{"id":57505,"date":"2020-07-14T11:00:48","date_gmt":"2020-07-14T01:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/?p=57505"},"modified":"2020-07-14T10:56:55","modified_gmt":"2020-07-14T00:56:55","slug":"lessons-from-the-polish-opposition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lessons-from-the-polish-opposition\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons from the Polish opposition"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Although Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski did not come out on top in Poland\u2019s presidential election, the result represents a turning point in European politics. The nationalist\u2013populist tide has peaked. To paraphrase Winston Churchill\u2019s famous quip<\/a> following the Second Battle of El Alamein in 1942, this may not be the beginning of the end of contemporary authoritarian nationalism, but is at least the end of the beginning.<\/p>\n

To be sure, Poland\u2019s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party will continue its conflict with the European Union over the party\u2019s efforts to undermine judicial independence and the rule of law at home. And PiS Chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski will doubtless pursue a takeover of Poland\u2019s remaining independent media\u2014the next big item on his authoritarian agenda. Spared from having to engage in political trench warfare with a new, hostile president, the PiS government will be able to keep frustrating the European project from within.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, anti-populists can take comfort in the fact that Polish President Andrzej Duda only narrowly managed to win re-election, despite having the full force of taxpayer-funded state media on his side. In fact, the Polish opposition\u2019s surprisingly strong performance offers several lessons for all who still believe in constitutional democracy and the rule of law, regardless of where they live.<\/p>\n

First, when challenging a populist government, it\u2019s critical to build the broadest possible coalition. Authoritarian populists in countries like Turkey and Hungary keep winning elections because their opponents are perpetually riven by internal conflicts. Anti-populists must put aside longstanding disagreements over issues of culture (LGBTQ rights and the like) and economic policy (such as protectionism and income redistribution) so that they can concentrate on the key task: ejecting populists from power. Failure to unite is what doomed the \u2018remain\u2019 cause in Britain\u2019s Brexit debate.<\/p>\n

Anti-populists also must learn to consolidate their base as quickly and effectively as populists do. Polarisation, the quintessential populist political tactic, has unfortunately become an intrinsic part of modern politics more generally. Understanding this is particularly important immediately after populists rise or return to power. At that point, anti-populist forces will face years of government smears and are at risk of being demobilised by defeat.<\/p>\n

The past few years have shown that when \u2018they\u2019 go low, you have little choice but to go even lower. The impressive, viral \u2018Mourning in America<\/a>\u2018 ad issued by the \u2018Never Trump\u2019 Republicans<\/a> of the Lincoln Project in the United States is a good example of punching back effectively. (Of course, countering populist messages is easier when the populists in power have proved to be more corrupt, incompetent and self-seeking than the so-called elites they replaced.)<\/p>\n

The fact is that for those seeking to dislodge populists from power, \u2018positive messaging\u2019 is for the birds. So, too, are efforts to create an entirely new party or \u2018core\u2019 in the anti-populist movement. The democratic opposition in Poland wasted several years trying out three new parties, each of which was supposed to represent a fresh, non-discredited, \u2018positive\u2019 alternative to PiS. Yet in the end, it was Civic Platform (PO)\u2014the party of Donald Tusk<\/a>, a former Polish prime minister and president of the European Council\u2014that almost wrested the presidency from Kaczynski\u2019s grasp.<\/p>\n

That said, a positive message during the last stretch of an electoral campaign, when power is still up for grabs, can be useful in broadening the anti-populist appeal and reaching independent voters. Often, as was the case in Poland, such an approach means putting a new generation of politicians front and centre. This is especially necessary when the main anti-populist opposition party is as well established as PO is.<\/p>\n

Finally, it\u2019s important to remember that because populists naturally thrive on being in opposition, they usually have difficulties governing effectively. It\u2019s no coincidence that US President Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Russian President Vladimir Putin have all responded disastrously to the Covid-19 crisis. When politicians are focused on dominating the hourly news cycle and revelling in political theatre, there\u2019s little time left for crafting effective solutions to real-world problems.<\/p>\n

The upshot is that as long as the institutions of rules-based democracy can be maintained (especially in the case of a free, independent press), populist governments will be transitory. In Poland, the PiS government will face a deep structural problem in the years ahead. While Duda won decisively among voters over the age of 50, Trzaskowski carried younger voters by a 22-point margin.<\/p>\n

The only defence PiS has against the march of time is to shift ever further towards authoritarianism, and then to outright dictatorship. That will put it in direct conflict with the democracies of Western Europe, the EU, and potentially the US after its own presidential election in November, provided that Trump\u2019s opponents adapt the lessons of Trzaskowski\u2019s near miss.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski did not come out on top in Poland\u2019s presidential election, the result represents a turning point in European politics. The nationalist\u2013populist tide has peaked. To paraphrase Winston Churchill\u2019s famous quip …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1173,"featured_media":57507,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[753,325,955,1734],"class_list":["post-57505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general","tag-election","tag-europe","tag-poland","tag-populism"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLessons from the Polish opposition | The Strategist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.ru\/lessons-from-the-polish-opposition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lessons from the Polish opposition | The Strategist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Although Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski did not come out on top in Poland\u2019s presidential election, the result represents a turning point in European politics. 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