p>\n

The incident at Natanz clearly appears to have been a targeted attack by Israel on a key, but not critical, component of Iran\u2019s nuclear program. If Israel wants to conclusively stop Iran\u2019s nuclear activities, in accordance with the Begin doctrine, it is highly unlikely that decision-makers will assess the damage wrought at Natanz as sufficient to do the job, especially given growing concerns about Iran\u2019s success in shortening the breakout time for realising a nuclear weapons capability.<\/p>\n

Importantly, it\u2019s highly likely that Israel also thinks that it\u2019s well past the time to be issuing warnings. So, the Natanz attack may plausibly be but one part of a broader Israeli strategy with a more serious end goal in mind. But the clock is ticking if Israel is seeking to definitively resolve the thorny question of Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions before the US presidential election in November. If it is, then we\u2019re likely to see more attacks on sensitive Iranian facilities in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It seems increasingly likely that the 2 July explosion at the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Centre, located near the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, was the result of sabotage. And, despite initial speculation that it was …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":624,"featured_media":57444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[247,240,218],"class_list":["post-57442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-middle-east"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat caused the explosion at a nuclear facility in central Iran? | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/what-caused-the-explosion-at-a-nuclear-facility-in-central-iran\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What caused the explosion at a nuclear facility in central Iran? | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It seems increasingly likely that the 2 July explosion at the Iran Centrifuge Assembly Centre, located near the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, was the result of sabotage. 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